Autumn 2024 Moans, ramps and banter

[MoonlightShadow]

 raz.org.rain Amen to that, my interest in weather is strictly a result of my outdoors activities - dry is what matters, be it warm or cold or indeed very cold.

I like snow, above 400m asl on hills where it can accumulate and offer a great playground but unless it's a 2010, zero interest down here, just mucky slush and commuting misery.

 

[Wold Topper]

 raz.org.rain hints...., insightful

[Weatherman_93]

 Alderc 2.0 Oh no what happened to massive snow dump we were getting. It was bang on 

[Alderc 2.0]

6 minutes ago, Weatherman_93 said:

Oh no what happened to massive snow dump we were getting. It was bang on 

It’ll be cold next and definitely some snow but models seem to have pushed low pressures about 100-200miles further north this morning. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Back to default here, blanket of grey and heavy drizzle. Was meant to be dry today

[richie3846]

 Alderc 2.0 bit gutted about this drizzle, I had planned on mowing up my leaves. It'll have to wait till the next dry day now, it's so much easier when the leaves are crisp.

[Mapantz]

It's a shame that Ecowitt don't have their laser distance sensor available yet. It would be perfect for those who'll see snow next week.

[dryfie]

I see that the NE Iceland super foehn is on again today midday.   The 21C is at 9m amsl, the 19C at 2m, and the 9C around 1000m.   Winds are generally from the SW with means up to 50kph.   Will be somewhat less balmy in a few days.   Courtesy WeatherObs.

 

Edited November 14 by dryfie

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Weatherman_93 10 days out

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Alderc 2.0 As of a a few days prior, this entire week was meant to be clear, and each weekday at least partly-mostly sunny. It's why I maintain that there's literally zero point in looking at the forecasts or models and placing much faith in them anything more than 24-48 hours out (at most).

[Weatherman_93]

 In Absence of True Seasons Ahh of course. Silly me.

[richie3846]

 In Absence of True Seasons clear skies for more than one day in a row, is a rare phenomenon in the UK. I don't mean that sarcastically either. When the symbol forecasting shows clear blue skies all week, it's probably incorrect. Even just knowing this seems to help me deal with my expectations when viewing a forecast. 

[Metwatch]

Another impressive thing to note is how little i've had to check the radar during the first half of this November, almost unheard of for this time of the year! A shame it has been counter-balanced with it being one of the dullest first halves too.

[Freeze]

Pure blue skies here, nice mellow autumn sunshine.

[SussexSnowman]

Blue skies and some cloud this PM. 12oc. What feels like a more seasonal day's of weather. 

[MoonlightShadow]

Decent day here, lunchtime dog walk was delightful. 

Can't wait for it to be replaced by cold rain and wind ..

[TonyH]

 Just 2.4mm in the last 16 days here, quite unusual for late Autumn (last time being Nov to Dec 2016 when a 15 day absolute drought).

Edited November 14 by TonyH

[cheese]

 TonyH Just 0.8mm here since 28th October. I gave the grass the last cut of the year yesterday and although the grass was damp, the ground wasn't sodden. 

Not at all looking forward to more unsettled weather returning. 

Edited November 14 by cheese

[knocker]

Gfs goes toasty next weekend as mid Atlantic trough developments promote the Azores HP and force the jet further north

I can just imagine the joy this will bring to the Mod. thread

[johncam]

Think we are talking max six days of colder weather and a few frosts , some especially on high ground may see some snow, nothing exceptional on latest model output . Northern Scotland coming off best in northerly flow.

[raz.org.rain]

 knocker yes please 

[Mapantz]

Just 45 minutes of sunshine today, and a max temp of 13.1°C.

It got down to 3.7°C about half an hour ago, but cloud has rolled in again, and temps started climbing.

[HarvSlugger]

UKV says it should be 8c for me

It's currently 1c!

I thought UKV was accurate, not even close!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 richie3846 Agree. Yeah it's not sarcastic / exaggeration. anything more than 2-3 consecutive days of clear skies occurs, what, a few times a year...max? 

We need proper 'goldilocks' set-ups, with all the pieces aligning just right, to manifest a prolonged (multiple days on-the-trot) spell of clear / sunny weather, especially if we are talking about outside of the May-Sept period. It only tends to happen it 'outlier' situations, i.e. June 2023, the September 2023 heatwave, or the January 2024 cold-snap (as recent-ish examples). 

Definitely agree about managing expectations re forecasts for clear / sunny weather. The combo of 2021, and now 2023-24 has resigned me - for my own sanity - to a state wherein I'm by-default expecting any forecasted clear / sunny weather to have some overcast periods (regardless of what the forecast shows). I'm no longer disappointed at this happening, nor frustrated at the inaccuracy of the forecast. I'm instead pleasantly surprised *if* and when those rare multi-day clear (or even mostly clear) spells land. It makes a lot more sense IMO to approach the situation with a mindset like this, as opposed to the perpetual self-flagellation of raging against the grey skies that are a near-constant in our isles. 

The last year has been the point at which I've effectively stopped using the weather apps for anything other than the occasional curiosity browse, and my weather-related frustrations have definitely abated a bit. Weather apps are a big part of the problem these days, IMO. I have friends who are not weather 'nerds', and wouldn't know their high pressure from their low pressure, but nevertheless treat the apps as basically gospel, and make plans and wear clothing accordingly  - only to then, repeatedly, get scuppered by the weather not aligning to what their app told them the day before (or even the day on), and they'll moan to me "Oh, why is it raining / cloudy, my weather.com app says it should be dry right now, only 5% change of rain!" etc. I advise them to do what I do, which is look out the window, make an educated judgment of what to expect, and proceed accordingly (which tbf, means always packing an umbrella / rain jacket regardless, as we live in Britain!) 

Edited November 15 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Andy Bown]

 In Absence of True Seasons  @richie3846 today is a perfect example. Look at what the Met Office says it’s like right now and to come today. Reality is 100% low cloud since dawn which experience tells me might not lift until 14.00! 
 

To be fair to the Apple app it shows cloud until midday.

Look up, not app!