Hurricane Beryl

[Fiona Robertson]

 WYorksWeather No idea, mission was abandoned not long after that reading, but the latest image I have of the eye scares me. It had looked a tad raggedy, but now it's perfection itself. Look at how clean the eyewall looks. At the time of the last NHC update, they had the 161.1mph measurement, but still went with a Cat 4. The flight path of that bit looked not quite as straight as usual and I'm wondering if that's where they hit the turbulence and so they weren't gonna go with a Cat 5 on that basis.

Grenada is the lowest island in the chain you see here at the SE, currently embedded in the "red" area.

Edited July 1 by Fiona Robertson
To add location details.

[Fiona Robertson]

There's currently a NOAA non-tasked Gulfstream headed towards Beryl on a training mission.. Whether they'll do any measurements or not isn't noted, but Beryl has moved on quite a bit from her position at the time of the last mission (Mission 06). I'm getting all of my info and images from here, I use it every year for hurricane season.

Live Atlantic Recon Mapped in Cesium - Tropical Atlantic

TROPICALATLANTIC.COM

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View the latest hurricane reconnaissance in the North Atlantic basin mapped in Cesium.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Fiona Robertson I think next NHC update is at 10pm (BST), so we should know one way or the other pretty soon.

[WeatherArc]

Unfortunately there are no hurricane hunter flights for another few hours so we wont know what the windspeeds are right now but just going off radar and satellite imagery Beryl most certainly looks like a Category 5. Barring another EWRC she will continue to strengthen/maintain intensity as a probable Cat 5 for another 12 or so hours.

Pronounced stadium effect with rotating mesovorticies inside her eye show how intense she is.

 

Edited July 1 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Videos and pictures from a hurricane hunter flight earlier today.

[WYorksWeather]

NHC holding it at upper level Category 4 for the moment.

Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

I imagine they're probably not going to make the call on Category 5 without another recon flight. We'll see what happens.

Beyond that, it looks like a landfall in Yucatan is possible, but Beryl is currently predicted to survive that and continue as a hurricane. Of course if that happens, it could then potentially re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico.

Crazy, crazy stuff.

[Fiona Robertson]

Found this, it's terrifying. 

 

[matty40s]

I do NOT think this comment about decades is correct, we may well see this again soon.

 

[Guest]

 Fiona Robertson Grenada, a direct hit on its islands.

[Lauren]

She's a beautiful storm which is a bit of a juxtaposition really.

[Rush2019]

 Fiona Robertson wow amazing stuff, so disruptive and damaging.  felt selfish for moaning about a a bit of rain and the cold temp for July.

[WeatherArc]

Hurricane hunter flight has made its first pass into Beryls eye, 173mph flight level winds recorded, she may still be a cat 5 but clear that she's past peak strength of an hour 30 ago, she seems to of encountered some dryer air in her northern quadrant over last 30 mins and has lost some symmetry, furthermore she is slowly moving closer to an upper-level trough that will increase wind shear, this will start to cause big problems for her. Difficult to say how long she has left before effects of shear but im certain by the time she starts to make landfall  or passes close by Jamaica she will be weaker, intensity guidance does suggest she could still be a Cat 2-3 though.

Data recorded from first pass through eyewalls and into eye.

Both HAFS A and B models want her to restrengthen and reach a peak strength of 166mph and pressure of 938mb, not sure if this could happen given the dry air problems but still a possibility. 

Its hard to state the pristine perfect and incredibly rare conditions for intense hurricanes shes had over the last 48 hours. Beryl has managed to travel over the warmest ocean heat content anomalies in the entire world and straight through record breaking sea surface temperatures. To her north, both the Azores high and a tropical upper tropospheric trough have efficiently vented her outflow away from the core and created more divergence for stronger convection. Lastly, the lack of any form of wind shear has kept her from being torn apart, this combination has created a dangerous environment for her to flourish into a high-end major hurricane. Beryl is also sitting between two pockets of Saharan dust, its just incredible how rare this is, i cant imagine how low the probabilities of how much everything had to go right/wrong for her development.

