August 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

17.2 to the 28th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 24.2mm 35.2% of the monthly average.

[Don]

I wonder if a couple of cooler nights will bring the final CET down to 17.1 or 17.0C?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.6C +0.1C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[snowray]

 Don Good chance, I noticed temps as low as 6c around the west Midlands last night.

[sawan]

 snowray We had 6.4C this morning, west of Coventry

[Durham Weather]

In Durham, second half of June, and mid-July to mid-August were reasonable. The rest was pretty Meh. A bland disappointing summer really.

[Summer Sun]

17.1 to the 29th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

17.11 to be precise, so 17.0 needs an average of 16.0 last two days (17.04). Today will probably be in 14-15 range from low mins. 16.9 is not totally off table but I believe 17.0 will be end point as 16.9 needs 14.5 average today-31st. 

[Summer Sun]

17.0 to the 30th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker 48.6 mm (to 29th and no additional rain was reported, will likely end at 48.7 to 49.0). 

[damianslaw]

Will we end on 17 degrees I wonder..

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 damianslaw I think @Roger J Smith is probably right.  A pretty mediocre summer overall for the UK.    

[Roger J Smith]

After 5th warmest winter and warmest spring, looks like summer 2024 will be around rank 110, fairly average for past century really. 

Seasonal ranks below 100 are relatively scarce in recent years, spring 2016 was rank 104 and winter 2017-18 118. Spring 2021 ranked 202nd and winter 2009-10 was 301st (65th coldest). Last year to rank colder than 120th for summer was 2015 at 161st (2012 was colder at 176th and 2007 was 170th. 

[The PIT]

Well Sunny Sheffield finished on

Average temp 16.6C +0.2C above average but counts as average

Average Max 21.1C +0.1C above average.

Average Min 12.0C +0.1C above average.

Rainfall 24.7mm 35.9% of the monthly average. 7th driest on record.

 

Summer ended as

Average temp 15.9C -0.1C below average but counts as average

Average Max 20.4C -0.2C below average

Average Min 11.3C -0.2C below average

Rainfall 130.4mm 62.2% of the monthly average.  16th driest on record.

So a dry average summer.

 

Edited September 1, 2024 by The PIT

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Confirmed as 17.0 which means Summer 2024 has an overall CET at 15.79 rounded off to 15.8.  The coolest summer season for the CET region since 2015 and probably the coolest summer for the UK since 2015 as well.    

Edited September 1, 2024 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Roger J Smith]

Nearly got to 16.9, looks like 16.96 or so. 

CET-EWP scoring (to be confirmed) can be seen in a table posted a few days ago, now on page ten of the thread. A lot of forecasts were close. 

 

[Don]

 Roger J Smith Yes, it was touch and go whether August would just miss out on a 17C CET.

[WYorksWeather]

 Roger J Smith Remarkably, despite such a cool summer, in the CET year-to-date series, the January to August period still ranks third overall.

2022 is still top at 11.78C, followed by 2020 at 11.53C, and 2024 is at 11.51C.

Clearly 2023 is notably absent from this list - it did a lot of heavy lifting in the last four months, and is ranked 13th at 11.25C to the end of August.

Will be interesting to see where 2024 ranks as we head towards the end of the year. By my calculations, if the rest of the year were bang on the 1961-1990 average, 2024 would finish around 11th, with a finish at around 10.60C. A more typical recent average of say 1C above average for the rest of the year would lead to an annual CET in 5th place with 10.93C.

Quite remarkable really that barring a notably cold finish to the year, there's a very strong chance of a top 10 finish. And that is despite a largely unremarkable summer.

[Don]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Quite remarkable really that barring a notably cold finish to the year, there's a very strong chance of a top 10 finish. And that is despite a largely unremarkable summer.

A similar year was 2011 which was also very warm, but the summer was rather poor!  The overall CET for that year was 10.8C, which at the time was the second warmest on record after 2006.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ended August at 48.8 mm ... will wait for any revisions on 5 Sep "table value" before editing any EWP scoring. 

Four at 50 mm were closest, as detailed in EWP scoring table (set for 48.8 mm) ... I have now posted table in current part of discussion and have added seasonal results in a second part of the table (below annual scoring report). 

 

Edited September 3, 2024 by Roger J Smith

[SqueakheartLW]

16 hours ago, Don said:

A similar year was 2011 which was also very warm, but the summer was rather poor!  The overall CET for that year was 10.8C, which at the time was the second warmest on record after 2006.

 Don

Arguably of those two years I'd rate 2006 more highly than 2011.

2006 had more or less the right weather and temperatures at the right points of the year.

