2024 post mortem (A in depth discussion of why 2024 has been so poor)

[Catbrainz]

I said I would make such a thread in the moans thread and I being a man of my word followed through. Ill add my bit and I hope to hear insightful takes on this years weather patterns. 

I would sum up 2024 being so poor down to a few factors 

1. Late season SSW causing the west based NAO- form of northern blocking this spring and with a dead Atlantic nothing to shift the Euro low (A truly vile pattern no matter the time of year west based NAO- is putrid). NAO+ can be rancid in the winter (Feb 2024 being a good example) but typically outside of winter is never going to be bad as a NAO- gone pear shaped even the most unsettled NAO+ set ups in spring tend to bring nicer days between fronts/lows. 

2. Strong IOD+ which led to a strong PV and a NAO+ on steroids in Feb shooting endless lows. 

3. Not so much away from the NW but in summer we had again a NAO+ on steroids with a big low stuck over Iceland and Greenland and NW UK well was near enough to the low to get a lot of rain and unsettled weather. 

4. Low AAM+ has been a big factor for summer at least. Due to a stagnant atmosphere there hasn't been much Azores riding into Europe or anything to really soften the Icelandic low. While it wasn't a bad summer for the southern UK due to a strong jet keeping the low to the north there wasn't really anything to shove low heights from the NW. 

5. Nino decline has likely been a big factor. 1998 was similar in being a post strong Nino decline and that year had a lot of poor weather too with a very wet April and summer was rather naff apart from August for the south. 2024 largely followed the same path as 1998 did until the summer (Nina is AWOl while in 1998 she came crashing in) 

 

[Harry233]

2024 has probably been one of the worst years for weather I can ever remember, thing is though no month has actually been abnormally bad. The summer especially has felt awful but it actually wasn’t at all wet or overly dull, in fact I had my driest July since 2018 (certainly didn’t feel like it though) It’s just been constantly unsettled all year. There has been absolutely no heat in the summer and to have my warmest day on 11th May (highly doubt it will reach over 25.C here again this year) is absolutely ridiculous. Both May and September have recorded a higher maxima than all the summer months (we didn’t exceeded 24.C all summer) every single summer here since I started keeping a record in 2000 exceeded 24.C in at least one month. 

However on a more positive note September this year so far has been a lovely month up here, very sunny, often dry and quite warm (turned notably chilly the last few days) I recorded my first frost this morning (-0.2.C). Does look to warm up again over the weekend, so hopefully the autumn can be a lot more settled and sunnier this year. Don’t mind if it’s cool but some sunshine and settled weather for a while would be lovely.

[cheeky_monkey]

there is still a 1/3 of the year left yet seems a bit premature 

[Catbrainz]

 cheeky_monkey Even if we got endless settled weather Oct-Nov and topped it off with a Dec 2010 this year would be widely regarded as rather poor at best with most of us getting almost 3 months of total garbage from Feb-Mid April and areas in the NW have had pure utter dross all year (Most areas did get a okay to decent summer to be fair going by stats and Sept is shaping up to be decent) apart from a few wet days for the south earlier this month). 

[IcySpicy]

Weirdly enough, despite these poor synoptics/background drivers (which I know don't affect us exactly the same as the UK but most analogue years like 1998 or even 2016 weren't particularily warm in Estonia either), 2024 is turning into a rather decent weather year here in Estonia. At this point the only thing that could ruin it is a very cold first half of October. November and December are whatever, it's the darkest and gloomiest time of the year and pretty much impossible to get anything nice for my tastes. Some clear frosty days in Nov and some snow and not too cold temps in Dec would be better than 2C and rain in either month but still wouldn't change my rating of the year much as I'm not a winter lover. 

Also February to Mid April was rather dull. It wasn't too bad temperature wise as we had a few warm days in late March and April but the lack of sun was bad. Usually March and Early-mid April is still quite cold here but it's usually dry and at least partly sunny. This year all cold days were cloudy as well, which was rather naff. 

But still, overall this year has been decent, especially May and September. It's not as good as 2018 was but compared to the average year in Estonia it's been pretty good. We've had years like 2017 where every month from April to July was colder than average and then August to October was also wetter than average lol. Also from recent years, 2020, 2021 and 2022 all had absolutely naff springs and 2021/2022 had cold Septembers as well. It's rare to get a year here were all months from April to October are warmer and sunnier than average. While this year didn't have a scorching dry summer, all summer months came out a bit warmer than average, incl late May and early Sept so that's already a win.