A good thread below talking about the problems Beryl will face soon as she begins to move into an environment with much more shear.

Edit-Beryl has seemingly fought off the dry air intrusion and seems to be strengthening again, massive burst of convection with cold VHT/CDO going up to around -80.

This could be her last chance to get a Cat 5 rating, furthermore at the moment the chances of an EWRC looks relatively low.

Hurricane hunters second pass confirms winds strengthened to 158mph and pressure down to 934.1mb, this would be within Cat 5 rating, they are likely waiting on the third pass to wait for data before making any upgrades.

Heres the data from the second pass,

Dropsonde from SW eyewall, Eye and NW eyewall.

Models are beginning to suggest that Beryl will end up in the Gulf of Mexico, very dependent on whether the area of high-pressure over southern US shifts east or stays put, if she does end up in the Gulf, the most likely location for landfall would be the eastern coast of Mexico or Texas, difficult to know how strong she will be.

 

 

Edited July 2 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Edit-Beryl is a Cat 5!  Winds of 155kts supports sustained ground level winds of around 161mph, what an incredible storm and the earliest Cat 5 on record, thankfully shes far away from land and will weaken before her next landfall in Jamaica.

 

Edited July 2 by WeatherArc

[The PIT]

Seems to be taking a more northerly path of the cone 

Major Hurricane Beryl LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth

ZOOM.EARTH

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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Major Hurricane Beryl 2024 in the Caribbean Sea. Current wind speed 165mph.

 

[matty40s]

 

[AderynCoch]

Wow, have I just awoken from a coma and found that it's September?

[matty40s]

 

 AderynCoch

Well it was 12.7c here late afternoon yesterday and today its.. 13.4c, so maybe October.!!

[matty40s]

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Looks like the slight weakening we saw on the northern flank due to dry air has been repaired, huge convection in that sector now. I've kept the forecast track visible and for the last 24-36 hrs Beryl has been consistently running to the north of the forecast track, not by much, but over a distance it could make all the difference. The track over the Yucatan peninsula has been creeping northwards by the hour and if this keeps up she might miss the peninsula altogether and sneak straight into the Gulf of Mexico. Her eye, once again, is picture perfect.

[Fiona Robertson]

Um... this reading just came in from Hurricane Hunter... 189.9 mph... 

[FetchCB]

188mph at 2000m equates to 175mph at surface I believe...... Staggering 

 

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Being nothing more than an enthusiastic, if incompetent amateur I'm wondering if the models might be a tad off because of the unprecedented high water temps in the area. I started watching what was to become Beryl just off the African coast (yes, I'm sad, I've been watching the tropics since the beginning of May because of ocean temps). So far we've had the idea that Beryl "might" become a tropical storm, Beryl "might" become a hurricane, Beryl "might" max out at Cat 3 at most and all were thought to be outside chances. I'm not talking about the usual tentativeness of scientific language. It seems she's been underestimated at every step. Even last night when Cat 5 strength winds had been detected she was still considered a Cat 4. When I finally fell asleep winds of 165mph were reported, yet she was still a Cat 4.

The other thing I've been wondering about is the effect of the excess water temps at depth. We normally assume that a hurricane moving over an area churns up the waters, bringing colder waters up from the depths, making conditions more unfavourable for any following systems. I recently saw a report that we're not going to see this happen because the waters at depth are so warm.I suppose my question is "are the lower water temps at depth assumed and built into the models or are actual measurements taken and plugged into the models?"

[matty40s]

https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1808071124166602908

 

[Fiona Robertson]

 matty40s Going on the current forecast path and taking into account the sizeof the eye, the eye wall will rake along the southern coast of Jamaica. As it is, she's a tad north of the path.

[al78]

 Rush2019  You shouldn't feel selfish. I don't subscribe to this notion that no-one should complain about anything as long as someone else is suffering more and is often a devious deflection tactic. By that logic, the only person that has any right to complain is the person who has it worst in every possible way.