• A chilly start to the year lasting really from the start of the year till mid April with some snow particularly late February and into March with only brief milder incursions, especially mid February and late March 2006
• Warm or hot and sunny with some thundery activity at times really from May 2006 to September 2006 with August really the only let down month. Hottest CET mean month on record in July 2006 as well as what was the warmest September on record at the time.
• October and November very much typical autumn wet and at times windy but on the mild side
• December 2006 along with August 2006 to me were the biggest disappointments of 2006. This December was mostly mild with the only colder weather anticyclonic gloom and fog in the days before Christmas.

2011 was one of those weird topsy turvy years with above average temperatures in the colder parts of the year and below in the warmer parts but more above overall giving 2011 an undeserved top 10 finish at the time.

• The only chilly month was really January 2011 which was coming off the back of the record breaking cold December 2010.
• February to April were mild with April a positively warm month.
• The May to September period was mostly average or cool until late September when the heatwave came.
• October to December generally above average and dull once the early October heat subsided

[J10]

Monthly

3 players got the CET correct this month. DR(S)NO, jonboy and mulzy

39 players (out of 62) were within 0.5c this month. Not sure if that is a record.

Other scores to follow tomorrow.

[Roger J Smith]

Updated EWP annual scoring (based on 48.8 mm)

 

As always, non-entrants are assessed consensus + 5 mm errors (for 48.8, it works out to 29.2 mm). 

Summer ranks are added to winter and spring ranks at end of forecaster data rows (will be adjusted if August scoring changes). Average error ranks in seasons include adjusted values for contests not entered. Ranked Summer points are listed below first scoring table.

For clarity, last 3 entries in row [in square brackets] are seasonal ranks for points and average errors. (e.g. methuselah ranked 4 in summer points and 6 in average error).

Table ranks are for annual points, August ranks are entered after forecasts (e.g. methuselah rank 10 in August).

Table does not specify number of months entered, summer ranks only use asterisks for 1 or 2 forecasts missed.

  * 2 of 3 entered, ** 1 of 3 entered ... average error in seasons and annual includes "con+5" values and is not a raw score.

 

Annual __ August ___________________ Aug _ year ___ Aug _ year to date ____ seasonal ranks

Rank (prev) _fcst (rank) _FORECASTER _____ score__annual ___ err __ avg err _ rank (prev) __winter_spring_summer

 

_01 _ 01 __55.0 (10) __methuselah _________ 8.65 __63.28 ____ 6.2 __ 28.59 mm _ 1 _ (9) ... ...[20, 28] [3. 5] [4, 6]

_02 _ 07 __56.0 (11) __Feb1991blizzard ____ 8.50 __57.78 ____ 7.2 __ 28.79 mm _ 4 _ (11) ... [9, 9] [13, 17] [12.t13]

_03 _ 05 __72.0 (28)__ Emmett Garland ____ 5.64 __56.94 ____23.2__ 30.54 mm _ 9 _ (10) ... [17,23] [24, 32] [2, 1]

_04 _ 02 __85.0 (40) __Jeff C ________________3.30 __56.42 ____36.2 __ 30.79 mm _10 _ (4) .... [2, 8] [16.t18.] [23,t36]

_05 _ 04 __77.0 (35) __DR(S)NO ____________ 4.25 __56.41 ____28.2 __ 29.92 mm _ 7 _ (5) ... [10,15] [8, 9] [20, 20]

_06 _ 03 __88.0 (46)__summer18 __________ 2.24 __54.89 ____39.2__ 28.77 mm _ 3 _ (2) ... [3, 2]  [5. 3] [50, t54]

_07 _ 06 __75.0 (32) __stewfox  ____________ 4.82 __54.57 ____26.2__ 28.99 mm _ 5 _ (3) ... [16, 4] [20. 33] [8, 10]

_08 _ 13 __60.0 (14) __Don _________________8.03 __53.56 ____11.2__ 30.14 mm _ 8_ (14) ... [8, 7] [30, 34] [9 ,t13]

_09 _ 20t__50.0 (01) __dancerwithwings ___10.00 __53.15 ____ 1.2 __ 35.34 mm_ 25_(46) ... [21, 36] [12, 12] [17, t26]

_10 _ 12 __68.0 (21) __ February1978 _______6.82 __52.80 ____19.2__ 32.57 mm_ 16_ (17) ... [11, 11] [21,t25] [21, 33]

(10.7) (10.8)_73.0 (29) __Consensus ________ 5.38 __51.74 ____ 24.2__ 34.53 mm_21.2_(18.8) .. [22.7, 30.5] [8.3,11.9] [20.5,30.3]

_11 _ 20t__56.5 (12) __Reef _________________8.35 __51.50 ____ 7.7__ 32.36 mm_ 15 _(18.) ... [22, 29] [27,t27] [6, 7] 

_12 _ 08 __85.0 (43) __ J 10 _________________3.00 __51.28 ____36.2__ 31.74 mm _13 _ (7) ... [4, 6] [26,t30] [28, t36]

