Autumn 2024 Moans, ramps and banter

[cheeky_monkey]

 sundog this was my back garden Sept last year and the park round the corner...note the frost on the ground.

[LetItSnow]

I’m getting the hankering for autumn today. Probably spurred on by the heat. I have this terrible trait where I always seem to yearn for the season it isn’t. In winter I crave the light of summer but in summer I feel nostalgia for wintriness that inevitably will never arrive!!!

[Harry233]

Autumn is always an interesting season it always seems to be vastly different year to year. Very unusual to get a similar autumn two years in a row. My ideal autumn is to begin settled and still have a bit of warm sunshine at the start with some pleasantly cool nights and no humid or very warm heat before having a bit of a cooler, wetter spell and then having some misty cloudy weather before finishing on a very cold, settled, sunny wintry note. An ideal autumn for me would be something like 2007, 2013, 2018. 

Be interesting to see how it pans out after a poor summer so far but I usually feel if the summer is poor then September is usually very pleasant and in some of the better summers, September has been quite non descript or often dull and cool.

How I feel Autumn 2024 will pan out 

September: Generally settled with near average maxima and some cool nights but with a couple of more unsettled spells. I think it’ll start quite warm and sunny but not as hot or humid as the likes of 2021 or 2023. A maximum temperature of around 26.C/27.C on the 6th around the London area with most other areas away from the far north of Scotland reaching 23/24.C. Generally temperatures widely reaching 19/20.C and falling to a low of 7/8.C. This spell lasts until the 11th before it turns westerly and more unsettled from the 11th-19th. This spell brings a lot of rainfall to western Scotland and north west England and some very cool temperatures maxima struggling to reach 12.C on a few days but more settled and sunnier further east with temperatures near average however still with occasional showers or longer spells of rain here. From the 20th the weather begins to settle down again in most areas and temperatures rise above 20.C widely for the last time on the 23rd before a much colder northerly takes over on the 25th bringing some unseasonably cold but equally very bright and dry weather with multiple frosts in inland areas of Scotland. First frost on the 25th September with a low of -3.C at Dalwhinnie. Maxima during the last week of the month widely below 15.C away from the south east and below 10.C in northern Scotland but with virtually unbroken sunshine everywhere. Overall a very sunny month in most areas but wet in the west, temperatures generally slightly below average especially with minima.

October: More unsettled but nowhere near as wet as October 2023. The month starts quite cool and settled following on September but turns much milder and unsettled from the 3rd. This lasts until the 10th bringing moderate rainfall and generally very dull conditions across many areas. Temperatures generally around or slightly above average during this period with mild nights. High pressure takes over on the 11th bringing settled and dry weather until the 16th with temperatures rising to the high teens in most areas but with some notably chilly nights in the north. Turning unsettled again from the 18th but a foehn wind develops across Scotland on the 20th bring some unseasonable warmth and sunny weather to the highlands and eastern Scotland, warmest October temperature occurs in Aboyne with a high of 24.C. It remains unsettled until the 27th before turning cold and settled for the months end. A low of -6.C is recorded at Braemar on the 31st and it’s the coldest Halloween on record with maxima widely below 10.C. Overall a rather mild month with the north being very sunny while the south has slightly below average sunshine. Rainfall is generally close to average but a tendency for the south to be wet while eastern Scotland has a very dry month.

November: An unsettled start but then generally very settled and cold before turning much milder and quiet for the remainder of the month. The weather flips on its head completely on the 1st bringing a massive Atlantic low bringing very wet and windy weather to all of us until the 5th, very high rainfall totals with some areas recording 150mm during this period. Temperatures are generally near average during this period. The weather then turns more settled come the 7th bringing some sunshine and cool weather with some light snow across the north. A very cold north easterly develops  on the 12th and this brings an exceptional cold snap to all areas with temperatures record breaking low across some areas. Heavy snow develops across most areas away from the west coast. Widely 30cm of snow across Scotland with 10-15cm across the south. Most western areas avoid the snow completely and enjoy some very cold but very sunny weather. Temperatures reach -20.C across highland Scotland and many places have their coldest November temperatures on record by the 16th. Glasgow and Edinburgh both have maxima of -9.C and even London is below -2.C. This stays until the 21st and then the weather remains settled but turns much milder a gentle thaw takes place with no flooding and temperatures are back in the low teens for the months end. Overall a very dry and sunny month in the west but wet and dull in the east and very cold everywhere.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Here's how I think autumn 2024 will pan out, rather than how I want it to pan out. 

