Hurricane Ernesto

[Lauren]

National Hurricane Center

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Currently on track to hit Bermuda as a Hurricane later in the week.

 

Edited August 14 by Lauren

[Lauren]

Looks like it's made minimal impact on b islands so far, thankfully. Eyes will be towards Bermuda later in the week where it is forecast to hit as a Hurricane. Possible we might see rapid intensification before then.

[lottiekent]

There’s been an escalation in forecast since I last looked - on Monday Ernesto was only expected to make hurricane status by Friday. Now it has upgraded and will probably be a hurricane by daybreak and expected to become a major hurricane before it hits the Bermuda islands.

This screenshot is taken from the last update at 11pm AST (4am BST):

Edited August 14 by lottiekent
Grammar

[Jo Farrow]

Bermuda Weather Service

WWW.WEATHER.BM

 and from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

 

[lottiekent]

Bermuda’s going to have a wild ride Saturday. Sustained winds currently 100mph as it approaches.

Interestingly (and unusually) you can see Ireland on the expected track for Ernesto once he’s done being a hurricane and continues the journey over the Atlantic:

 

Maybe the remnants reaching Ireland on Thursday, if it keeps to this forecast track?

[Lauren]

Webcam here. Already starting to get hairy!

 

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

[WYorksWeather]

 lottiekent Much more complicated than that - the track goes a bit all over the place. Up towards Iceland is a possibility, but so is straight into Ireland, and a few members going for something completely different and sending it down to Iberia. Probably another day or two as the extent of interaction with the Newfoundland coast will likely determine the ultimate outcome.

[Lauren]

Has a storm ever done an entire loop to go down towards Iberia and then come back across the Atlantic again for round 2?

[ChannelThunder]

 Lauren I don't believe so. They would have to travel hundreds, if not thousands of miles directly southwards along the west African coast to get back to the 'breeding ground'.

The historic hurricane tracks data suggests it hasn't happened:

[Lauren]

But in theory, with hot enough oceans, would it be possible? With the way the climate is going I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen!

[Methuselah]

 Lauren

But there is a 'cold' southward ocean current running down the African coast toward the equator, Lauren. But, should AGW continue at its present rate, who knows what might happen? 

Edited August 17 by Methuselah

[ChannelThunder]

 Lauren  seems extremely unlikely, regardless of sea temps, due to the semi-permanent Azores ridge that would always be right in the way of any system trying to get back to where it started, along with the jet stream pushing them towards northern Europe

 

 

Edited August 17 by ChannelThunder

[Dorsetbred]

Ernesto right over Bermuda this morning

images/pbw_preview.jpg

Port Bermuda Webcam - Cruise Ship Web Cam at the Royal Naval Dockyard in Bermuda

WWW.PORTBERMUDAWEBCAM.COM

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Port Bermuda Webcam at the Royal Naval Dockyard on the island of Bermuda. A live streaming HD-quality video window into the waterfront life of Bermuda's historic dockyard. Watch cruise ships, yachts and...

 

[Dorsetbred]

Fax charts suggesting ex Ernesto might well go between Iceland and Scotland.

T+96

T+120

 

[Dorsetbred]

Whilst GFS on Tropical Tidbits suggests it going south rather than north.

Edited August 17 by Dorsetbred

[knocker]

Given that Ernesto is likely to shortly go through extratropical transition this may be of interest

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/11/mwr-d-17-0027.1.xml

 

[Dorsetbred]

Fax charts showing ex Ernesto being absorbed by the Icelandic low on Weds 12:00

[Jo Farrow]

HEavy rain warning already for western Scotland Weds/Thurs thanks to the tropical energy from Ernesto remnants

[Jo Farrow]

From Sunday, as Wildfire smoke is being drawn across the north Atlantic across to the UK, giving reddish tinge to sunsets and moonrise

[Jo Farrow]

Remnants of Ernesto to bring midweek heavy rain and strong winds

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Parts of the UK will see heavy and persistent rain midweek thanks to the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto. There will be gales for the Irish Sea and high gusts for exposed northern routes.

 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Any more chat on this? Whole western half of Scotland has a weather warning and SEPA are warning about potential disruption too.

[Jo Farrow]

New blog this morning. Looks pretty grim on the west coast with heavy & persistent rain into the night, the push of water from surge, high tides, the SW/S winds and large waves. Calmac has already cancelled some ferries. Irish Sea also looking lively tonight (and early Friday from a different Atlantic low)

Wet and windy weather arrives from the Atlantic

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Heavy rain for western Scotland as the winds begin to pickup. Wednesday night looks wet and windy away from the southeast and concerns for an intense low over the Irish Sea on Friday morning.

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Glaswegianblizzard Here are the warning details:

Quote

Further detail

A band of rain is expected to move in from the southwest on Wednesday morning, becoming slow moving with heavy bursts of rain at times, especially over the hills. 75-100 mm is expected over the course of Wednesday and Thursday for some places, mainly over Argyll and West Highland, with the main bulk of the rain falling within a 24 hour period, with as much as 150 mm possible over some hills. Over Southwest Scotland accumulations of 30-50mm are likely.

The rain will be accompanied by strong southwesterly winds, with gusts perhaps reaching 50-60 mph on the coast and around the islands. With spring tides expected, this could also lead to some potentially dangerous conditions on the coast, with spray and wave overtopping. Peak winds are expected during Wednesday evening. Winds will ease through Thursday, along with a gradual clearance of the rain by the end of the day.