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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted

 Met4Cast seems to fit in with severe-weather's early winter analysis from last week. I can't imagine anyone would look forward to another wet and mild winter, hopefully it turns out drier than average.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Positive signs later next week after a brief northerly. High pressure seemingly building in on the ECM, GFS and UKMO.

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

EC clusters below.

Days 3-4

A clear northerly influence at days 3 and 4, as expected. Likely cool or very cool and unsettled. Rainfall totals unlikely to be too high though since Pm air holds much less moisture than Tm air.

image.thumb.png.152f01896343d0b59a332d8108c46ca4.png

Days 5-7

Cluster 1 (27%) keeps the northerly airflow at day 5 but after that the Azores high builds in from the SW, pushing the cold air away eastwards. High pressure bringing the wind direction around to westerly or SW by day 7, but not totally settled by that point.

Cluster 2 (24%) also starts to build the high, but it takes a little longer, and so by day 7 high pressure is still to the west, so although somewhat drier the wind is still from the N or NW, so still on the cool side.

Cluster 3 (20%) is stronger with the build of heights - northerly airflow at day 5 and 6, but already settled by day 7 with a strong high over the UK. Warm.

Cluster 4 (16%) moves the northerly on eastwards only very slowly - by day 7 still wet in the east with the high out to the west - still quite north-westerly and cool.

Cluster 5 (14%) has a very deep low near the UK at day 5 - wet, windy and very cool by day. Similar to Cluster 4, the northerly moves eastwards much more slowly, and we're still under a trough at day 7.

The OP was in Cluster 1.

image.thumb.png.ff9bcdf97448bd26fc0fd9c235fb3b25.png

Days 8-10

Cluster 1 (25%) has high pressure generally over the UK from days 8-10. Generally easterly or south-easterly winds, aided by a low to the SE. Warm, possibly very warm. Cluster 2 (25%) is broadly similar. Cluster 3 (20%) is also broadly similar.

With a slightly different path, Cluster 4 (18%) has the high pressure further south and east. Should still be warm with a south-westerly but probably not to the same degree as the first three clusters.

Cluster 5 (12%) doesn't develop much in the way of high pressure, with a transient ridge into the south at day 8 and then no real signal thereafter. Mixed.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

image.thumb.png.653bddb59866ecbe06d094e4976916cb.png 

Days 11-15

All very uncertain by this stage, but here goes.

Cluster 1 (35%) continues the dry easterly theme and is quite warm initially at day 11 and day 13. By day 15 the orientation of the high sends the wind direction likely north of east, so a cooler high by that point. Still dry.

Cluster 2 (27%) has high pressure to the east at day 11, with low pressure to the west. A brief plume-type setup possible - warm or very warm and unstable. At day 13, more of a standard N/S split develops - still fairly warm and dry in the south but cooler and more unsettled further north with a trough around Iceland. By day 15 another high ridges in from the west, but likely on the cool side as it is still centred quite a long way to the NW of the UK.

Cluster 3 (24%) has a strong build of high pressure to the east and north of the UK. Quite a substantial 500mb ridge for the time of year - warm, perhaps even very warm under a southerly.

Cluster 4 (14%) is dry initially but not especially warm with a bridge of heights from Greenland through the UK and on into Scandinavia. The pattern then turns messy, though with heights to our west and east I would suspect another northerly interlude possible, so a cool outcome.

image.thumb.png.5920dde5c572d989de27c1255e149328.png

Summary

A model consensus is now very definitive on the northerly - starting at day 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday) there will be a distinctly cool feel with a significant drop in temperatures by both day and night. Perhaps enough for widespread ground frost in rural northern England and Scotland, and on highest peaks in Scotland rain could turn to snow. I might even go so far as to say nights quite cold, rather than merely cool.

Beyond that, the northerly airflow looks to last through day 5 and 6. By day 7 though, a 70-30 consensus for a pattern change to something drier and potentially warmer again, with high pressure building back in. Still not completely certain though.

By day 8-10, the consensus is a lot clearer, with almost 90% of the ensemble going for something warm and dry, with some very warm options in there. Albeit this is further away, so perhaps still an element of caution on the basis of timescale.

In the extended, admittedly very uncertain, the signal is generally for any quieter interlude to continue, with more high pressure than low pressure around. A pretty weak signal though and I generally say not worth worrying about anything beyond day 10 - indicative only.