_13 _ 17 __61.0 (17) __ godber 1 ____________7.62 __51.11 ____12.2__ 29.23 mm _ 6 _ (8.) .... [6, 5] [53, 48] [1, 4]

_14 _ 10 __85.0 (42) __Mr Maunder _________3.10 __49.99 ____36.2__ 36.14 mm_ 27_ (20) ... [23, 33] [2. 4] [52, t57]

_15 _ 09 __95.0 (52) __Frigid ________________0.94 __48.66 ____46.2__ 28.70 mm _ 2 _  (1) ... . [7, 1] [46. 50] [11, 11]

_16 _ 11 __87.9 (44) __Roger J Smith ________2.54 __48.61 ____39.1__ 31.86 mm _14 _ (6) .... [33, 29] [15,13] [14, 12]

_17 _ 16 __75.0 (34) __Mulzy _______________ 4.42^__47.92____26.2__ 35.26 mm_ 24_ (21) ... [32, t46] [12,14] [19, 17]

_18 _ 18 __76.5 (33) __Metwatch ____________4.44 __47.74 ____27.7__ 32.71 mm_ 19_ (16) ... ... [14, 13] [35. 40] [18, 18]

_19 _ 29 __50.0 (10) __weatherforducks ____ 9.70 __46.97 ____ 1.2 __ 33.57 mm _ 20 _ (27) ... [44, 38] [18,t21] [7, 9]

_20 _ 24 __67.0 (20)__snowray ______________7.00 __46.00 ____18.2 __34.47 mm _ 21 _ (23) ... ... [13, 12] [38, 44] [24, 32]

(20.7)(21.5)_81.0 (37.7)_1994-2023 average_ 3.73 __45.63 ____32.2__ 36.14 mm _ 27 _(24.5) ... [6.6,12.2] [47.5, 50.9] [21.2,30.9] 

_21 _ 33 __45.0 (05)__ Addicks Fan 81 ______ 9.40 __45.45 ____ 3.8 __ 34.72 mm _ 22 _ (35) ... [40, t26] [9, 11] [25, 40] 

_22 _ 23 __72.0 (27) __Stationary Front _____5.74 __45.19 ____23.2 __38.59 mm _ 45 _ (53) ... [47, 61] [4. 6] [31, 41]

_23 _ 14 __ --- --- (---) __Weather26 __________-- -- __44.91 ____(29.2)__ 32.66 mm _ 18 _(15) ... [5,16] [42, 24] [33, 19]*

_24 _ 25 __71.0 (25) __Let It Snow! __________6.18__44.77 ____22.2 __34.98 mm _ 23 _ (24) ... [30,t20] [29, 43] [t45, 23]

_25 _ 30 __61.0 (16) __Midlands Ice Age ____ 7.72 __44.73 ____12.2 __36.59 mm _ 28 _ (t47)... [37, 41] [14, 10] [27 ,t36] 

_26 _ 15__105.5 (54) __Polar Gael ___________0.54 __44.21 ____51.7__ 39.76 mm _t59 _(28) ... [25, 31] [19, 41] [36, 49]

(26.7)(22.3)_82.3 (39.1)_1991-2020 average__3.50__ 43.73 ____ 33.5 __ 37.16 mm_ 30.7 _(27.0).. [11.4, 14.9] [47.9, 51.0] [23.0, 32.8] 

_27 _ 32 __35.0 (19) __WYorksWeather______7.26 __43.49 ____13.2 __37.57 mm _t35 _ (55) ... .. [12, 17] [52, 57] [15, 15]

_28 _ 19__118.0 (56)_I remember Atlantic252_ 0.14 __43.30____69.2__ 39.77 mm_ 61 _ (19) ... [19, 18] [25. 37] [47, 62]

(28.1)(25.5)_75.6 (33.3) _1981-2010 average_4.65__ 42.98 ____26.8  __36.99 mm_29.9_(35.1) .. [17.6, 22.8] [45.0, 48.5] [26.1, 24.9] 

_29_  27 __ 77.0 (36) __davehsug ____________4.15 __42.12 ____ 28.2 __38.23 mm _ 43 _ (45) ... ... [34, 43] [17, 16] [35, 45]

(29.4)(25.9)_82.9 (39.3)__average of all data __3.43__41.64____33.5 __ 40.38 mm _ 65.5_(60.1) ... [25.9, 34.8] [52.7, 50.6] [12.3, 24.2]

_30 _ 22__136.0 (57)__ virtualsphere ________0.00 __40.85____ 87.2 __ 42.08 mm _ 74 _ (22) .... [24, 22] [7, 7] [58, 64]

_31 _ 31 __79.0 (37) __jonboy _______________3.87 __40.78 ____ 30.2 __39.88 mm_  63 _ (61) .... [18, t26] [37. 44] [44,t54]