 

Edited September 13, 2024 by IcySpicy

[Catbrainz]

I wouldn't say this year has had non stop poor weather (Away from the NW at least). Mostly we just had a utter garbage Feb-mid April period and while May-Aug weren't terrible or poor they were average so not enough to make up for spring. (Drier than average but temps and sunshine levels weren't anything to write home about). Jan was actually quite decent for here at least a lot of quiet pleasant if somewhat boring weather. 

I reckon Nino decline is likey the biggest driver behind this year not having much anticyclonic weather, in fact this year from Jan up to May has had a lot of similarities to 1998 another Nino decline year. (Im guessing Nina being AWOL is why summer turned out better than 1998s did, 1998 was utter garbage in June and July and August while good for the south was still utter garbage for the NW). 

[The PIT]

Wasn't a bad summer at all. Average temps below average rainfall there's been a lot worse summers.

[danm]

Summer was OK here, a very nice second half to June, very nice second half to July and a largely warm and sunny August. Early June was very cool, but sunny and dry. Early July was the only really bad spell of the Summer here, cool and wet. 

Spring was poor though - dull and wet. 

As for Winter, I really don't expect much these days. Getting substantial, long lived snowfall in lowland Britain is becoming increasingly hard, so I just tend to expect that Winter will offer up a largely uninspiring mix of cold, cool, dull, rainy or sunny weather with little in the way of frost and snow. That will continue to be the case, largely, as our climate gets warmer. 

The seasons where our expectations are rising are in Spring and Summer. Our climate is getting warmer and we've been through a number of warm/hot and sunny Spring and Summer seasons over the last 10 years. 

Edited September 17, 2024 by danm

[Summerlover2006]

I’ve really only hated February March and April this year January was very interesting with a mix of cold weather and mild stormy weather. May was great here with lots of warm sunny days the second half of June saved it from being a flop and there were many warm sunny days in in July and August and I’m enjoying how changeable September is being.

 

[Catbrainz]

 The PIT I agree away from the NW it was pretty average for the most part with only early July being poor nationwide. I do feel though if a spring was really poor summer should be at least 2014 level of good to make up for it, If spring had been average and summer as it was I would have been okay with 2024 so far. 

 danm This summer did feel more like a typical 20th century summer to me. Reminds me more of something you'd see from the 70s or 80s rather than a 21st century summer. 

[Summer8906]

 cheeky_monkey Oct-Dec is moderately poor even in an average year though. So on the balance of probability things will not improve dramatically now - it's too late. We could get a notably sunny October and/or cold and wintry December but I suspect the best we'll get is dry and cloudy. Also the Met Office Oct long-range isn't terribly encouraging, that takes us out to Oct 20 by which time it's only a few days to the clocks going back and once that happens, the chances of good weather are really very slim. So certainly personally, for my location, 2024 will very likely end up the poorest year since before 1978, the first year I have significant weather memories of.

(Sorry, just discovered this thread so rather late reply...)

 Catbrainz Interesting post, thanks.

What are your feelings on the coming winter, incidentally? Is there a pattern for Nina winters? Can we expect any form of improvement in the coming months? If the 1998 analogue continues we can expect a rather unsettled Oct-Jan period on the whole but something of an improvement in the late winter and the spring; 1999 wasn't a terrible year.

As for here, though I missed July and Aug, cloudiness seems to have been the number one defining trait of the year, due to a lack of anticyclonic activity, and wetness for the majority of months (only June and Aug drier than normal).

The constant unsettled nature of the weather has been the defining feature with a decided lack of anticyclonic spells and none of the small number we have had lasting more than a week.

Edited September 22, 2024 by Summer8906

[Penrith Snow]

Do we have a Prospects For Winter Discussion thread yet? If we do I can't find it a and with long range forecasts coming in we certainly need one.

Andy

[Seasonal Trim]

I've enjoyed 2024 in my area. Some decent sunny spells with no over the top temperatures and a cold spell already! Winter could still be a winter wonderland.   

[Catbrainz]

 Summer8906 Nina tends to be more front ended overall for winter in terms of cold potental. Not sure how winter will pan out at this stage yet though. 
 

Another factor that’s made 2024 so poor id say is just pure bad luck. We have had plenty of blocking just in the wrong places. In spring it was all over Iceland and Greenland. September we have had bad luck in the south. If the cut off low earlier on had gone to say Iberia or Central Europe rather than France we would had a far more settled September. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Penrith Snow Go create one sweety!

[cheeky_monkey]

2024 in my location has been pretty good so far..winter was much shorter than usual  ..spring wasnt too wet and summer was hot and mostly sunny once we got out of June..so far September has been pretty nice with total lack of any real frosts.

[SunChaser]

It does seem like this year we've been unable to build any kind of good synoptics near the UK for more than a week at a time, we just seem to get the unluckiest outcome, more so than other years. I guess the highlight of this year has been summer being "average" and somewhat dry as opposed to what came before, the worst spring I've ever lived through and the worst February I've ever lived through. Obviously autumn + Dec will affect whether this year ends up on the truly horrendous list or just a poor year.

