The fabled combo: warm dry spring followed by hot dry summer

[raz.org.rain]

I'm curious, has this combination ever been observed? Very generally speaking, fantastic springs (very warm and dry) have a habit of leading into unexceptional average summers at best, and the opposite is occasionally true. The early 2010s and late 2000s seem to be good examples, with very warm springs and notoriously bad summers.

Usually when we get fantastic early warmth in spring, it's a bad omen for summer heat. Are there examples where both seasons are fantastic for warm-to-hot and dry weather? I think 2020 is the only recent example of a very warm and dry spring at least not leading onto an exceptionally poor summer.

[Coldilocks]

Closest I can think of is 2019 although that summer was pretty wet.

[MP-R]

2003 is perhaps a close match, although neither season was exceptionally dry, but had a long dry period in each. Mid March to late April was very dry, as was August in summer.

[Catbrainz]

2022 may count as well. Spring was overall dry, sunny and warm (Only May let it down by being on the cloudier side) and we all know the summer that followed. 2022 was just a very anticyclonic year overall. 

[danm]

2022. 

[IcySpicy]

Here in Estonia  I'd say 2018 was the closest but with the caveat that I don't really consider March spring. Yes, March was very cold that year but March is often cold here so I don't really count it when judging whether spring was warm or not. April and May are the months I want to be warm.  And in 2018 April warmed rapidly after a few colder days in the beginning of the month and May was very warm. 

[raz.org.rain]

Can't believe I forgot 2022 actually, that May was actually very pleasantly warm and dry here

[Weather Enthusiast91]

The only ones that come to mind are 2003, 2018 and 2022. 

[SqueakheartLW]

 Weather Enthusiast91

58 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

The only ones that come to mind are 2003, 2018 and 2022. 

Not so sure 2018 qualifies as a good spring and summer combined

 

March 2018 was dull and cold

April 2018 was mixed but wet at times

Only May to July 2018 were decent

August 2018 was the let down month of the summer

 

Out of the 6 months I'd say 3 were decent, two a bit meh and one average at best.

[SunChaser]

Apart from the obvious (03/22) another easy one would be 1990. I'd also be inclined to say 1989 as the only bad month in the whole spring/summer period was April, though it was pretty terrible, all the other months were very warm and dry.

2014 perhaps? Like spring 2022 in that March was great and April and May were just ok but leading into a lovely summer.

Spring and summer 1997 were both also quite good right?

[A Face like Thunder]

Has to be 1976 for those of us old enough to remember it. Great spring weather from the start of April leading to arguably the best summer in living memory. Pity about the autumn but that's another question.

[Cloud2]

2022 had an unusually hot spring followed by an unusually hot summer, there could barely be a better recent example of what you've described.

[SqueakheartLW]

On 12/09/2024 at 22:09, Cloud2 said:

2022 had an unusually hot spring followed by an unusually hot summer, there could barely be a better recent example of what you've described.

 Cloud2

2022 is in fact the best example of this full stop if you take all monthly CET's and monthly EWP values and rank them in order for each month between March and August then add up the rankings. The result came out as follows with 2022 the joint best ranked of all springs and summers combined for warmth and dryness.

2022 has warmest spring and summer CET mean and 7th driest EWP total for the 6 months making it the overall highest ranked across both temperature and dryness.

1879 must have been a total horror show of a spring and summer, consistently cold and wet.

[Cloud2]

 SqueakheartLW Quite interesting that not one of the bottom 80 is from the 21st century, although I suppose the increasingly warmer temperatures make it quite hard for a 6 month period to rank low overall.

[Summer8906]

1995 kind-of. The three spring months were not non-stop settled but had more fine weather than bad weather, so all three could be considered above-par. That gives 6 months from Mar-Aug and October was pretty decent too.

1989 was extremely nice in May but March very dull and wet (like 2023/2024 for three weeks but a fine end) and April cold but unsettled.

1990 had a good run March-September but was interrupted by a dull and cool June.

1959 was extremely sunny May-Sep but again March and April looked rather wet from the stats.

2003 had a poor May and July was rather unsettled in the second half, but otherwise had a good run from February all the way through to October.

1949 for sunshine perhaps, though April and May were perhaps on the wet side.

1984 had a nice April, June, July and August but a dire May.

1997 had a very good March, April and September, a mostly good May, July and October and a hot if sometimes wet August - but was interrupted by a dire June.

So nothing that would completely make the grade but those would probably be closest. I think it's probably between 1990, 1995 and 2003.

2022 would actually be below some of the above IMO, because May was slightly poor and June nothing special.

Edited September 24, 2024 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 11/09/2024 at 08:06, SunChaserWales said:

I'd also be inclined to say 1989 as the only bad month in the whole spring/summer period was April,

March too - but the May to August period was indeed spectacular.

Edited September 24, 2024 by Summer8906

[Metwatch]

2025 making a run for this combo?

[StretfordEnd1996]

 Metwatch Not in the NW so far in all honesty ..!

[B87]

2003 and 2022 definitely count. 2018 doesn't because the first half of spring was dreadful.

2025 will probably join the list.

[B87]

1995 could fit, though June was on the cool and dull (but dry) side that year.

1997 denied by a terrible June. Even 2014 and 2017 came close, let down by August in both years.

[SunChaser]

Is there a single year that has had as good of a run from March to July as this year? With what's being forecasted for the middle of July right now anyway. 2025 just keeps going with the good weather, even all the way out west June was still decent but not as great as in the SE.

[B87]

 SunChaser2014 was most warm, dry and sunny from March to the start of August, May was very thundery. 2003 the same

Edited July 8 by B87

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SunChaserLet's hope we don't get 6 months payback of floods!

[snowdog]

 *Stormforce~beka* It's usually when the kids break up for Summer holidays that the weather changes to cool and cloudy!

[Cloud2]

 SunChaser 2020 may have been better, while March this year was nicer than 2020, June 2020 was nicer than 2025 so I think you could make an argument for 2020. If the July heatwave that is being forecasted comes off then I would say that March to July 2020 would definitely be better.