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Model Output Discussion - Summer 2024


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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

Been out late tonight, so my much-delayed post on the 12z ECM clusters is here now (after which I'm off to bed!).

Days 3-4

Not worth going into too much detail here. All five clusters show a weakening of high pressure from Monday into Tuesday. Clusters 2, 3 and 5 (collectively 60% of the ensemble) hold out some hope of keeping the northerly away from the south up to Tuesday. Clusters 1 and 4 (total of 40%) bring the northerly much further south. The OP was in cluster 2.

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Days 5-7

At this range, both clusters currently look poor for Weds-Fri. However there are some important differences. Cluster 1 (55%) has a much deeper low directly to the north of the UK and any heights are much further away. This is more likely to remain unsettled for the whole of the UK.

Meanwhile, Cluster 2 (45%) is not quite as bad. The low is somewhat weaker, and by day 7 (Friday) it is moving away eastwards, which should already allow something a bit drier for more western areas. The OP was in cluster 2.

Overall though, both options at this range look relatively cool and unsettled for the country as a whole. Best chances for something a bit more mixed rather than poor is probably further south.

image.thumb.png.d12e5e42aaec86ac7cb8bd42b6348d03.png

Days 8-10

A lot more options opening up at this range. Cluster 1 (35%) keeps things relatively cool and unsettled with a low directly over the UK up to day 10. Cluster 2 (25%) starts unsettled at day 8, but heights build through and to the east of the UK by day 10, which means we end on a dry and very warm or even hot note.

Cluster 3 (25%) starts unsettled but ends on a benign note. High pressure out to the west so fairly warm rather than very warm, but mainly dry. Some showers into the east still possible. Cluster 4 (15%) starts unsettled, but by day 10 has a very strong UK high. Likely a very warm outcome with the potential for heat to build over a number of days if it persisted.

Overall at this time frame, a lot to unpick. Still a reasonable chance of unsettled conditions continuing, which you'd be foolish to discount. But equally, there is the tantalising prospect of something much warmer. Fascinating times for model watching.

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Days 11-15

Always just for fun when looking at the extended range, but here goes. Clusters 1 and 2 are equal, and collectively make up 75% of the ensemble.

Cluster 1 (37%) starts unsettled but fairly warm at day 11. It then builds a very strong high just to the north of the UK. A very warm option with winds likely from some sort of southerly or south-easterly direction. Cluster 2 (37%) also starts unsettled, brings in a brief plume chance at day 13, but then returns unsettled conditions from the west by day 15.

Cluster 3 (25%) starts settled and warm at day 11, then turns somewhat cooler but still settled as the high pulls out into the Atlantic by day 13. By day 15 we're back into unsettled conditions with a likely NW to N wind direction.

image.thumb.png.f9f64d09227f9878cc899cfca75847a6.png

Summary

A lot of options opening up beyond day 7 now, as I suspected might happen in yesterday's update. Some absolutely fantastic options are available, but equally so are some downright terrible ones (if it's warm and settled you're after). Most of the better options rely on the low pressure from Weds-Fri next week heading off to the north or east. The worst options result from it staying close to the UK.

In the wider picture, there's also a signal associated with the Greenland heights, as is to be expected. It's not a universal rule, and there are always exceptions, but in this case every single cluster that is warm and dry for the UK beyond day 7 also at least weakens the Greenland high signal. Every option with a strong Greenland high is on the cool and unsettled side of things.

The optimist in me wants to say we have a decent chance of a proper early summer heatwave some time from the 10th or so onwards. But the head says the unsettled options have to disappear from the output first, and to do that we really do need shut of the Greenland heights, which then increases the chance of the trough clearing the UK. Lots to think about, and the 10th June is still a fair way away in modelling terms. We need to see where it goes over the next few days.

In the shorter term, I hope everyone enjoys an at least reasonably warm and dry weekend, and as for next week, the best I can say is that the worst of the weather looks to coincide with the working week rather than the weekend. That's my best attempt to put a positive spin on the northerly trough I'm afraid!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Summer arrives on week 2 on this mornings gfs run! Nothing extreme but at least some warmth! Let’s hope it’s a trend 

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Posted
  • Location: Crystal Palace, South London (300 feet asl)
  • Location: Crystal Palace, South London (300 feet asl)

 clark3r If only it had been four months ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire

Very good run from the GFS with the cold air being swept away fairly quickly and high pressure becoming established. Sadly though the ECM is having none of it and is showing the cold air lingering- quite exceptional really for June. 

This run is arguably even worse than last night's, with the cold trough becoming entrenched over the UK, leading to more misery and central heating possibly being required for many into the 2nd week of June.

 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted (edited)

 Sherry Could you tell spring from late winter, say March/April from February? I couldn't.

Edited by SunnyG
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Please go away northern blocking.

image.thumb.png.81d9ad761e35f265bdc1db846cdf7229.png

I'm hoping GFS is on the money but I know the chances are minimal.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Truly awful clusters this morning, T192 onwards:

IMG_8996.thumb.png.db9b7cae151d0c6b3193396506cb7e0d.pngIMG_8997.thumb.png.e0a9146cb7fc10343007f4b78d095d95.png

No sign of a more promising pattern change it all in that lot, with a predominance of -NAO and Atlantic Ridge regimes persisting.  Been nearly a full 12 months of perpetual autumn now!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

 Mike Poole

All i wanted for the euros was sunshine and the TV in the garden.

