Hurricane Beryl

[al78]

 Fiona Robertson It is looking at the moment like Jamaica might experience hurricane force winds on the southern half of the island but the peak winds will stay offshore. Not guarenteed by any means, but at least wind shear is forecast to increase ahead of the storm which will knock it down a couple of categories.

[Fiona Robertson]

Bit of a beast. 

[Fiona Robertson]

 al78 My concern is the consistent pattern of being slightly more north than forecast and that trend is continuing. Can she get far enough north that she slips through what I call the Yucatan gap? It's a bit like the Watford Gap but with less traffic and more pineapples. There was one model, a total outlier I hope, which manages to slam her into the Louisiana coast after a journey northwards in the gulf. I remember the outlier for Hurricane Sandy, it was the UKMO, which predicted Sandy would turn left at the lights and slam into NYC. And then there's Katrina, supposed to chunter up the east coast of the US. She also took a sharp left, strolled across Florida, weakening all the way and then entered the gulf. How much improvement have the models seen in "steering predictions" since those two? 

[karyo]

In a way, I hope Beryl avoids the Yucatan  and heads for the US instead. Mexico has already been hit by two tropical storms so early in the season!

If Beryl behaves like the ECM is showing, it would mean a double Mexico landfall. Mexico deserves a break but of course nature does not recognise borders.

[Fiona Robertson]

 karyo I know what you mean, but it's going to hit somewhere. With a bit of luck it'll weaken significantly and then make landfall in an unpopulated area. It's going to be going over the deeper waters around the Cayman Trench after it passes Jamaica so fingers crossed.

[WeatherArc]

Beryl is impressively managing to fight off increasing shear as she moves westward, however signs of the effects are clear on her western edge with cloud tops warming/falling, she is approaching a trough where deep layer wind shear will increase to 40+ knots, this will substantially weaken her as the shear tears apart the delicate mechanics at work.

However, the rate of weakening for her is unclear, given how strong of a storm she is it may take a while to lose steam, Jamaica should still be preparing for a major hurricane landfall.

What a start to the 2024 season though, the first hurricane is a Cat 5. Hopefully not a harbinger of things to come.

The good news is that invest 96L, which was looking to develop and hit areas of the Windward islands struck by Beryl, has really fallen apart. Guidance has her barely reaching tropical storm strength let alone Cat 1.  Unlike Beryl, 96L has been caught by a large amount of Saharan dust and dry air, completely hindering any development. If Beryl had formed just 2 days later or moved slower she would of been caught by this dust. Its just incredible meteorologically speaking how she formed in exactly the right place at the right time, moist airmass, little shear, record breaking sea temps and a large Azores high above positioned perfectly to ventilate outflow away from her, i cant begin to imagine how low the probabilities must of been.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Met office deep dive, mainly all about Hurricane Beryl 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

In terms of size this must be the smallest hurricane Iv ever seen......!

[WeatherArc]

Photos from hurricane hunters flight inside the eye of a Category 5, eerily beautiful.

 

[The PIT]

I'm using this Interesting it's holding onto cat 5 quite well. Saying that it's a cat 4 doh

Major Hurricane Beryl LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth

ZOOM.EARTH

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Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Major Hurricane Beryl 2024 in the Caribbean Sea. Current wind speed 155mph. Max 165mph.

 

Edited July 2 by The PIT

[The PIT]

 ANYWEATHER Smallest hurricane I can find is Hurricane Daisy 1962 which was only 20 miles wide.

[matty40s]

Strange things going on..

 

[WeatherArc]

I am genuinely baffled by this thing, never seen anything like it ever. Beryl is just refusing to die. Jamacia needs to be on high alert for a possible high end Cat 4 landfall, 30 knots of shear usually equals rapid weakening, Beryl is actively fighting to stay alive, firing new VHT to rotate convection upshear. 

One of the only factors favouring Beryl's continued strength is the massive ocean heat content, if this is keeping Beryl alive and at Cat 5 strength im quite concerned about what it could mean later on in the season when climatologically shear decreases.

 

[FetchCB]

The definitive definition of "staring down the barrel of a gun"

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Looks like the Cayman islands are in line for a direct hit from Beryl

[AderynCoch]

Working fine. For now.

[emmett garland]

 AderynCoch Its windier here now in Dublin Lol

seriously though its a nasty hurricane

[AderynCoch]

Yeah, looks like the core of the hurricane will stay south of Kingston. The SW coast is in trouble though.

[matty40s]

 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

From Above

Latest projected course

Edited July 4 by Dorsetbred

[matty40s]

Oh, dear, watch out Texas....

 

[Fiona Robertson]

My money is on the East Texas/Louisiana border. Beryl has been consistently slightly north of the predicted track.

[Lauren]

Looks like she's going for a direct hit on Cozumel.

[karyo]

Beryl has re-strengthened to category 3 just before landfall.

She will weaken to a tropical storm over the Yucatan peninsula but should strengthen again once she emerges in the GOM. The overnight models have shifted Beryl's track a bit further north and east so a landfall in Texas is looking more likely. I have to say, if that happens it is hats off to the ICON which has been persistent with a more easterly track and a Texas landfall. The other models up to yesterday were showing a Mexico landfall with the UKMO having the more southerly track.

[matty40s]