_32 _ 34 __73.0 (29) __seaside60 ____________5.38 __40.76 ____24.2 __39.48 mm _ 54_ (64) ... [43, t54] [10, 9] [39, t51]

_33 _ 37 __45.0 (06) __Leo97t _______________ 9.30 __40.43 ____ 3.2 __41.32 mm _ 72 _ (74) ... [50, 67] [36, 47] [5, 8] 

_34 _ 26 __89.0 (48) __rwtwm _______________1.74 __40.12 ____40.2 __39.70 mm _t56_ (t47) ... [38, 52] [23,t25] [34, 42]  

_35 _ 28 __90.0 (49) __syed2878 ____________1.54 __39.12 ____41.2 __46.59 mm _ 85 _ (78) ... [72, 73] [1. 1] [43, 56]

_36 _ 38 __70.0 (23) __The PIT _______________6.46 __36.62 ____21.2 __44.46 mm _ 79_ (79) ... [27, t48] [34, 46] [t45, 60]

_37 _ 35 __90.0 (51) __daniel* _______________1,34 __35.39 ____41.2 __39.70 mm _t56 _ (41) ... [42, 60] [33, 39] [32, 34]

_38 _ 40 __71.0 (26) __summer blizzard _____5.78^__35.14____22.2 __43.16 mm _ 78_ (73) ... [28, 51] [49, 54] [26, 31]

_39 _ 39 __74.0 (31) __SteveB _______________5.10 __34.86 ____25.2 __39.31 mm_ 52 _(t59) ... [35, 58 ] [39, 8.] [40, 46]

_40 _ 43 __39.0 (13) __summer shower______8.20 __34.62 ____ 9.8 ___46.48 mm _ 84 _ (83) ... [53, 70] [45, 53] [10, 16] 

_41 _ 44 __44.0 (08) __sunny_vale ___________8.95 __33.92 ____ 4.8 __ 33.63 mm _ 17_(26) ... ( -- -- ) [22,t30] [13, 2]* 

_42 _ 41 __82.0 (39)__Weather Observer ____3.58 __32.86 ____33.2 __45.23 mm_ 82 _ (77) ... [57, 69] [31, 36] [29,t43]

_43 _ 45 __35.0 (18) __B87 _________________ 7.36 __31.83 ____13.2 __37.92 mm _ 41_ (57) ... ( --- --- )  [6, 2] [49, 61] 

_44 _ 36__112.0 (55)__chilly milly ___________0.34 __31.70 ____63.2 __42.59 mm _ 76 _ (49) ... [15, 14] [40, 29] [62. 63]

_45 _ 50 __45.0 (07)  __Neil N _______________9.20 __29.41 ____ 3.8 __ 47.08 mm _ 87 _ (84) ... [70, 72] [54. 56] [3, 3]

_46 _ 42 __97.6 (53) __KirkcaldyWeather ____ 0.74 __27.56 ____48.8 __39.57 mm _55 _ (33) ... [26, 19] [43, 42] [61, 59]*

_47 _ 49 __69.0 (22) __Bobd29 ______________6.64 __27.01 ____20.2 __44.96 mm _ 81 _ (80) ... [48, 65] [50, 52] [38 ,30]*

_48 _ 54 __50.0 (03) __catbrainz______________9.80 __26.11 ____ 1.2 __ 37.42 mm_ t33_ (t65) ... [t67, t54] [51, 20] [16, 24] 

_49 _ 47 __90.0 (50) __summer8906 _________1.44 __25.64 ____41.2 __42.71 mm_ 77 _ (71) ... [41, 37] [41, 49] [59, t51]

_50 _ 46 __ -- -- ( --- ) __noname_weather ____--- --- __ 24.41 ___ (29.2) __31.53 mm _12 _ (13) ... [ 1, 3 ] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_51 _ 57 __43.0 (09)__shillitocettwo _________ 8.80 __21.92 ____ 5.8 __ 52.61 mm _ 88 _ (85) ... [64, 71] [56. 59] [22, 25]

_52 _ 48 __ -- --  ( --- ) __Matt Stoke __________ --- --- __20.59 ___ (29.2) __37.24 mm_ 31 _ (31) ... [52, 34] [28, t18.] [ --- --- ]  

_53 _ 53 __85.0 (41) __Johnb88 _____________ 3.20 __20.54 ____36.2 __38.92 mm _ 48 _ (40) ... [49, t48] [ --- --- ] [38. 4]

_54 _ 51 __ ( --- ) ( -- ) __SLEETY ______________ --- ---__18.36 ____(29.2) __31.43 mm _11 _  (12) ... [45, 10] [47, 15] [ --- --- ]  

_55 _ 52 __ --- --- (---) __Pulpstar ______________ --- ---__17.49 ___(29.2) __38.46 mm _ 44_ (44) ... ( -- -- ) [32,t21] [60, t43]**

