August 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

19.5 to the 3rd

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

18.6 to the 4th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

 Summer Sun A notably very warm start to August, but such means are quite common in the opening days of August, which typically coincide with absolute peak yearly maxims. 

Mild nights will stunt any further descent for a while meaning we could quite easily be sitting in the 18s still by mid month, a complete contrast to first half to June and July. Indeed it is likely to be a very traditional summer in the fact the warmest monthly period coincides with what is normally the warmest monthly period of the year roughly mid July to mid August and by some margin. Summer 24 has a very old school flavour about it unlike many a recent season.

[Derecho]

So here we have the latest predictions from the EC00Z control. Still a few days away but the EC ensembles are ramping up a plume for early next week. CET returns in the 20s look likely though as you might expect from a plume, rather short in duration.

After that temperatures a little above average but not especially so. Control on the cool side at the end. By the 20th I think the CET may be in the low to mid 18s.

Edited August 6, 2024 by Derecho

[Don]

 Derecho Looking like a warm month currently then, albeit a long way to go!

[Roger J Smith]

CET 

18.7 to the 5th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

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EWP 3.6 mm to 4th, est 7 mm to 5th. 

GFS indicates potential for 30 mm additional by 22nd (100-150 in NI and w Scotland). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.2C +1.5C above average. Rainfall 9.1mm 13.2% of the monthly average.

[WYorksWeather]

8 hours ago, Derecho said:

By the 20th I think the CET may be in the low to mid 18s.

Hope so - that would be good for my prediction. I would then need another warm spell, though.

[Don]

 WYorksWeather I would need a cool spell for my prediction to be in with a chance!

Edited August 6, 2024 by Don

[Summerlover2006]

 Don what was your prediction again?

[Don]

 Summerlover2006 17.4C

[Summerlover2006]

 Don I think that was exactly mine as well

[Don]

 Summerlover2006 You'll be wanting a cool down too then! 

[Summerlover2006]

 Don not really I guessed something most  likely to happen  if I was gonna name something I wanted to happen I would have gone with 20.0 haha 

[Don]

 Summerlover2006 If I had guessed something I wanted, I would have gone for around the low to mid 16's! 

[Summer Sun]

18.6 to the 6th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

 Summer Sun Not much movement, I anticipate being firmly in the 18s at half way point, and expecting August to be easily the warmest month of the summer. 

[Don]

 damianslaw Yes, I think it's (almost!) safe to say that August will be warmer than last year?!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.3C +1.6C above average. Rainfall 9.1mm 13.2% of the monthly average

[damianslaw]

 Don A summer mirroring last summer but swap June 23 for Aug 24, though this month unlikely to be as dry or above average mean wise.

A summer overall I will no doubt rank lower than last summer on account of any sustained very warm dry sunny weather here, Im not expecting August to deliver much in this respect and here temps won't be that far off the mean, the heat reserved for SE portion of UK. 

[Don]

 damianslaw Suits me not have any excessive heat!

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A summer mirroring last summer but swap June 23 for Aug 24, though this month unlikely to be as dry or above average mean wise.

Not sure about precip - so difficult to predict as a short very unsettled period could inflate the total a lot. But on averages, June 2023 was +2.9C on 1961-1990, we're currently at +2.9C for the month so far.

We might well be close after the halfway mark to where we are now - it's just a case then of whether we get any warm periods in the second half. I'm not sure a finish at 18.6C or above is particularly unlikely, though I agree it's not a probable outcome.

[Summer Sun]

18.2 to the 7th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

If this August is warmer than July, it will be the third consecutive year. Last time for that to happen was 2002-2004.

Before that, back to 1900, notable runs include: 

4 (1995-98), 3 (1973-75), 3 (1953-55), 5 (1936-40), 4 (1913-16) and 2.5 (1909-11, 1911 was tied).

Before 1900, will just note runs of 4+ (quite a few were capped at 3, but none in period 1864 to 1908) ...

4 (1840-43), 4.5 (1788 equal, 1789-92), 3.5 (1721-24, 1722 equal) and 4.5 1702-06 (1703 equal). Also, 1661-64 all equal. 

So never five in a row all cases warmer, or six even allowing one tie. 

The longest spell in reverse (July warmer) is ten in 1920-29 (1922 was a dismal success 13.7 vs 13.6). 1824 to 1830 at seven was also notable. 

There have been three pairs of consecutive Junes warmer than July following, 1845-46, 1919-20 and 1965-66. 

We could see later in 2024, the first appearance of two consecutive Septembers warmer than July, closest call to that (with so few Septembers warmer than July) was 1795-96 within 0.1 as Sep 1795 (16.0) was warmer by 0.8 and Sep 1796 came within 0.1 at 14.6 vs 14.7. The closest second differential since then was 0.9 in 1891 (after 1890 was warmer, Sep 1891 was 0.9 below July). 15.5 would beat that post-1796 second place pair (before 1795-96 second place was and still is just 0.2 below, warm Sep 1729 0.2 below July 1729, followed by a tie in 1730 and also only it was only 1.0 lower again in Sep 1731). 

Years when both Aug and Sep were warmer than July are 1795, 1802, 1821, 1895, and 2023, also Aug warmer and Sep tied July in 1708 and 1730 as well as 1961 and 1980. 

 

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.5C +0.8C above average. Rainfall 9.6mm 14% of the monthly average.