Storm Lilian 23/08

[Summer Sun]

The met office have named Storm Lilian for tomorrow morning across Northern England, North Wales and South West Scotland

An area of strong winds associated with Storm Lilian is expected to move east across northern England during Friday morning.

Whilst there remains some uncertainty about the details, some very strong winds are likely to develop, with gusts widely in the 50 to 60mph range, with a lower chance that a small core of winds gusting 65-75 mph, perhaps 80 mph, could push quickly east during the morning. 

These winds are likely to affect major routes such as the M6, A66 and A1(M), as well as potentially impacting infrastructure.

As well as the strong winds, some locally heavy rainfall will add to the difficult travel conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-08-23&id=1a0a4fcb-43b8-4a5a-a69c-283dcf6a7572

 

[Nick L]

Madness that this is only a yellow warning. That's seriously strong winds for August with trees in full leaf, hitting at rush hour and affecting major conurbations and transport routes.

[Cheshire Freeze]

If even 60mph happens then trees will be felled as they are in full leaf.

Pokey little feature for August.

[Supacell]

I think Storm Lilian makes 2023/2024 the year with the most named storms as it beats the previous 11 storms back in 2015/2016.

[Nick L]

 Supacell Not quite going to reach Nicholas though, gutted 

[StingJet]

The winds have backed off a tad on the UKV,   yesterday evening UKV had a swathe of peak winds hitting Barrow-in-Furnace area @ 104mph , now eased off a tad with the focus extended further south in to Liverpool Bay

Winds peaked here in the earlier hours of this morning ( phase 1)  just a notch under 60mph, expecting phase 2 "Lilian" to be marginally stronger with a shorter peak wind speed window 

Edited August 22 by StingJet

[StingJet]

Also noting Storm Lilian not quite achieving "explosive cyclogenesis"  a 24mb drop in central pressure of a given 24hr period 

[WYorksWeather]

 Nick L It's the likelihood that is doing it. Impacts would be high enough for amber, but not enough confidence yet. Met Office may issue an amber later today I guess depending on if the risk is considered to have increased.

[Nick L]

 WYorksWeather They rarely issue warnings outside of the 9-11am window so I doubt they'll issue another one now. Or they'll issue one tomorrow morning when it's too late to mean anything.

[WYorksWeather]

 Nick L Yeah I've known them do a nowcast warning - i.e. upgrade a yellow to an amber or amber to red for a few hours, starting at the point of issue.

[StingJet]

A pleasant day here now ~ light winds,  dry , sun appearing ..  the calm after and before the Storm(s) shall we say 

Edited August 22 by StingJet

[Fiona Robertson]

Just what we need with trees still in full leaf. Gonna do my usual of marking centre and screenshotting to track this darned thing. We had quite a timeof it yesty with the remnants of Ernesto. Twice we had sudden strong gusts which ripped leaves from trees, both times the noise was a tad worrying.

[WYorksWeather]

 Fiona Robertson Probably better to use Meteociel's live data rather than Earth - I think that uses latest GFS data so will always be a little bit behind actuals.

As of the time of this post, Lilian was centred broadly to the west / SW of the UK, and the central pressure is currently 998mb.

UKV this morning was calling for Lilian to be centred over northern England by 6am tomorrow morning, with a central pressure of 982mb.

Wind gusts do look quite severe actually - quite widely 50-60mph across northern England (eventually also some parts of eastern Scotland later after it moves off the coast). A small area looks to exceed 70mph.

If something like this does begin to look more likely, then I would have thought an amber might be justified. But equally there is a lot of uncertainty - the low at the moment is pretty innocuous at 998mb. There's always the chance that it doesn't deepen as the models expect, and so I kind of get why the Met Office wouldn't want to issue an amber and then end up looking silly.

[Jo Farrow]

 Summer Sun A1 northeast England and SE Scotland is very exposed - thinking of Friday morning

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not entirely sure this should be named in all honesty, we are looking at a fairly brief period of strong winds occuring in the early hours and it will be all over by early morning at the latest. 

We shouldn't be issuing named storms because isolated spots may reach 70mph. 50mph gusts seem to be the average and even then, it's not over a large area.

Yes quite strong for the time of year but we are not looking at these type of winds lasting over a longer period of time or during daytime hours which if that was the case, I think there be more justification for naming it.

 

[Taylorthesnowman]

 Geordiesnow not all of us are in nine to five jobs . I for one will be keeping a close eye on it. I have a 20 minute walk in the morning alongside a park just before 5am before getting on staff transport for work at six. I'm not looking forward to it. 

[Jo Farrow]

I think it's one of those summer storms where they are thinking about tourists and holidaymakers. Bringing attention to unseasonal conditions which might impact people travelling at the end of school hols, it's also Friday. Trees in full leaf, potential travel impacts for ferries, roads, rail . There was a summer storm that hit Cornwall in holiday season, MO named that for similar reasons.

[Jo Farrow]

The UKV shows vicious winds as it clears NE England on Friday morning with intense rain

[LightningLover]

 Jo Farrow Looks almost like a sting jet, but most likely isn't! 95-100mph gusts on the next few frames while it's in the North Sea, very intense feature.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Quite a significant pressure drop recorded over the sea right now. Up to 70km/h gusts in no time.

Edited August 22 by The Tall Weatherman

[WYorksWeather]

Central pressure now around 993mb just SW of Ireland. First landfall in Ireland probably by midnight.

[Man With Beard]

This looks really dodgy for the Mersey area on Arome and Arpege. This has gone under the radar with the media! 

Edited August 22 by Man With Beard

[Wold Topper]

Could be a rough morning at Creamfields tomorrow, wouldn't want to be camping tonight

[Jo Farrow]

 Man With Beard

Arome showing intense wind core over Merseyside/Manchester way

The Arpege is different with gust core furhter south and later

[ChannelThunder]

Looks like a fun ferry over to Southampton for me first thing in the morning!