Autumn 2024 Moans, ramps and banter

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 HarvSlugger Are you depressed if it too?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Don Are you feeling depressed too? I just want a crisp frost and morning sun now!

[Don]

 *Stormforce~beka* Yes, this anticyclonic gloom is a real drag!  Crisp sun and frosty mornings would be perfect right now!  Also, with winter currently looking to be yet another mild bore fest doesn't help either!

Edited November 5, 2024 by Don

[dubmuffin]

 I think it might be my fault - I bought a new weather station and ever since the we haven't had any weather - sorry! It even has this mysterious thing called Solar/UV which peaked at about 123W/m2 at 13.20 with UV measurement of 1. I'm not sure it has ever seen proper sun so nothing to compare this with

[danm]

35 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Are you feeling depressed too? I just want a crisp frost and morning sun now!

I'd feel more down if it was wet. My expectations at this time of year are low, so having it bone dry for this long is a big plus. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

drizzle today again!

[IslaArklayblend]

 Mapantz That's wonderful chart, Mapantz.  Many thanks.

[Ball Lightning]

 dubmuffin UV 1 is not much different to typical midnight values. Not surprising, especially if you had the fog too.

[Met4Cast]

55 minutes ago, Don said:

Do you currently see any positives at all for winter from a cold interest perspective?  I'm struggling to remember such a poor outlook in the run up to winter during the last 20 odd years,

Worth noting that last winter held a LOT of promise with everything pointing the "right way" at this time last year and.. well we all know how that ended up going overall, so I wouldn't be too disheartened at the current longer-term prognosis, un-foreseen shorter range variables can & do completely shift the pattern to something that wasn't expected. 

More broadly though and to highlight a positive, the wQBO + high solar activity has been show to increase the likelihood of SSW's, the idea being that highly charged particles from the sun can promote warming in the upper stratosphere leading to top down warmings, but putting all our eggs into the SSW basket often ends up with a lot of broken eggs, so it's a bit of a wildcard so to speak. 

In terms of other drivers though we're not going into this winter in a particularly good position. 

[IslaArklayblend]

 dubmuffin Have faith, dubsy!

I had max of 140W/sqM today.

In the summer (remember that?) you will probably get over 1200W/sqM just like we all did.

This is a chart for mine for period from June till now.

[IslaArklayblend]

 *Stormforce~beka* Bekbug, get your solar light on!

I have one, too.

Beware of some GPs and BigPharma, some of 'em no nussink, yes?

X 

 

Edited November 5, 2024 by IslaArklayblend

[HarvSlugger]

 *Stormforce~beka* yes! I would genuinely rather normal Atlantic weather than this crap

 Met4Cast we need an SSW to fall in the right place for us when was the last time an SSW worked in our favor for cold and snow?

[Mapantz]

My UV sensor records in tenths. Managed 0.6 today, but it didn't even get off of mark in the 3 days prior.

[chris888]

 SLAMMER  it's not even been dry been drizzling today where i am and here was me thinking we might get some "drier air " this week not sure whats happened to that  

[richie3846]

 HarvSlugger 2018, the beast from the east. That was caused by a SSW if I remember correctly. 

[chris888]

 hailcore  there are no uv rays at night lol 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ugly wet day in my location

[HarvSlugger]

 richie3846 it's funny because I got 0 snow from the beast from the east and I was in a warning for 30cm, the snow just kept disappearing. some sort of brecon beacon effect blocking me

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 HarvSlugger not even 1 March storm Emma?

[HarvSlugger]

 I remember Atlantic 252 nope, nothing

[HarvSlugger]

50 cm on hills! From storm Emma I think and I got nothing! Even though I was well in the warning area

Recent years London and Cornwall(even on the beaches) has had way more snow than me in pembrokeshire 180m high

Edited November 5, 2024 by HarvSlugger

[Ball Lightning]

 HarvSlugger Western areas tend to do badly with snowfall from Beast from the East type scenarios, especially areas leeward of any high ground. These snow showers are convective cells fueled by 'warmth' from the North Sea. Once they get about 100 miles inland they tend to just die out, and even then, like all showers they are hit and miss. Although I am surprised you didn't get any stratiform snowfall from Storm Emma's fronts, even for a short period. For your parts, the best scenario for huge dumps of snow would be a polar low that miraculously navigated the Irish sea, which to my knowledge, has never happened before.

[Ball Lightning]

 I remember Atlantic 252 That would actually be a very wintry chart if it were mid-January. The northern flank of the low would have a big area of heavy snowfall with moisture being dragged up from the Med. But in November, it will just be cold rain.

Edited November 5, 2024 by hailcore

[Metwatch]

13 minutes ago, HarvSlugger said:

Recent years London and Cornwall(even on the beaches) has had way more snow than me in pembrokeshire 180m high

Did you get anything 10th December 2017 or 24th January 2021? It's possible you may have been a tad too far south / west, but if you travelled maybe 15-20 miles east of your location there'd have been a lot of snow both events!

Edited November 5, 2024 by Metwatch

[HarvSlugger]

 hailcore I remember watching the radar for storm Emma and the snow just couldn't get into pembrokeshire at all,it just kept fizzling out, I was so gutted, especially when I'm in a warning for 50cm! I get sleet alot+ everything just misses me,or another thing is if it does snow it's so light that it does absolutely nothing let me just add something again, sometimes we can get a cm or 2 or snow before it melts in 5 minutes

Edited November 5, 2024 by HarvSlugger