August 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Addicks Fan 1981]

@Derecho what is the latest stance from the EC control on how the rest of this month will pan out?   

[WYorksWeather]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Yep, coolest since 2015. Coolest since 2015 would be 16.25C in 2017. That would require a finish to August that is now probably impossible - something around mid 18s.

 

[Metwatch]

On 11/08/2024 at 13:15, Metwatch said:

Tricky to say how cool the second half of the month could be, but with near constant westerlies i'd imagine that would help to drop the CET down into the 17s soon enough. I reckon August will be warmer than the 1991-20 average of 16.6C, but unlikely to end up more than 1C above it.

Continuing to see a drop down as the cooler westerly pattern continues. Should be around the low 17s by the end of this week. Can't see the CET dropping down into the 16s as the last few days may see warmer air come back in. Anyone who guessed low 17s looks pretty good at the moment, and anyone with a low 17s CET and a dry EWP combined guess of below 50mm could be very close.

Edited August 20, 2024 by Metwatch

[Summer Sun]

17.6 to the 19th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[SqueakheartLW]

I think we can safely say now that summer 2024 will not be as warm as summer 2023 unless we can see a record breaking freak heatwave before the end of the month to push the August CET to at least 19.3C.

A 1995 repeat of 19.2C would see us equal last summer. A bit of an ask now and thanks largely to the 14C June this year vs the 17C June last year that we won't beat summer 2023

Could we beat the overall June to September period though?

          2023               2024

June.  17.0               14.0

July     16.1               16.3

Aug     16.4               (17.2) as a guess

Sep     17.0               19.0 required

That is one hell of an ask for a September month to not only achieve a 19C month which is a decent achievement in summer but would smash the September 2023 record by 2C.

Edited August 20, 2024 by SqueakheartLW

[Derecho]

Based on this mornings EC control it looks as though the CET should finish in the low 17s. The control was on the warm side for the last 2 days of August but it wasn't alone. Still a chance it could finish in the high 16s. Somewhere between 16.9C and 17.2C I reckon is looking good at this point.

Potentially a tad lower as EC hasn't been good at predicting some of the recent cool nights. 

 

Edited August 20, 2024 by Derecho

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.2C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 15mm 21.8% of the monthly average.

Looks a slow but steady drop the next five days. A hot end looks possible to the month which should keep the month slightly above average if it arrives.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho the CETs for this summer months in fairness aren't a million miles away then from summer 2002 and quite similar to summers of 1998 and 1990.   It'll be the coolest summer for 9 years in that case.   

[WYorksWeather]

Recently, I've been keeping track of the annual-to-date averages. For January to August, averaging the daily CET values, I get 2024 as the joint-seventh warmest. 2024 will still rise further in the coming days, since I'm comparing an average to end of August for all other years with one to the 20th for this year.

I'd expect the rest of August to add about 0.10 - 0.20 or so, depending on exact outcome.

The top 10 to end of August (including 2024 to 20th August) are below:

1. 2022 - 11.79
2. 2020 - 11.53
3. 1990 - 11.43
4. 2014 - 11.41
5. 2017 - 11.34
6. 1846 - 11.32
7. 2007 - 11.28 (T7)
8. 2024 - 11.28 (T7 - incomplete)
9. 2003 - 11.27
10. 1868 - 11.26

Based on calculations above, I'd expect 2024 to sit somewhere between 3rd and 5th. Neither 2022 or 2020 featured a particularly warm September, so a good chance for 2024 to catch-up perhaps. However, 2023 will come into the picture as competition  the very warm September last year, of course.

[StretfordEnd1996]

14 hours ago, Derecho said:

Based on this mornings EC control it looks as though the CET should finish in the low 17s. The control was on the warm side for the last 2 days of August but it wasn't alone. Still a chance it could finish in the high 16s. Somewhere between 16.9C and 17.2C I reckon is looking good at this point.

Potentially a tad lower as EC hasn't been good at predicting some of the recent cool nights. 

Still looking likely of a warmer spell (vs average) for last 3-4 days of the month (not sure if this is factored into your comment). Could still change though but I have to say, either way we may end up with a much lower CET than I thought we would after the first half or so of the month. I was thinking late 17s at the coolest, more like 18+. 

You mention high 16s - that'd potentially be within touching distance of my prediction (16.9) - looked no where near likely just 7-10 days ago. 

[TonyH]

 Earthshine Coventry has a MO site have a look at that the Bablake school station.

http://www.bablakeweather.co.uk/

Edited August 21, 2024 by TonyH

[Summer Sun]

17.6 to the 20th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

 Summer Sun Next few days set quite cool, we could dip into the 16s by early next week before a slight rise.. a notably warm August now not on the cards I feel i.e. 1.5 degree or more above 61-90 values. 

Edited August 21, 2024 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.1C +0.5C above average. Rainfall 15.5mm 22.5% of the monthly average.

[WYorksWeather]

 damianslaw Ironically, looking at UKV, the rain could actually help to prevent the CET from falling too far. These charts do sometimes understate how far temperatures drop overnight, as they reflect a spot temperature at a particular time rather than an overnight low, but even if you knock a degree or two off lows are generally remaining in low to mid double figures. Sunday morning looks to be the only particularly cool morning.

I still think low to mid 17s is a decent guess, expecting a couple of very warm days right at the end of the month. However, if the warmer weather gets delayed by a day or two, then perhaps high 16s is still possible.

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 21st

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now around 27 mm and will end up around 45 mm.

Scoring table (estimates) will be adjusted (now back several pages). Only forecasts below 55 mm will need any adjustments. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 15.9mm 23.1% of the monthly average.

[Metwatch]

Not solely related to CET just for August alone but interesting looking into coldest months in thread below, especially since the 1940s and seeing most of them aren't that much colder than the coldest months on record in the 17th and 18th century. So we can still get very cold months, but it has become a lot more difficult!

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Metwatch Yeah that has been quite notable as well when I've been doing my month-by-month charts. You can see on nearly all of them that since 1950 and sometimes even since 2000 there are one or two much cooler than average months for a lot of them. It's just weight of numbers really - a former 1 in 20 year cold month is now maybe 1 in 100, and vice versa for warm months.

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 22nd

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Possibly the real normals now are an 11-year interval starting July 2013 (and ending June 2024) ... those would be:

4.9 _ 5.9 _ 7.2 _ 9.2 _ 12.4 _ 15.3 _ 17.4 _ 16.7 _ 14.6 _ 11.5 _ 7.6 _ 6.1 ___ 10.7

It's interesting to compare with a preceding five year cold interval July 2008 to June 2013:

3.5 _ 4.3 _ 6.3 _ 9.3 _ 11.5 _ 14.2 _ 16.2 _ 16.1 _ 14.0 _ 10.7 _ 7.4 _ 3.4 ____ 9.7

All but April and November were significantly colder in that interval. 

Probably 1994 (or even 1988) to mid-2008 was closer to recent eleven than preceding five, or at least around an average of them. 

Current ranks of monthly averages in recent warmer interval, out of 355-356 ranked years:

77 _ 50 _ 43 _ 59 _ 60 _ 62 _ 46 _ 62 _ 42 _ 32 _ 47 _ 42 ____ 8

 

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.9C +0.3C above average. Rainfall 23.5mm 34.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 23rd

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.9C +0.3C above average. Rainfall 23.8mm 34.6% of the monthly average.

Looks like we will finish between 16.5C and 16.8C. Basically average.