_56 _ 72 __50.0 (02)__Earthshine ____________ 9.90 __15.95 ____ 1.2 __ 41.98 mm _ 73 _ (76) ... [59, 62] [ --- --- ] [48, 47]

_57 _ 55 __ --- --- (---) __ScottD _______________ --- --- __13.42 ___ (29.2) __37.05 mm _ 31_ (30) ... [29, 25] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_58_ 66t__74.0 (30) __SummerLover2006 ___ 5.20 __13.30 ____25.2 ___37.68 mm _ 39 _ (39) ... [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [30, t26]*

_59 _ 56 __ --- --- (---) __moorlander _________ --- --- __13.13 ___ (29.2) __36.76 mm _ 30 _ (29) ... [31, 24] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_60 _ 58 __ --- --- ( --- ) __prolongedSnowLover_--- ---__12.30 ___(29.2) __36.12 mm _26 _ (25) ... [36,t20] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_61 _ 62 __88.0 (47) __Ricardo23 _____________1.88 __11.73 ____39.2 __40.21 mm _ 65 _ (52) ... [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [41. 48]

_62 _ 68 __82.0 (38) __Blue_Skies_do_I_see __ 3.68 __11.39 ____ 33.2 ___38.64 mm _ 46_ (t42) ... [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [42, 35]*

_63 _ 59 __ -- -- ( --- ) __Somerset girl _________ --- ---__ 11.20 ___(29.2) __41.09 mm _ 70 _ (69) ... [39, 59] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_64 _ 60 __ --- --- ( --- ) __TwisterGirl81 ________--- --- __11.16 ___(29.2) __41.16 mm _ 71 _ (70) ... ( --- --- ) [57, 35] [53, 50]

_65 _ 61 __ -- -- ( --- ) __baddie ________________ --- ---__10.58 ___ (29.2) __37.57 mm _ 38 _ (36) ... [71, 63] [ --- --- ] [51, t26]**

_66 _ 63 __ -- -- ( --- ) __topclass weather forecaster ----__ 9.84 ___ (29.2) __37.76 mm _t39 _ (t37) ... ( --- --- ) [58. 38] [55, 21]**

_67 _ 64 __ -- -- ( --- )  __Thomas Green ________ --- --- __ 9.61 ___ (29.2) __38.98 mm _49 _ (50) ... ( -- -- ) [44, 23] [ --- --- ]  

_68 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __Tillys __________________--- --- ___9.14 ___ (29.2) __37.43 mm _t33_ (34) ... [46, 28] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_69 _66t__ --- --- (---) __Bluehedgehog074 _____ --- --- __ 8.10 ___ (29.2) __39.46 mm _ 53 _ (56) ... ( -- -- ) [48,t27] [ --- --- ]  

_70 _ --- __36.6 (15) __cryoraptorA303 _________7.88 __ 7.88 ____12.2 __37.64 mm _t37 _ (---) ... [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [54 ,t26]** 

_71 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __jmp223 ________________--- --- __ 7.08 ___  (29.2) __38.20 mm _41  _ (t42) ... [51, 32] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_72 _ 70 __ --- --- (---) __Spiritof2006 ___________ --- ---__ 6.76 ____(29.2) __37.25 mm _32 _ (32) ...  [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [56,22]**

_73 _ --- __71.0 (24) __Cloud2 _________________ 6.28 __ 6.28 ____ 22.2 __ 38.75 mm _47 _ (---) ...  [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [57, t36]

_74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __Wold Topper __________ --- --- __ 6.18 ___ (29.2) __37.76 mm_t39 _ (t37) ... [54, 30] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_75 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __Shaunado _____________ --- --- __ 5.64 ____(29.2) __42.39 mm_ 75_ (72) .... [55, 64] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_76 _ 74 __ --- --- (---)__summer of 95 __________ --- --- __ 5.60 ___ (29.2) __39.16 mm_ 51 _ (53) .... [56, 40] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_77 _ 75 __ --- --- (---) __Rob79812010 _________ --- --- __ 5.56 ___ (29.2) __39.09 mm_ 50 _ (51) .... [58. 39] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_78 _ 76 __ --- --- (---) __Wade __________________ --- --- __ 4.96 ___ (29.2) __46.31 mm _ 83 _ (81) .... [73, 66] [55. 50] [ --- --- ]  

