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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

GFS and UKMO looking good from Friday. 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

A nice ECM going into next weekend:

image.thumb.png.d47ebf718109fa3e20744e0f8adb91ee.pngimage.thumb.png.ea0b635a9f088ffa0a73876ddbe91e3d.png

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted

 Mcconnor8 Could we see some warm days and cool nights with that high pressure?

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

I’ve seen it and it’s legitimately grim.

A few topplers in November/December and then mild for rest of winter?......

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

 danm really hoping so , we are going to Duxford for the Battle of Britain air show on Saturday so hopefully the weather plays ball. The Gem also is looking promising over next weekend but it's a fine line regarding Saturday with that push from the Azores.

 

 

259272D7-5AA7-41C1-B70F-F4A420E463DE.png

Edited by Mr Marky Marky
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

EC clusters below.

Days 3-4

Unsettled and cool or very cool with northerly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.

image.thumb.png.a6c6ac7517e11be2dfacf6c617adac47.png

Days 5-7

Cluster 1 (59%) has northerly winds still at day 5 (Thursday) but then high pressure builds in from the west and eventually over the UK. Warm and dry, perhaps very warm in the south-east close to a heat pumping low to the SE. Cluster 2 (41%) is similar, but with south-westerlies at day 7 so not quite as warm as Cluster 1. Still dry though.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

image.thumb.png.d47aa801c8f93ea97a1f8580bacf3cb0.png

Days 8-10

Cluster 1 (45%) keeps high pressure in control from day 8-10, and increasingly turning the wind direction more towards southerly, so becoming warmer day by day. Cluster 2 (25%) also keeps high pressure in control up to day 10, with mainly easterly winds. Warm and dry, perhaps very warm.

Cluster 3 (25%) is weaker with the build of high pressure, with weak  ridging at day 8, no signal at day 9, and then weak ridging again. Fairly non-descript but on the drier side overall. Cluster 4 (4%) has no build of high pressure and instead keeps low pressure in control from the west. Very low support though.

The OP was in Cluster 1.

image.thumb.png.9b874d2cfa397fa13d99512900fa5137.png

Days 11-15

Lots of uncertainty here - tropical developments may also pick up by this stage.

Cluster 1 (39%) still has high pressure in control at day 11 with warm south-westerlies. Some low pressure around at day 13 then no real signal at day 15, but likely on the warmer side with plenty of heights to our south.

Cluster 2 (31%) has high pressure centred to the east at day 11, likely bringing a plume from the south, which could be very warm. High pressure remains in control beyond that up to day 15, continuing warm or very warm.

Cluster 3 (29%) has high pressure generally to the north of the UK at day 11 and day 13 resulting in a warm easterly flow. By day 15, hints that the high becomes centred more to the NW of the UK, but we're still fairly close to the middle of it, so likely still warm given the strong 500mb heights, but with some cooler nights perhaps.

image.thumb.png.adb15dfcc417c224d4406ae4609836de.png

Summary

Model uncertainty looks to have dropped a bit in this update (though I may curse my words tomorrow!). Starting on Monday (day 3) and running through to day 5 we have a clear signal for a cool northerly, perhaps very cool. Beyond that, things look tot urn increasingly warm and dry, backed by the ensemble at day 7 and then again at days 8-10.

The extended range is very uncertain as always, but based on what is showing this quieter period looks to continue with all three extended range clusters continuing to show high pressure in control, and potentially warm or very warm as well.

  • Like 4
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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

I've not done this one for a while, so here are the latest sea surface temperatures from the ECM.

At day 0, warmer than average SSTs persist to the SE of the UK close to the near continent, and also away to our north. The Atlantic immediately to our west is around average to somewhat cooler than average. Much of the western north Atlantic is very warm though, particularly off the coast of North America. Widely 2-3C above average. This has fewer implications for the UK, though.

image.thumb.png.5e18b514435c0a417e279a2cfae7248e.png

By day 15, the ECM shifts the focus of the Atlantic warmth to near the Azores. This clearly has implication for any south-westerlies, which will likely be much warmer than we would typically expect given SSTs 2-3C above normal in that area. SSTs immediate to the west of the UK are still near average, and all other patterns are largely the same.

image.thumb.png.e8ed6230ffe0698b0377181a95fbbc03.png

Always interesting to monitor these - particularly as we go further into the autumn and winter.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

 near northampton Nothing by any means taken as gospel.  However, given our recent winters, you cannot blame one for not being overly optimistic for next season!  That EC seasonal could well be incorrect, but I would rather it looked better!

Edited by Don
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

 Daniel*

So you just choose to ignore the massive warmth heading towards the Arctic circle then? Of course if we go cool then warmer air will head north but the depth of warmth is extraordinary. I'm looking at the charts for our part of the northern hemisphere and they look more like summer charts with such high thicknesses and a massive area of high pressure no doubt enhanced by the warmer air. There's even hints this very warm air is going to win out and potentially hit Svalbard and it be no surprises considering the SSTS up there but that should never ever happen in September but here we are. 

Of course it's looking a noteworthy chill for the UK and this is for me is true Autumn when you see polar maritime air hitting the UK. Hopefully the high can topple in at the right time to allow a widespread cold night for at least one night(night time minimums will be kept up by the wind and cloud cover in places for most nights next week). 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Langford, Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Langford, Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
Posted

 near northampton the EC seasonal is different…

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Sydenham/Crystal Palace London
  • Location: Sydenham/Crystal Palace London
Posted

 danm
I'm currently deciding which set of thermals I'm bring to Centerparcs Thetford. We arrive there tomorrow and leave Friday.
It was over 30c this time last year, and whilst I wasn't expecting that for this year,18c/ 20c and dry would have been nice.
My grandchildren, and their parents won't mind the temps, but I will, as it's painful for my body.
I was so hoping for 48 hour push back on temps that we had earlier this year, but alas, it wasn't to be.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

 Daniel* And yourself making it sound remarkable that we are getting a cooler shot in a warming world whilst we see extreme warmth heading northwards, of course we will still get cool areas, that's how weather works.

It is fair to say I suppose it's a notable chilly blast for the time of year but the huge area of of high pressure with such warmth and high thicknesses is more impressive for me and proof of how fast climate change is happening.

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

 Daniel* i was just merely observing how you seemed to ignored the even more remarkable positive anomalies heading northwards as a result of us turning cooler. I wouldn't be surprised if we see record temperatures for September being broken at northern latitudes next week, I highly doubt any cold records will be broken. 

You just came across as surprised too see colder anomalies heading for us in an ever warming world but the obvious signs of a warming world is being displayed right Infront of us on the model outputs with summer like high pressure systems and warmth at higher latitudes in a month where things should be cooling down.

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

i was just merely observing how you seemed to ignored the even more remarkable positive anomalies heading northwards as a result of us turning cooler

Why is it relevant in a UK weather forum? And well that’s evident I would say though higher latitude continental areas are much more prone to extreme anomalies, hot and cold. It is not so simple to compare like for like. And it doesn’t diminish what’s happening closer to home. 

IMG_5245.thumb.png.bc4b01c247c31cdd8caa5f3fb20198ba.png

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Also this seems more insightful day 4-5 and 5-6 the forecast low temperatures in Europe becomes more exceptional and rare, and is a stronger deviation than the Russian unseasonable September warmth.

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  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted

 danm so if the incoming colder spell gives us frost and the warmer spell after that potentially reaches mid-20s, that's an Indian summer by definition isn't it?

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

 tadpole I went in June the forecast was terrible but didnt see a single drop of rain today it was 25c there nearby at RAF Lakenheath

  • Like 1
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