Storms and Convective discussion - June 2024

[LightningLover]

 ChannelThunder Yep, GFS is the current winner amongst the models in my eyes! Looks like thundery activity in a line from the IOW to East Sussex, Travelling N/NNE. I also note some very high Theta-E values, higher surface temps and higher 850's  on that run! I await the UKV 15z.

Edited June 16, 2024 by LightningLover

[A Face like Thunder]

On 15/06/2024 at 14:24, Rush2019 said:

ell out over the Dee Estuary beginning to anvil out.  Cell further inland is the active one over Chester currently, looking at the angle of this cam.  Curtesy of meteoblue.

Yes, we caught the edge of that one, when we visited Chester yesterday afternoon. Quite spectacular for a while. I'm not sure whether Chester races was affected but had cleared away by the time we left the city at 6pm.

[ChannelThunder]

 LightningLover Yeah, tonight's runs are key. If they shunt it eastwards then it's game over as we've seen in the past. 

[Robert1981]

A bit of picture editing from yesterday's lightning. 

[ChannelThunder]

 LightningLover Not a good start to the evening runs; a Kent Clipper at very best on the GFS.

[LightningLover]

 ChannelThunder Come on UKV, show them who's boss!

[ChannelThunder]

 LightningLover How lazy is this from the Met Office to end the week ahead forecast with that 4am UKV still and just go with that for Friday's forecast?!

[LightningLover]

 ChannelThunder  Lazy, or optimistic? Haha!

[Liamkaboom]

 Metwatch Luckily hasn't stayed under 10 pages!

[Southern Storm]

 ChannelThunder It does make you wonder, it might not be laziness though and more to do with the fact that if a forecast turns out to be incorrect, it's easier to just blame the models 

Also, the Met office got it wrong a few years ago when they forecast heavy rain and storms for central southern areas on a bank holiday weekend, but instead of storms, the weather ended up being glorious (no surprise there then )  anyway, a large amount of tourists stayed away, which resulted in a major loss of revenue for local tourism businesses in Bournemouth and surrounding areas, loss of revenue is one thing, but loss of life is a whole different matter.

I wouldn't be surprised if forecasters are discouraged from adding the human factor into public forecasting, so they're not held accountable when things don't go as planned.

I'll be sticking with this forum, it's way ahead of the met when we are in the run up to a convective spell, with thanks to some very knowledgeable members on here! You know who you are 

 

Edited June 16, 2024 by Southern Storm

[LightningLover]

@ChannelThunder Pretty naff on the 15z UKV too I'm afraid- not even a Kent clipper. 

Edited June 16, 2024 by LightningLover

[WeatherArc]

Not really uk related but thought i might post this in here just for anyone interested,

10 years ago today was one of the most legendary storm chases of all time.

A single, discrete cyclic supercell in Pilger,  northern Nebraska would produce multiple photogenic, violent tornadoes. At one time two tornadoes were on the ground simultaneously producing high-end EF4 damage.

Since then no event across the world has come close to Pilger, its rare enough to have twin tornadoes let alone have both of them be long tracked and violent.

Pecos Hanks vid on Pilger is one of the best storm chasing vids ever imo, great watch.

Sadly, 2 people would lose their lives and the town of Pilger itself would take a direct hit, resulting in devastating damage. Damage from the different tornadoes is listed in the twitter thread below but fairly obvious that multiple of the tornadoes that day flirted with EF5 damage thresholds.  

 

Overall, its a day that will live forever in storm chasing history for both its highs and lows.

For anyone interested in the meteorology behind this event,  Trey has an amazing vid detailing both the setup and storm behaviour.

 

Edited June 16, 2024 by WeatherArc

[Ryan H]

 WeatherArc Oh yes the Pilger twins. Along with the 1990 Hesston & Goessel, Kansas Tornadoes, they are a good example of the Tornado family.

[LightningLover]

So... close... I think this would at least give us a distant show.

[Thunders]

 LightningLover still not optimal but still

[Thunders]

Last time we were forecast something like that, didn’t we end up with it  travelling really far west 

[LightningLover]

Different set up with that one- The whole system was travelling WNW with the 500hPa winds, and it was well advertised to do so in the models! The one potentially coming will be going N/NNE by the looks of things, staying confined to the higher WBPT air mass near and over the continent.

Edited June 17, 2024 by LightningLover

[Windblade]

Had a few quiet rumbles saturday during heavy showers that kept passing over. Nothing to write home about. Looks like the main activity missed us.  Still waiting for some proper stormy weather this year...

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like this back edge developing storm is trying to form some needle funnels…..?

[Electricmumma]

 LightningLover closer please 

[matty40s]

Some very disturbed lowering around Northampton after a day of blue sky and small cumulus towers.

 

And the opposite direction...

[Metwatch]

Shower passing to the south just now

Also thought this was cool yesterday; Cumulus rising then reaching a stable layer and spreading horizontally becoming part of the stratocumulus veil. 

Edited June 17, 2024 by Metwatch

[ChannelThunder]

Shame about Thursday night. Someone in Benelux is going to get an absolute humdinger while we're on the more stable western flank of the low. 

Switching attention to the signs of an upcoming hot spell that could go plumey. Now I've said that, watch the next ECM tonight completely back-track on the stunner of a 00z it produced.

[The Tall Weatherman]

It looks like we could see some storms breaking out tomorrow across Central swaths and the north. Storms rattle down south during the afternoon as the Arome has shown in the past multiple runs.

Storms may lack lightning though and strength due to less than adequate Cape. An active storm along a convergence zone could still happen though.

 

[Rush2019]

https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes

There's some interest tomorrow, certainly worth a watch.