Autumn 2024 Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

 MoonlightShadow A number of people are saying that El Nino has exacerbated things since around Nov/Dec last year, so that we had a "by chance" poor spell from July-Oct last year followed by a typical El Nino mild, dull and wet period. Perhaps if El Nino hadn't happened the unsettled spell would have finished at some point during the winter, limiting it to a few months?

I'm hoping that indeed is the case!

Edited August 1, 2024 by Summer8906

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn Equinox next month 

[cheeky_monkey]

autumn only 2 weeks away here 

[IcySpicy]

 cheeky_monkey  Where I live it's not so continental as in Edmonton but here summer to autumn is the transition where we experience the least  seasonal lag for some reason. Many places experience their hottest weather in mid to late August whereas here it's already a challenge to have the warmth last until the end of the month. Winter to spring on the other hand....

[cheeky_monkey]

 IcySpicy Autumn here is essentially Aug 15th - Oct 1st 

[IcySpicy]

 cheeky_monkey  Here I'd say it's August 20th - Oct 20th. It varies slightly year to year and all kinds of outliers happen but usually after Aug 20th it gets much harder to reach a temperature of 25C or above (with days below 20C being more frequent too) and by Oct 20th usually all the foliage is gone and around that time we usually get our first dusting of snow. November usually isn't full on freezing winter yet but the weather is the same as on a mild day in January, so to me it's pretty much the same as winter.

Edited August 1, 2024 by IcySpicy

[Turnedoutniceagain]

16c today - summer's over. 

[SollyOlly]

 Turnedoutniceagain hope so!

We'll get at least one more hot spell, I'm sure. But as one who is heat averse, I hope not much more than that! 

It would be nice to have a proper, seasonal autumn for a change. The past few years have just felt like extended summer... 

[Seasonal Trim]

 

[midlandsun]

Urgh, Autumn and Winter approaching

[RJBingham]

 Seasonal Trim Analog forecasting not my cup of tea!

[IcySpicy]

Winter and cold fans are going to scream at me for this (then again, I'm talking about Estonia and the setup I want might bring cooler weather to the UK) but now, after a lack of true heat in high summer, I kind of want to see 30C in early September. We have reached 30C in sept once in 1992, so it's not climatologically impossible.

Ideally I'd want a late season heat dome to form around the 25th of August, 28-31C every day for week of the 25th aug to 1st Sept (and maybe a few days more until the 3rd or so) which is followed by a week or so of sunny days of 24-27C. After we've had our last fix of dry and summery weather, the middle third of September can be cooler and more unsettled, with temperatures around 14-16C. This is then followed by an Indian summer period starting around the 20th of Sept, with temps around 18-23C until the end of the month. Ideally the first of October is still very mild, with temperatures around 16-18C. After that it can be cooler and rainier for the rest of October, although I'd like to avoid single digit highs as long as possible. In November it can snow for all I care, because by then the possibility of warm weather is none.

Is this realistic? No, but one can dream . (although we've had similar temperatures occur around the dates mentioned, just not all in the same year.) Also, September does have a track record of being settled and offering a warmer spell after a wet summer. Though realistically that warm spell is going to be like 18-22C.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

In general, when does the re-freeze start again??

[jonboy]

 Turnedoutniceagain mid September roughly. 

[Summer8906]

On 04/08/2024 at 10:26, SollyOlly said:

It would be nice to have a proper, seasonal autumn for a change. The past few years have just felt like extended summer... 

Not so sure, the overriding theme of the past few autumns (certainly Oct and Nov) has been very wet and windy.

Our last fine Oct was in 2018.

After a pretty terrible year for weather I'm hoping for a benign autumn: if we look at recent years maybe a blend of Sep/Oct 2018 and Nov 2017.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Had a big house spider run over my pillow last night. Strange though as it looked like a female… they usually stay in their webs.

Have a feeling she was disturbed by a male as I felt another one run over my legs an hour or so later.  I kicked it off so no idea where that one went!

Edited August 6, 2024 by Cheshire Freeze

[Don]

49 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Had a big house spider run over my pillow last night. Strange though as it looked like a female… they usually stay in their webs.

Hopefully she didn't crawl into your hair and lay eggs?!! 

[baddie]

 Summer8906 A blend of September 2015 and October/November 2016 would be good too. Notable for a break from the Atlantic, as Sep 2015 and Oct 2016 were quite Easterly and Nov 2016 was rather Northerly

Edited August 6, 2024 by baddie

[Don]

 baddie As long as the following winter isn't similar!

[StretfordEnd1996]

Not really thought about Autumn yet even though metrologically it starts 3 and a half weeks away.

I've often not given it much thought until well towards the end of Summer in more recent times as Summer often does its best to hold on in September, as per last year and many previous Septembers in the 21st century. Typically is often "settled". 

So naturally it would be interesting to see a more cooler and wet September this time around, though I'd expect more settled weather again this time around.

With a La Nina ENSO condition potentially developing throughout the Autumn I feel this may induce further settled conditions as we go on but not fully sure. Feel like the Atlantic may take "a break" around Oct/Nov but we'll see. If this happens we could see a push of HP from the South bringing late Summery warmer conditions but alternatively these kind of heights could setup to the W/NW and bring cooler weather in. 

While I don't mind milder weather I just would love one or two of the Autumn months to come out closer to average temp wise. We've had it already so far in June and July, probably not so much August owing to a warm start but will be interesting to see if cooler months closer to average occur for the remainder of the year. The long continuous run of temps CETs of +2-4'C above average gets boring after a while. 

[Dangerous55019]

Evening everyone.

Well harvest 2024 is now well underway in these parts.  

Always a great harbinger of the coming season.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I love watching the harvest come home.

One of the things that always amazes me is the shift over about a week or two around the end of September and into October, how it suddenly goes from the harvest festival feeling, to Halloween knocking on the door!

[Summer8906]

 baddie Very true. That 2015-2018 period was notable for some nice autumn months though had a few stinkers. The stinkers were in the minority though and each of those four autumns had two relatively 'good' months and one fairly 'bad' one (the latter being Nov 2015, Sep 2016, Sep 2017, and Nov 2018).

It's of note that we had four fairly good Octobers on the trot. Of course we've had to pay for that with five poorish-to-very-poor ones since...

I'd like to see a return to a similar 4-year period of benign autumns.

Edited August 10, 2024 by Summer8906

[johncam]

 Turnedoutniceagain mid September usually

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Autumn is here. It's very foggy outside!!

[Summertime Sadness]

 *Stormforce~beka* I think you're a little early