Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[TSNWK]

Question for the mjo and aam ? Knowledge people

Are what seeing within recent det runs across the board aligned with what would be expected from current mjo and aam thoughts?

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by TSNWK

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 CoventryWeather i spotted a slight edge for this over the last day or so, cluster 6 also toying with it.

Desperately trying to keep my feet on the ground lol.

But one things for sure, it's bought me out of hibernation!!

[Met4Cast]

 TSNWK 

Indeed.

The MJO & subsequently AAM will become increasingly unfavourable as the MJO transitions through the Indian Ocean, the current blocking on offer is a combination of lagged MJO phase 7-8 combined with the recent fall in AAM. 

The fall in AAM triggered the high across the UK to begin migrating west (accounting for lag) and the jet returning runs into this high, buckles and amplifies it northwards. So it's mostly a combination of very good timing rather than any specific driver I think, it definitely helps that the stratosphere isn't driving things either.

 

With the MJO transitioning the Indian Ocean & falling AAM a return to +NAO seems likely later in November/during early December, timing always a struggle but a sustained & prolonged cold spell seems unlikely so lets hope we can squeeze a lot out of this one! Then it's all eyes on the MJO to see what the next cycle does.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Met4Cast

[northwestsnow]

Well @blizzard81 without wanting to make this sound like a GP waiting room I'm coming down with something I've bad headaches and a blocked nose

Guess ill(as in I'll)be here watching every frame of every model every day ...

Of course the 00z Euro looks amazing (but only for the broad evolution and its the minor details that matter)..

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by northwestsnow

[MJB]

 HarvSlugger Don't expect anything too snowy, it will be " turning colder, below average temps, wintry ppn in favoured spots "

[Nick2373]

Rain to snow event for many then backwards snow to rain. 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Nick2373

[HarvSlugger]

 MJB personally for myself, this cold spell, I have more chance of snow  next week than the beast from the east, I'm in a good location for northerlies

[MJB]

 Nick2373 Be amazing if that happened but as we know .........................................

[Lukesluckybunch]

6z looking fine early on .the main area of the trough is staying to the east of Iceland,this is what we want 

[Chesil View]

 northwestsnow Indeed so Nws and any o e taking slider or channel runner detail seriously at this range is setting themselves up for a big fall.

T24 and less for that sort of detail.

[TSNWK]

 Lukesluckybunch yep.. looking a litlte better if anything -  cold coming in quicker - heights looks slightly higher into greenland with our trough a little further east as it starts to drop

actually it might now be spreading the cold out a little far out into the Atlantic.. will introduce challenge in getting the deep cold over us? - THE DRAMA!

Edited November 12, 2024 by TSNWK

[MJB]

Plenty of snow up North

[MJB]

Cold air established , look west and hope for the best  

 

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by MJB

[HarvSlugger]

 MJB the 850s are from the midnight run

[Mcconnor8]

 MJB Going to be a beauty of a slider here at Day 9 again 

[TSNWK]

 MJB watching that runner like a hawk! will it go under....

[tight isobar]

Well formed channel low and bumping into cold set air= snow machine !!

[Mcconnor8]

 TSNWK

Heavy snow for Southern England, you couldn't really line up a slider any better, picture perfect stuff 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[Georgina]

 northwestsnow I truly hope so I’m only down the road from Buxton  

[MJB]

 HarvSlugger Edited, thank you

 

Meanwhile

Widespread snow in the South 

[TSNWK]

 Mcconnor8 yep.. it just made it under..... Thats enough for me / looks like Vortex ramping up will spoil  later part of this run. but up to day 10 This GFS is accepted.

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by TSNWK

[HarvSlugger]

 MJB this better not be a thing where it just trends south each day then completely misses the uk

[tight isobar]

Absolute txt book grade CL- 1 run at it but that’s got distribution written ALL over it- midlands south!!

[Mcconnor8]

 HarvSlugger No where near getting the details right at this point but we have the GFS and ECM AI giving perfect sliders so there is hope 

[MJB]

 HarvSlugger And how many times have we seen that lol