September

A month of two halves. Anticyclonic first half and very sunny with many areas with days of over 10 hours of unbroken sunshine. It will also be warm for the time of year but no heatwaves. A drastic change to something much more autumnal with it turning unsettled everywhere, lasting from the 17th to the 20th, though remaining warm. More changeable from the 21st onwards with temps close to the seasonal average.

October

A quiet start to the month before turning very warm after the first week with temps reaching the mid 20s in the SE. This is to be shortlived and will very soon turn much cooler and unsettled from the 10th onwards. Things quieten down on the 20th as high pressure begins to take over leading to chilly days in the 10-13 Celsius range, but very sunny for most areas. At this time of the year, this means cold and foggy nights. The night of the 22nd/23rd gives us our first frost of the season. Remaining cool but much more unsettled towards the end of the month with Halloween being a very windy day.

November

A mild and unsettled month overall. This month continues with the unsettled pattern and there will be our first named storm of the season during the first week with another named storm later on in the month. Despite it being quite a mild and unsettled month, it does turn much cooler and more settled from the 25th to the end. 

 

Summary

September will have the somewhat unusual combination of having above average sunshine but also above average rainfall. The sunny first half along with a few nice days during the changeable second half will be enough to push up sunshine levels to above average. Likewise, the very unsettled spell midmonth along with the changeable second half will be enough to push up rainfall levels to above average. The month will be warmer than average overall.

October, despite the shortlived warm spell, will end up slightly cooler than average mainly thanks to chilly nights throughout much of the month. Rainfall will be somewhat above average with sunshine levels close to average.

November will end up being warmer than average and also wetter than average. Though the cold spell at the end does help to bring down the CET somewhat.

Edited July 21, 2024 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Turnedoutniceagain]

**raises an eyebrow**

Five weeks to go and Autumn's all around us if you know where to look:

Apples swelling, Lords & Ladies in the hedgerows, plums ripening, hazelnuts emerging, elderberries changing from green to purple, hawthorn/rowan colouring the hedges......can't wait !!

[Catbrainz]

This year I want any heat shenanigans to stay firmly and I mean FIRMLY in September. October and November is a time for crisper and cooler weather. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

21 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Though the cold spell at the end does help to bring down the CET somewhat.

Always good to see the standard, customary "cold spell at end of November" which always seems to exist in most peoples Autumn predictions.

[RJBingham]

Warm Autumn, followed my a very mild winter, that's my prediction.

[markyo]

 RJBingham Same as every year then......No Winter again.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 markyo I'm sick of no winter. I just want crunchy wunchy snow!!! All 7 inches of it ...

[LetItSnow]

22 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

All 7 inches of it ...

Ooo-err!

Same though. As I've said though, I think that this autumn will either bring an exceptional warm spell or cold spell. I feel like October could have a freak early snow or be 30C. Or maybe both!!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 LetItSnow I'll take 30 in September and a 20 in october. Don't want more than that lol

[Turnedoutniceagain]

 LetItSnow Give yourself a pat on the back for the first feeble attempt at the *hilarious* "inches of snow" joke of the season

 

**rolls eyes**

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Another beautiful Autumn day here!

[LetItSnow]

 Turnedoutniceagain Relax, wouldn’t want you to rupture a blood vessel from the hysteria. 

[IcySpicy]

I have mixed feelings about autumn. On one hand, early autumn is one of my favourite times of the year. Maybe because it was always an exciting time for me as a kid, because by mid August I would be bored of summer (here in Estonia we had 3 months of summer hols starting in June.) and would be looking forward to the start of the school year. To this day, I think of the start of September as a new beginning and a time to pick up new hobbies or improve my lifestyle  habits, more so than January 1st haha.

I also love the scenery in autumn, colourful foliage of course but also the way everything looks in the mellow sunshine, fog in the mornings/evenings. Warm Indian summer days are great after a cooler more autumnal spell.

Sadly this period only lasts a few weeks until the end of September, maybe into the second week of October at best. After that it's usually just very gloomy and cold and by the time the clocks get set back in late October it's just depressingly dark and the long wait to see the sun again begins, as we don't get much clear weather between November-January and even when we do we only get like 6-7 hours of daylight.