The latest clusters are absolutely no suprise to me it was obvious over a week ago the direction of travel for June.

We  can't shake off the horrific blocking structures to the NW.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

Small victories at this point for me. Looks like we may get 2 weekends at least usable and dry weather (this weekend and next) at least down south anyway. I know it won't be hot or even into the 20s probably but at least you can get outside, even if you have to put 2 layers on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Estonia
  • Weather Preferences: despite my username, I like warm weather :)
  • Location: Estonia

Today models have decided on a chillier solution for the end of next week, having the trough stay over Scandinavia for longer. This is no surprise after nearly 3 weeks of 25+C weather and I don't mind a cooler spell per se, but I hope the pattern doesn't get stuck like this...after seeing what happened last year in July/Aug (mostly in the UK, but Estonia had a below average July as well). Then again, many good summers here had a colder June and early summer has more changeable weather in general.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

 danm I'll have a virtual bet EC proves correct.

It's backed by the mean and ec 46.

image.thumb.png.fd87fda0ba529efdd8e2ca86bc58b382.png

Yesterday's 12z mean

image.thumb.png.7131155b6991478ffbd9d333ee1ea629.png

this mornings.

 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal Disparity: Cold and Snowy Winters, Sunny and Warm Summers.
  • Location: London

 IcySpicy You've had a better late Spring period than most of the UK gets for their entirety of summer. 😆

It's...positively "Baltic" as they say. 😎 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

 danm I wouldn't put my money on gfs unfortunately.  Whilst it's come up trumps as of late ,this past week or so it's been wobbling all over the place ,so Ecm has been far more consistent as of late, with its output, so I expect it ,the gfs to come in line with ecm, maybe not to take Ecm op as literal for the extreme it's showing now ,but I think the general pattern will be right. Both models   as early as Wednesday / Thursday  of next week, show a big difference in the synoptics. ......

h850t850eu-88.webp

h850t850eu-87.webp

ecmt850-63.webp

ecmt850-62.webp

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm thundery summers, sunshine (and lots of it)
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted (edited)

 danm not only us in the uncertainty, the whole Northern Hemisphere is uncertain..

As much as the GFS is brilliant and what we want, the ECM will probably be closer to the mark. 

The difference is a shortwave that comes out of Greenland around day 4/5, I believe. 

@ANYWEATHER The GFS has been rather consistent on a drier warmer pattern though. They are both consistent on their pattern.

Edited by CoventryWeather
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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

OMG please tell me this isn't going to happen in flaming June 😳😳😳

03CD330B-C2B7-465A-82D5-067B02A3AC31.png

8FA5B963-A1BA-403F-9FC3-291D702F0A2F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

I'm sure it's been mentioned on here that the ECM has been pretty poor of late however. 

I've been monitoring the GFS closely and with each run it has produced a steadily improving picture from midweek onwards. Has been pretty much rock solid in this. Intriguing stuff. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

 northwestsnow it probably is more likely to be correct than the GFS. But a flip in a mean overnight just shows how much uncertainty there is. As ever, what may end up happening is a combination of the two into something more benign. We’ve had a number of horror charts recently that haven’t materialised. It could next weekend as the EC shows but at this stage I wouldn’t bank on that. I’m also not banking on the GFS being right. They can’t even agree beyond about Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: Estonia
  • Weather Preferences: despite my username, I like warm weather :)
  • Location: Estonia

 In Absence of True Seasons  I know 😆 That's why it's so hard to give up those conditions exactly at the start of meteorological summer though. It would be a shame for all of the summer months to be worse than this good spell in May. Which is exactly what happened in 2016. Other years with warm Mays generally had good Julys though. I do hope the UK gets some better weather soon too.

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

Thing is, it'd be boring if we were a weather forum based in, say, the Algarve. We'd come on here to discuss the models and it'd be 'yep, sunny again' (on the whole!). At least the UK gives us something to talk about! 

As I've said, I'm not a massive fan of extreme heat or even hot weather. I do however get the wish for a warmer outlook with the Euros on the way - I'd be the one insisting on sitting in the shade though with a Pinacolada 😂

As @danm has said, no consistency past Thursday really but I am pinning my hopes on the GFS, like many of us. Even if a watered down version / mixture with ECM, as long as it's dry just get outside and try and enjoy it. It's only weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

With the clusters having come out for ECM, and as Mike has posted pretty terrible, just shows how fast things can change. Last night's clusters looked mixed. I do stand by my previous statement that we need the Greenland heights to clear off.

In terms of the ensemble mean and spread, it's interesting how the GFS is different not just with its OP but with the entire ensemble spread.

The GFS mean goes notably cool around 4th, but then has a relatively fast recovery with temperatures back to average or even above average by the end of next weekend. Meanwhile, the ECM goes cool at a similar time but has a much slower recovery, temperatures only just about reaching average by the 13th, with an increase in scatter.

Unfortunately this morning's EC OP was only a little worse than its ensemble mean (close enough), whereas the GFS OP became a warm outlier around 11th, which limits how much trust we can put into it.

gfs-bradford-gb-54n-2w.thumb.png.2401d7b77b2f58ea4d376682f56631df.pngecmwf-bradford-gb-5375n.thumb.png.b466b433550d9641099d2646c463257c.png

Hopefully we see some improvements in the output soon.

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