In short, a definite cool first half of next week. Beyond that temperatures look to recover and things turn drier, but the extent of any warmup is very uncertain, and will depend on the position of the high.

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

By day 8-10, the consensus is a lot clearer, with almost 90% of the ensemble going for something warm and dry, with some very warm options in there.

A swing back to a warmer looking September today, but like you say, all remains uncertain!  Your 16C prediction back in the game perhaps?

Edited by Don
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 CoventryWeather As soon as you get a high anomaly anywhere near to our south, forget cold winter weather, I'm afraid. Don't forget they're anomalies compared to the norm. The norm is relatively high pressure to our south, especially over Spain - if anomaly charts are showing even higher pressure than normal over there and France we have no chance of wintry conditions. The best we could get out of those projections would be some old school frost and fog but even that seems a thing of the past

Also, look at that arctic view that Met4Cast posted too - no blocking to be seen anywhere

Having said that, it's miles off and it might be hiding monthly variances but those frames from ECM look incredibly boring

Back to the here and now, if this morning's runs are anything to go by it looks like the pattern repeating from many a September/first half of autumn in recent history will be back this time next week. NW/SE split

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

 LRD

Agreed.

The large teapot = Iberian / euro heights and a strong PV.

Updated EC seasonal is dreadful but sadly for me there is an element of resignation to our fate nowadays.

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted

ECM at 144 hours so a not very robust high ridging in 144 hrs. North and west under constant risk of frontal rain. 

image.thumb.png.2bec0a38179c755eecaeeb24628f6a4e.png
 

GFS similar, but high further north and makes more of the trough to the east, perhaps unsettled in the east

 

image.thumb.png.2b4a1d098b1b51c760f6fe086c25304b.png

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Morning runs continuing to show high pressure building back in from late Thursday, sweeping away the brief northerly. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
Posted (edited)

0z ECM, GFS, and UKMO operational runs at 108 hours indicating good potential for breaking a 109 year old cold weather record. Not very often do we see cold temperature records under threat.

The lowest daily maximum temperature for September for the UK is 4.4 degrees from 29th September, 1915, at Braemar, Aberdeenshire.

IMG_3381.thumb.jpeg.14285487b5d0e99f86f1c3e98ef2ec6f.jpeg

This looks well within range for the same part of Scotland on Wednesday, 11th.

IMG_3384.thumb.png.3c5abde1b49cc15e28f460e73e654927.png IMG_3382.thumb.gif.d23669fd71ece390a41efe999a5b407e.gif IMG_3383.thumb.png.4fd6933c422979c04738a0d6a5aad724.png IMG_3385.thumb.png.b4fe6f8f8307d706407cdc0764b0ac99.png

Single figure maxima for much of upland Britain and Ireland, and as shown on the ECM anomaly, a particularly cold September day for all. 

Edited by Cambrian
  • Like 7
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 Cambrian yes I've been monitoring next week for a wee while.

Some low maxima for Northern areas next week..

Potentially some frosts around too.

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

 northwestsnow Yeah, I'm not that worried about winter weather anymore for 2 reasons:

1) as you say, resignation that winter in our neck of the woods has fundamentally changed and what is the point of engaging in a 'game' where the dice are so loaded against you and 2) my kids are too old to worry about snow now. One thing I always wanted was a freezing, snowy December like 09, 10 (like my two eldest experienced when they were under 10) or 1981 for my youngest to experience. She was born in 2011. That ship has sailed now

Onto GFS ensemble spaghetti and it really will be a significantly cool 2 or 3 days or so IMBY, 850s-wise. Will still be pleasant in the sun. Then we see the inevitable warm up

image.thumb.png.e530e589972fda3e3f19aa8daa6c4ee7.png

Incidentally, this 'wet' spell for the south - I haven't seen a drop of rain! Been far more restricted (to the far south and the SW) then it initially looked like being

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Updated EC seasonal is dreadful but sadly for me there is an element of resignation to our fate nowadays.

I've seen worse charts, but the updated EC seasonal is far from great!

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
44 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

0z ECM, GFS, and UKMO operational runs at 108 hours indicating good potential for breaking a 109 year old cold weather record. Not very often do we see cold temperature records under threat.

Would be typical to break the 109 year cold weather record and September still ends up above average overall!!

