Storms and Convective discussion- August 2024

[Supacell]

An interesting start to the month of August with potential for August 1st to be the most active day of the season so far, certainly of the summer.

Still even now there are some uncertainties and differences between the models. However, where we have been under the influence of a ridge, suppressing any convective activity through today, we will shortly be under a trough.

The result of that is that the risk of thunderstorms increases markedly. Not everywhere will see a storm, most will not, but there are likely to be some potent storms over the next 24 hours. Favoured areas currently are C+S England, the Midlands and into the SE and parts of EA. It appears wind convergence will provide a trigger, the question is where the convergence zones will set up. 

Keep discussing the potential in here for tonight, tomorrow and hopefully further opportunities through the final summer month. 

Old thread is here, along with a lot of helpful forecasts and charts.

 

[Thunders]

just set my camera up on my roof, as well as my wind measurer and thermometer. hopefully i can catch something

[Thunderspotter]

I want the second message! I want a chunk of Netweather history!  

Edited July 31 by Thunderspotter
added a smiley face lol

[Sam jackson88]

i think we we see some strong lightning and hear amazing thunder possibly tonight and tommorow, just asked thor to start the show XD

[Thunders]

 Thunderspotter better luck next month ig ( sorry if this sounds sarcastic ) just another 31 days 

[viking_smb]

I bag 6th message, the rain in the south west approaches to wales that will be the stuff for mid and north wales tonight

[Liamkaboom]

I have my timelapse camera set up on my roof... Just in case I catch something overnight!

[Thunderspotter]

 Thunders haha i could always do with some more luck

[oliverek7]

Lots of little cells popping up in the channel. Wonder if it’s really elevated still

[Eagle Eye]

At the moment feels like it might be one of those events where the lightning just won't happen. Hope I'm wrong. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Prize for message 11 hopefully goes to meeee

[Turquoise]

im the 12th message, and my birthday is on the 12th...so I win lol.

[Alderc 2.0]

Many years of radaring watching tells me these are nothing to get excited about. 

[Thunders]

 Eagle Eye yeah, doesn't feel the greatest but always hoping for the best 

 Alderc 2.0 thanks for the insight 

[Thunderspotter]

 Alderc 2.0 although willing to be proved wrong... right?

[Sam jackson88]

rolled back radar and this line far west has strengthened quited nicely and expanded a bit, fingers crossed it goes electrified!!

[Eagle Eye]

Would like to mention that there's also a risk Friday. Sleeper setup in that it's looking like it could be a half decent event a day after our main one. The UKV has been consistently showing it. May be something decent from that. 

 Alderc 2.0

If they're not electrified by now, those types of cells just usually clog up the channel, agreed. 

[ChannelThunder]

 Alderc 2.0 agreed. If they're going to go electrified, going by past events, they would've done so by now. I was keeping an eye on them when out with the dog a minute ago and any towers that built were soon flattening out again

[Me & angel fiance]

I am hoping for the best and seeing what Thanet brings.  Many of us that live here agree with tend to have our own microclimate here.  

My nets are down at the moment so I will be sleeping in my pjs (or should I say hoping I'll get woken up) on my bed instead of in.  So should have a decent view of there is a light show 

[Southern Storm]

 Eagle Eye You are probably right, it was looking more promising and hour ago, but now I'm thinking the same as you, very frustrating! 

There was talk this morning that the swiss model had some interest for Southern areas but I'm guessing it was being a little overoptimistic, the wait goes on. 

I'm off to France in a few days, how much do you want to bet that they'll be no storms over there for the next couple of weeks

[Alderc 2.0]

1 minute ago, Sam jackson88 said:

rolled back radar and this line far west has strengthened quited nicely and expanded a bit, fingers crossed it goes electrified!!

Storms need robust and rapid convective updrafts to generate lighting, slowly intensifying cells usually won't generate lightning unless they enter atmospheric conditions that are different. Given the cells south of Dorset aren't building quickly indicates conditions are not vastly different (currently) the stuff further west will traverse into  - although I will happily be proved wrong. 

[Harry]

 Sam jackson88 well…as of midnight it will be Thor’s Day, and over the years I have noticed Thursdays do tend to be fruitful

[ChannelThunder]

New cell directly south of Eastbourne for you Kent folk to keep an eye on.

[Sam jackson88]

 Alderc 2.0 thank you for the insight, im always hopefull and still rather new to this even though have followed for a couple of years. it may not look good but who knows what mother nature will do, fingers crossed.

[Cain]

Looks like it’s going to be a really frustrating one tonight nothing just seems to want to pop off