We had a record breaking warm/mild September last year but then October and November were rather cold. I am hoping for more of a 2018 repeat, which had a warm start to September, then turned cooler at the end of the month, which was then set off by an amazingly mild and sunny week in mid October. This late Indian summer really made a difference in reducing the amount if grey overcast dross we get.

[sundog]

Have noticed plenty of red berries out already. Don't remember seeing so many in July.

[snowdog]

Blackberries are ripening round about here. I picked one thinking it would be very sour but it was actually quite pleasant 

[MP-R]

 sundog Not surprising given how autumnal the month has been.

[Dangerous55019]

Oh what another beautiful morning with pockets of mist just lurking in the valley below.

This cheers my cold, dark, miserable heart up no end.

The change to the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness is now well underway.

#chasingfog 

[Azazel]

It’ll be mild, grey and probably wet.

[Summer8906]

 RJBingham As long as the warm is accompanied by more settled weather a warm autumn would be OK. A warm, wet autumn on the other hand...

I'd hope with El Nino past us, we're spared yet another notably mild winter.12 out of the last 13 months have been pretty dreary and a dreary winter coming up (because mild almost certainly equals dull, damp and dark, except Feb perhaps) would be just about the last straw!

Edited August 1, 2024 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 MoonlightShadow That would be simply extraordinary as (if it applies to all three months) we could end up with 16 of the 17 months from July 2023-November 2024 wetter than normal. We'd then be in uncharted territory.

Meanwhile I suspect Southern Europe gets dangerously dry weather under the same synoptics. Just hope these AGW Frankenstein conditions aren't the new normal, God help Europe (as a whole) if so!

[Summer8906]

Perhaps with the date as it is (August being the first month of Autumn in northwestern Europe lol) it's a good time to think seriously about what the rest of the year will offer, and whether it will offer an end to the endless unsettled.

I'm not really an expert but I guess the high SSTs might influence things? Or will the generally cool summer result in cooling of the seas in northwest Europe mitigating things?

The high SSTs would presumably cause any wet and stormy spells to potentially be particularly wet and stormy but will they result in unsettled conditions being near-continuous or is there scope for some anticyclonic interludes fighting back at times?

Would be good to hear some expert opinions on autumn as I suspect many of us are pinning a lot of hopes on early/mild autumn  (Sep and much of Oct) to be settled as that will then likely be our last chance to enjoy good weather until 2025.

My own gut feeling is surely the unsettled weather can't last all year (can it?)  If autumn, and December are entirely unsettled then we could be looking at 17 wetter than normal months out of 18.

So my entirely non-expert opinion is based somewhat on climatology and I will suggest that following a rather changeable first month of Autumn (August) providing a marginally cooler, marginally wetter and marginally cloudier month than the 91-20 average, Sep will be drier, sunnier and marginally warmer than normal as we finally get a prolonged anticyclonic interlude to provide a break in the unsettled weather, giving 2024's second decent month, following June.

I'm guessing (hoping?) that we surely won't get a sixth wet October on the trot. Consequently I'm hopecasting that October will provide a decent anticyclonic interlude for around two weeks at some point in the month (most likely early/mid), but there will also be two weeks of wet and stormy weather (most likely late). Consequently it's very average overal.

Nov I'll go with full on wet and stormy, and Dec a slight improvement on last year, maybe wet and stormy for two weeks and average conditions/fog/occasional frost/anticyclonic gloom the other two.

All stormy spells to be particularly stormy due to high SSTs, but not continuing without a break, as I simply can't believe the unsettled weather can continue for the rest of the year (can it?)

If the unsettled weather does continue all year, it will seem worryingly like we've shifted to a new normal of very wet and dull weather (if mild) in northwest Europe and semi-permanent droughts in the south. I think we're all praying for a change soon!

Would be good to hear more expert opinions though!

Edited August 1, 2024 by Summer8906

[MoonlightShadow]

 Summer8906 We've been saying this for a few months now though, that this can't go on, that 'nature' will balance things out yet it carries on. I dearly hope it is the case mind.

Meantime, 1st of August and there is little to indicate the start of a dry period. Another month above average ppn wise?