August 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

40 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

So it would be a bit different if the big heatwave were to happen in the closing days of the meteorological summer.

As long as the heatwave does not continue much beyond the opening days of September, when we see a major pattern change take place! 

[Summerlover2006]

One prediction I have for august is that I think we’re done with the terrible summer weather we had at the beginning of July and august no 17 degree sunless days i think no matter what we will stay around average the entire month.

[WYorksWeather]

 Don Yep, to anomalously mild south-westerlies with a huge 1040mb Azores high parked right over Spain, which then lasts until March.

(only slightly exaggerating given recent winters!).

Anyway, better leave it there otherwise we'll seriously derail Roger's thread...

[Don]

1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

Yep, to anomalously mild south-westerlies with a huge 1040mb Azores high parked right over Spain, which then lasts until March.

 

[weatherforducks]

18.0c and 50mm please

[John88B]

16.8 and 85mm please.

[Derecho]

Latest prediction for August based on the EC control. It looks like a very warm start but things will gradually become less warm after the 6th - 8th. Expect something around the early to mid 18s by the 10th. After that the scatter is large as you may expect with the control being pretty much the coolest ensemble member.

A well above average first half temperature wise looks likely for August but 2024 has seen plenty of contrasting halves.

[Don]

 Derecho Yet another very tricky month to put a guess on!

[feb1991blizzard]

16.7c and 56mm please

[Summer Sun]

16.1c for me please

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15.9C and 97.6mm please

[Derecho]

 Don I reckon somewhere around the low-mid 17s would be a good bet at this stage...

[Don]

 Derecho Yes, I’m thinking 17’s.  A warm month, but not exceptional by todays standards at least!

[Metwatch]

17.1°C and 76.5mm

A month I think that will have alternating very warm and drier spells interspread with cooler westerlies particular more in the first half. Thunderstorms may contribute a fair amount to rainfall totals especially tomorrow.

Edited July 31 by Metwatch

[Summer8906]

16.5 and 90mm.

Current forecasting seems to be going for a rather changeable and at times cool early part of the month, not very cyclonic but very Atlantic-dominated: something very typical of recent Augusts.

I'm going for something marginally below the 91-20 average, but equal to the 81-10, as I suspect that long coolish spells will be balanced out by a further short heat spike later in the month causing temps to briefly reach around 30C again.

As for rainfall, something slightly above the 91-20 average but not much. Doesn't look very cyclonic but I suspect it would only take a week or so of very disturbed weather at some point in the month, together with smaller amounts of rainfall at other times, to bring the month above average.

An autumnal end with a northerly preceding a large Atlantic high building in bang on cue, on September 1st.

In other words, a very typical August of the past 15 years or so.

Hoping September will provide a second (of a total of two?) decent month of 2024!

Edited July 31 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Derecho Mind you looking at those Rothamsted max temps only the very start (the first two days) are above average; it then becomes about average for a week before becoming decidedly cool around the 10th. Those maxima suggest "typical meh changeable Atlantic-dominated August" to me: remember that for southern coastal counties we perhaps have to subtract perhaps 2C off those, meaning as many as 6 days failing to reach 21C and none exceeding 25. So definitely, to my eyes, doesn't look warm!

 

Edited July 31 by Summer8906

[rwtwm]

17.2c and 89mm please

[Mr Maunder]

17.4c and 85mm for me please

MM

[Midlands Ice Age]

16.8C and 61mms please

MIA

[Kentish Man]

16.4C thanks

[damianslaw]

17.2 degrees, easily warmest month of the summer thanks to mild nights and more in the way of moist west/sw flows. Could see a hot spell at some point in the second half which could allow for mid to high 17s. A decent August but nothing special. Quite wet in the NW, dry and sunny much of England and Wales. 

Edited July 31 by damianslaw

[davehsug]

17.4C and 77mm please

[emmett garland]

17.8 and 72mm please Roger

[seaside 60]

17.5C

73MM

Thanks

[J10]

17.5c and 85mm