_79 _ 77 __ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain __________ --- --- __ 4.88 ___ (29.2) __39.71 mm _ 58_ (58.)  .... [60, 44] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_80 _ 78 __ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger _________ --- --- __ 4.34 ___ (29.2) __39.98 mm _  64_ (63) .... [61, t49] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_81 _ 79 __ --- --- (---) __Alexis J9 _______________ --- --- __ 3.99 ___ (29.2) __39.76 mm _t59_ (t59) .... [62, 45] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_82 _ 80  __ --- --- (---) __snowblind ____________ --- --- __ 3.67 ___ (29.2) __39.87 mm _ 62 _ (62) ... [63, t46] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_83 _ 81 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow _____--- --- __ 3.30 ___ (29.2) __40.54 mm _66 _ (t65) ... [65, 53] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_84 _ 82 __ --- --- (---) __Climate Man ___________ --- --- __ 2.90 ___ (29.2) __40.76 mm_ t68_ (t67) ... [66, t54] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_85 _ (---) __88.0 (45) __StretfordEnd1996 ______ 2.34 __ 2.34 ____39.2 __ 40.62 mm_ 67 _ (---) ... [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ] [63, t51]

_86 _ 83 __ --- --- (---) __gazse9 ( -- ) ____________ --- --- __ 2.28 ___ (29.2) __40.76 mm_ t68_ (t67) ... [t67, t54] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_87 _ 84 __ --- --- (---) __Norrance ______________ --- --- __ 2.04 ___ (29.2) __44.65 mm _ 80 _ (74) ... [69, 68] [ --- --- ] [ --- --- ]  

_88 _ 85 __ --- --- (---) __Met. ____________________--- --- __ 0.40 ___ (29.2) __46.93 mm _ 86_ (82) ... ( -- -- ) [59, 58] [64,t57]**

  __ ^ late one day penalty of 0.30 applied (3 forecasters)

====================================

 

SCORING for AUGUST (in order of forecasts) _____________ SUMMER RANKINGS _____________________

 

(forecasts in order) _____________________Rank _ Pts ___ ___rank/ Summer total points __ avg error mm (rank) (entries)

136.0 __ virtualsphere ( 12 ) ____________ 57 __ 0.00 __[]...__  01__Godber 1 ________ 23.65 ___ 15.10 (4) ___ ent 3

118.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 21 ) __ 56 __ 0.14 __[]...__ 02__Emmett Garland __23.58 ___ 13.97 (1) ___ ent 3

112.0__ chilly milly ( 20 ) ________________55 __ 0.34 __[]...__ 03__Neil N ____________22.30 ___ 14.63 (3) ___ ent 3

105.5 __ Polar Gael ( 27 ) _______________ 54 __ 0.54 __[]...__ 04__Methuselah _______22.14 ___ 17.43 (6) ___ ent 3

 97.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 41 ) _________53 __ 0.74 __[]...__ 05__Leo97t ___________21.12 ___ 18.30 (8) ___ ent 3

 95.0 __ Frigid ( 25 ) _____________________ 52 __ 0.94 __[]...__ 06__Reef _____________ 20.76 ___ 17.93 (7) ___ ent 3

 90.0 __ syed2878 ( 26 ) _________________ 49 __ 1.54 __[]...__ 07__weatherforducks _20.64 ___ 19.10 (9) ___ ent 3

 90.0 __ summer8906 ( 43 ) _____________ 50 __ 1.44 __[]...__ 08__stewfox __________ 19.49 ___ 20.77 (10)___ ent 3

 90.0 __ Daniel* ( 58 ) ____________________51 __ 1.34 __[]...__ 09__Don ______________18.96 ___ 23.10 (t13) _ ent 3

 89.0 __ rwtwm ( 44 ) ____________________ 48 __ 1.74 __[]...__ 10__SummerShower__18.86 ___ 23.63 (16) ___ ent 3

 88.0 __ StretfordEnd1996 ( 13 ) __________45 __ 2.34 __[]...__ 11__Frigid ____________ 18.38 ___ 22.77 (11) ___ ent 3

 88.0 __ Summer18 ( 22 ) _________________46 __ 2.24 __[]...__ 12__Feb91Blizzard ____18.36 ___ 23.10 (t13) ___ ent 3

 88.0 __ Ricardo23 (L1-2) _________________ 47 __ 1.84^_[]...__ 13__sunny_vale _______17.77 ___ 14.30 (2) ___ ent 2

 87.9 __ Roger J Smith ( 36 ) _______________44 __ 2.54 __[]...__ 14__Roger J Smith _____17.69 ___ 22.90 (12) ___ ent 3

 85.0 __ Jeff C ( 7 ) ________________________ 40 __ 3.35 __[]...__ 15__WYorksWeather __17.64 ___ 23.30 (15) ___ ent 3

 85.0 __ John88b ( 38 ) ____________________41 __ 3.25 __[]...__ 16__catbrainz ________ 17.44 ___ 26.43 (24) ___ ent 2

 85.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 45 ) ________________42 __ 3.15 __[]...__ 17__dancerwithwings__17.15 ___ 27.43 (t26)___ ent 3