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yes I've been monitoring next week for a wee while.

Next week could be our winter?! 🙄

 

16 minutes ago, LRD said:

2) my kids are too old to worry about snow now.

I'll never be too old to worry about snow lol! 😉

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted
10 minutes ago, Don said:
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

 

I've seen worse charts, but the updated EC seasonal is far from great!

That’s probably great news for those looking for a colder winter then!!  😁

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-29°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

0z ECM, GFS, and UKMO operational runs at 108 hours indicating good potential for breaking a 109 year old cold weather record. Not very often do we see cold temperature records under threat.

The lowest daily maximum temperature for September for the UK is 4.4 degrees from 29th September, 1915, at Braemar, Aberdeenshire. This looks well within range for the same part of Scotland on Wednesday, 11th.

IMG_3381.thumb.jpeg.14285487b5d0e99f86f1c3e98ef2ec6f.jpegIMG_3384.thumb.png.3c5abde1b49cc15e28f460e73e654927.png

Chilly yes, record breaking highly unlikely. The Met forecast for Braemar below for mid next week is currently at 9C, still a ways off from the record.

image.thumb.png.51b7c1a00c673e0442a35368bacbf3d0.png

Lowest daily max around mid September appears to be around 7C via the RoostWeather website.

image.thumb.png.a948ea5a0a2269df0c7cf0b8d9cfc03c.png

The 4C would almost certainly be way up in the Cairngorms where no one lives rather than an official low-lying station which counts to the records. The forecast for the summit at 1245m below:

image.thumb.png.796372451152cb2bb601b458b2ffe546.png

Edited by Metwatch
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
Posted

 Metwatch

Thank you. I imagine that you will ultimately be proved right regarding the record at Braemar, though I think it could well be a bit closer than that, which is why I posted it for discussion of the possibility. The table of records that I posted, with the 4.4 degrees, is from the Met Office. 

For the 11th, Wednesday, the 6z GFS op puts the freezing level at about 1000 metres, and the temperature at Inverness (at 127 metres) at 6.7 degrees at 1pm, though interestingly a bit higher later in the day, 7.4 degrees at 7pm. 

IMG_3387.thumb.gif.0a78b9f465d5690ca7116fea0d58ab4f.gif IMG_3388.thumb.png.5af811154898346c3b88f583177a2664.png

Braemar, at 339 metres, could well be a couple of degrees lower than Inverness in the early afternoon. The temperatures will be rising from an overnight 1-2 degrees widely in that area, so I guess how close it gets is going to depend amongst other things on the lapse rates in the lower layers, and the local conditions, under cloud cover and rain. In any case, a notably chilly day for mid September on the cards for many, especially in upland areas.

IMG_3389.thumb.gif.19cfd538decb0e9ff513134927218a6c.gif IMG_3390.thumb.gif.3c88adde39264e3b63a6a8c9784d2e4f.gif IMG_3391.thumb.gif.5f058631353ca052aa663634bf85edd0.gif

I must admit I find these kinds of “one-off” days very interesting indeed!

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Talking of one-off days, it's 21.6C at Bealach Na Ba right now! 👍

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-29°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

I must admit I find these kinds of “one-off” days very interesting indeed!

Certainly don't disagree there, anything not close to the norm is interesting to monitor!

Also wouldn't say no to a crisp clear northerly at this point in autumn given it will bring a higher chance of dry, bright conditions compared to the disgusting cut-off low many central and southern areas have had to endure this week  😂 only brought one sunny day here which was yesterday.

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

much prefer the 2nd half of the GFS, looks great but it could be foggy early on

Anything that brings sun or a prolonged break in the rainfall I will welcome a lot, warm or cool. The latest GFS did look good though.

Edited by Metwatch
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

 Metwatch won't be for my location though, early teens, breezy and constant train of showers through the Cheshire Gap, all depends on location

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Lancing
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing
Posted

image.thumb.png.aa738685a70cf93fd6014bf173ac0ca4.png

UKMO looking nice at day 7, GFS also looking good way out in FI.

image.thumb.png.8ad5734064757fdda980bebf4f5934bb.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

 Mcconnor8 Got a holiday booked in N Wales that week. Looks like it may be a good call weather wise. Repeatedly showing settled and warm.

Edited by Cheshire Freeze
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

 AWD I’ve seen it and it’s legitimately grim. 

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