I'd rank this above 2012 (endless rain) and probably level with 2004 (consistently below average but rarely awful) and 2008 (which had 4 decent/good months and the rest was horrible).

[Catbrainz]

Overall if I had to sum up what has caused 2024 to so poor weatherwise I would say as below

El Nino decline= 20%
Late SSW= 35%
Pure bad luck= 45%

[Brad in Kent]

Here in Kent it's been just about passable since August although as with summers like that it felt like it ended just as it got going. 

What's brought this year down to me is the late Jan to mid July period. As others mentioned above things didn't fall our way synoptically with no settled spells. 

On the ground, it led to flora being too early followed by the sunless spring. To me the landscape and feel barely changed from mid March until early summer with little distinctive seasonal shift. There wasn't that feeling of spring blooming and progressing towards summer with those grey skies and muted flora. Also, never was there any sunny days accompanied with birdsong which is one of my favourite aspects of spring, just the sound of wind and din of traffic which felt rather unnatural under grey skies in April.

There wasn't any spring I this year's spring. 

Then after that we hoped for the sun to come out and summer to pick up the pieces. It did eventually turn up here but the season was already near enough done. 

Autumn so far has been variable but its never good to rely on November and December to save a year!

[Catbrainz]

Forgot about this thread but felt fitting to bring it back now that 2024 has ended. Looking at synoptics its easy to see what went wrong. The Greenland high shoving lows from the SW into us is what caused the poor weather here as you can see here in the Jan-May period (Where most of the very poor weather happened). Don't do west based NAO- folks its bad for your mental health!. The question is what caused it (It carried on from July 2023-May 2024). I speculate that it might be due to Nino as you get more atmospheric forcing under a strong Nino or Nina as apposed to a weaker one or a neutral. Not to say all Ninos will cause such a set up but that we had mega bad luck with this Nino. (As you can see we had basically the same set up during this Nino all the way and it taped off to a more normal pattern in summer when Nino was gone). 

 

[Summer8906]

 Catbrainz Do you have the anomaly maps for a) July 2023-June 2024 or b) all of 2024, incidentally?

Can you remind me of the site where you can generate these anomalies? Thanks.

Edited January 8 by Summer8906

[Catbrainz]

 Summer8906 I do indeed. 

1) July 2023-June 2024

2) 2024 as a whole


3) Bonus 2nd half of 2024 

 

As expected July 2023-June 2024 you can see that there was just a endless west based NAO-. No wonder it was so rotten!. 2nd half of 2024 has been slightly more anticyclonic than average if anything and i would call it a very weak NAO+ for the 2nd half. Inert is the word I would use to describe the 2nd half of 2024. (The site I use to make those charts is here) https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

Edited January 8 by Catbrainz

[WYorksWeather]

 Catbrainz What will be interesting I think is whether the slower-moving and more anticyclonic patterns since early November continue as we move further into 2025. Having struggled to get more than an odd anticyclonic few days here or there earlier on, we had a significant anticyclone in early November, then two in December. Of course, both months featured a fair amount of rain, but both managed to finish drier than average. And of course, shorter range modelling now shows a strong anticyclone persisting for at least 7-10 days after the weekend.

If this were to continue, it might set us up for more of a seasonal 2025. That sort of continued pattern could set us up for some further cold for the rest of the winter, then warm and cold periods through the spring depending on the high position. After that, it could lead on to a classic hot and dry summer.

I hope the pattern holds, as it would make this year far more interesting than last for weather enthusiasts of any persuasion.

[Catbrainz]

 WYorksWeather Yeah last year the high just sat over Greenland extending south of it as well which shoves lows into Europe from the SW.  Even a full out zonal NAO+ year would be far better than 2024. Years that pop to mind for that sort of set up I think of 2014 and 2020 and both while not the most inspiring years (Both did have at least a few good months) were a far sight better than the mid 2023-mid 2024 period. I wonder if the west based NAO- we had was caused by Nino I mean we pretty much had that set up from when he came in to when he left. 

[WYorksWeather]

 Catbrainz I think as well worth recalling that +NAO only means average pressure over the Azores is higher than over Iceland. Technically a strong UK high is +NAO.

I think what I'd just generally like to see is much more anticyclonic and drier weather in general. We have a massive rainfall surplus. Not saying we want to go into full-on drought conditions, that would be just as bad, but I don't see why a 2025 with 80% average rainfall would be terrible, ideally with some well-timed dry periods in the spring, summer and early autumn when they're the most beneficial for outdoor activities.