 85.0 __ J10 ( 52 ) _________________________43 __ 3.05 __[]...__ 18__Metwatch_________16.86 ___ 24.47 (18) ___ ent 3

 82.9 __ average of all data _______________39.3 __3.43 __[]...__19__Mulzy_____________16.16 ___ 24.10 (17) ___ ent 3

 82.3 __ average for 1991-2020 __________39.1 __3.52 __[]...__20__DR(S)NO__________ 16.09 ___ 25.10 (20) ___ ent 3

 82.0 __ BlueSkies_do_I_see ( 28 ) _________ 38 __ 3.68 __[]...__ 21__February1978 ____ 15.73 ___ 29.43 (33) ___ ent 3

 82.0 __ Weather Observer ( 30 ) __________ 39 __ 3.58 __[]...__ 22__shillotocettwo ____ 15.48 ___ 27.37 (25) ___ ent 3

 81.0 __ average for 1994-2023 ___________37.7__3.73 __[]...__ 23__JeffC _____________ 15.39 ___ 30.77 (t36)___ ent 3

 79.0 __ jonboy ( 32 ) ______________________37 __ 3.87 __[]...__ 24__snowray __________ 15.29 ___ 29.10 (32) ___ ent 3

 77.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 11 ) ____________________35 __ 4.25 __[]...__ 25__Addicks Fan 1981 __ 15.25 ___ 31.30 (40) ___ ent 3

 77.0 __ davehsug ( 49 ) ___________________36 __ 4.15 __[]...__ 26__summer blizzard ___ 15.16 ___ 28.43 (31) ___ ent 3

 76.5 __ Metwatch ( 42 ) __________ (lev 34) _33 __ 4.44 __[]...__ 27__Midlands Ice Age ___ 14.20 ___ 30.77 (t36)___ ent 3

 75.6 __ average for 1981-2010 __________33.3 __ 4.51 __[]...__28__ J 10 _______________ 14.19 ___ 30.77 (t36)___ ent 3

.75.0 __ stewfox ( 6 ) ______________________32 __ 4.82 __[]...__ 29__Weather Observer _ 13.66 ___ 32.43 (t43)___ ent 3

 75.0 __ mulzy (L1-1) _____________________ 34 __ 4.42^_[]...__ 30__Summerlover2006__13.30 ___ 27.43 (t26)___ ent 2

 74.0 __ summerlover2006 ( 3 ) __________ 30 __ 5.20 __[]...__ 31__Stationary Front ____ 13.14 ___ 32.10 (41) ___ ent 3

 74.0 __ Steve B ( 17 ) _____________________31 __ 5.10 __[]...__ 32__daniel* _____________12.92 ___ 30.10 (34) ___ ent 3

 73.0 __ Consensus ______________________ 29 __ 5.38 __[]...__ 33__Weather26 _________ 12.61 ___ 24.57 (19) ___ ent 2

 73.0 __ seaside60 ( 51 ) __________________ 29 __ 5.38 __[]...__ 34__rwtwm _____________ 12.54 ___ 32.17 (42) ___ ent 3

 72.0 __ Stationary Front ( 8 ) _____________  27 __ 5.74 __[]...__ 35__davehsug __________ 12.36 ___ 33.10 (45) ___ ent 3

 72.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 50 ) ____________ 28 __ 5.64 __[]...__ 36__Polar Gael __________12.34 ___ 35.17 (49) ___ ent 3

 71.0 __ Cloud2 ( 53 ) _____________________ 24 __ 6.28 __[]...__ 37__John88b ____________12.25 ___ 17.42 (5) ___ ent 2

 71.0 __ Let It Snow ( 59 ) _________________ 25 __ 6.18 __[]...__ 38__Bob29d _____________12.14 ___ 27.93 (30) ___ ent 2

 71.0 __ summer blizzard (L1-3) __________ 26 __ 5.78^__[]...__ 39__seaside60 ___________12.10 ___ 36.43 (t51)___ ent 3

 70.0 __ The PIT ( 23 ) _____________________23 __ 6.46 __[]...__ 40__SteveB _______________11.80 ___ 33.77 (46) ___ ent 3

 69.0 __ bobd29 ( 2 ) _____________________  22 __ 6.64 __[]...__41__Ricardo23____________ 11.73 ___ 35.13 (48) ___ ent 3

 68.0 __ February1978 ( 57 ) ______________21 __ 6.82 __[]...__42__Blue_Skies_do_I_see __ 11.39 ___ 30.43 (35) ___ ent 2

 67.0 __ snowray ( 16 ) ___________________ 20 __ 7.00 __[]...__43__syed2878 ____________ 11.36 ___ 37.43 (56) ___ ent 3

 61.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 46 ) ___________ 16 __ 7.72 __[]...__ 44__jonboy _______________11.11 ___ 36.77 (t54)___ ent 3

 61.0 __ Godber 1 ( 55 ) ___________________17 __ 7.62 __[]...__t45__Let It Snow ___________ 10.74 ___ 26.27 (23) ___ ent 3

 60.0 __ Don ( 54 ) ________________________14 __ 8.03 __[]...__t45__The PIT _______________10.74 ___ 40.77 (60) ___ ent 3

 56.5 __ Reef ( 31 ) ________________________12 __ 8.35 __[]...__ 47__I Rem Atl 252 _________10.67 ___ 43.10 (62) ___ ent 3

 56.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 39 ) ___________ 11 __ 8.50 __[]...__ 48__Earthshine ____________10.50 ___ 34.10 (47) ___ ent 2

 55.0 __ Methuselah ( 10 ) ________________ 10 __ 8.65 __[]...__ 49__ B87 __________________10.32 ___ 41.97 (61) ___ ent 3

 50.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 1 ) _____________1 __ 10.00 __[]...__50__ summer18 __________ 10.03 ___ 36.77 (t54)___ ent 3

 50.0 __ Earthshine ( 5 ) ____________________2 __ 9.90 __[]...__ 51__ baddie ________________ 9.82 ___ 27.43 (t26)___ ent 1

 50.0 __ catbrainz ( 19 ) ____________________3 __ 9.80 __[]...__ 52__ Mr Maunder ___________ 9.68 ___ 38.10 (t57)___ ent 3

 50.0 __ weatherforducks ( 37 ) ____________ 4 __ 9.70 __[]...__ 53__ Twister Girl ____________8.56 ___ 36.30 (50) ___ ent 2

 45.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 ( 5.5 ) ___________ 5 __ 9.40 __[]...__ 54__ cryoraptorA303 ________7.88 ___ 27.43 (t26)___ ent 1

 45.0 __ Leo97t ( 14 ) ______________________ 6 __ 9.30 __[]...__ 55__ topclasswxforecaster____7.84 ___ 25.43 (21) ___ ent 1

 45.0 __ Neil N ( 24 ) _______________________ 7 __ 9.20 __[]...__ 56__ Spirit of 2006 ___________6.76 ___ 26.23 (22) ___ ent 1

 44.0 __ sunny_vale ( 9 ) ___________________ 8 __ 8.95 __[]...__ 57__ Cloud2 _________________ 6.28 ___ 30.77 (t36)___ ent 1

 43.0 __ Shillitocettwo ( 15 ) ________________9 __ 8.80 __[]...__ 58__ virtualsphere ___________5.40 ___ 59.10 (64) ___ ent 3

 39.0 __ SummerShower ( 18 ) ____________ 13 __ 8.20 __[]...__ 59__ summer8906 __________5.22 ___ 36.43 (t51)___ ent 2

 36.6 __ cryoraptorA303 ( 35 ) _____________15 __ 7.88 __[]...__ 60__ Pulpstar________________ 3.88 ___ 32.43 (t43)___ ent 1

 35.0 __ B87 ( 4 ) __________________________18 __ 7.36 __[]...__ 61__ Kirkcaldy Weather ______3.66 ___ 40.17 (59) ___ ent 2

 35.0 __ WYorksWeather ( 33 ) _____________19 __ 7.26 __[]...__ 62__ Chilly Milly _____________2.54 ___ 56.10 (63) ___ ent 3

________________________________________________________[]...__ 63__ Stretford End ___________2.34 ___ 36.43 (t51)___ ent 1

________________________________________________________[]...__ 64__ Met. ___________________ 0.40 ___ 38.10 (t57)___ ent 1

_________________________________________________ rank __ avgs and consensus ____________ pts ___ avg err (rank)

_______________________________________________________ ___(12.3) _ Average of all data _____ 18.14 ___ 26.60 (24.2)

_______________________________________________________ ___(26.1) _ 1981-2010 ____________ 15.13 ___ 27.30 (24.9)

_______________________________________________________ ___(23.0) _ 1991-2020 ____________ 15.39 ___ 29.37 (32.8)

_______________________________________________________ ___(21.2) _ 1994-2023 ____________ 15.68 ___ 28.40 (30.9)

_______________________________________________________ ___(20.5) _ Consensus _____________ 15.90 ___ 28.10 (30.3)

 

[J10]

Excel August 2024 CET.xlsx

PDF August 2024 Summary Overall.pdfAugust 2024 Summary.pdf

Seasonal
A few changes in the Seasonal comp with

Daniel rising to 1st from 2nd.
mulzy rising to 2nd from 4th.
LetItSnow! rising to 3rd from 7th.

Overall
A few changes in the Top 5.

Don rising to 1st from 2nd.
feb1991blizzard rising to 2nd from 4th.
Frigid rising to 3rd from 5th.
Metwatch rising to 4th from 11th.
syed2878 falling to 5th from 1st.