Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Mark Parsons]

 phil nw. with a massive sea track!

[MJB]

 HarvSlugger Wintry ppn over northern hills at the start of next week - colder by day and night - as expected really

[nick sussex]

 Murray991

It's great to see younger folk taking a keen interest in the emotional rollercoaster of the coldies search for the Holy Grail !

 

[phil nw.]

 johncam

Yes indeed but how much remains to be seen.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Northwest NI I have the valium at the ready! Fresh crate in this morning ready to go ... I can't believe what the charts are showing us but I'm seriously NOT belieiving any of this channel low stuff!!

[phil nw.]

 Mark Parsons

Yes but still that is cold source from over the pole.

Modification of course but even so it's good to see this Arctic outbreak so early in the season.

[Rayth]

 nick sussex 

 

Absolutely ! but each thread chase should come with a warning sign like a packet of fags ! got the scars to prove it 

[Mcconnor8]

Unfortunately the ECM AI 6z wasn't as good as the 0z, weaker heights into Greenland leads to the cold air struggling to reach us and the Atlantic moving back in soon after

[MJB]

 *Stormforce~beka* Being honest the CL is just too far out to be taken seriously ......................................just yet 

[blizzard81]

 northwestsnow Indeed mate. Mine was a slow burner and then hit me like a train. Worst I've had for many years. Hope you manage to fight yours off before it's gets any worse. In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful winter chart on offer

[Dennis]

i hope to see some snow in the weekend Norway 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Channel Lows are so hit and miss . 

More often miss ! They tease and then often track too far south . 

You might get a better chance of a hit with a slack trough over the UK . The reason being when you have blocking outputs normally underestimate that and prog the low further north and then with time the block forcing comes into play .

At this time of year you can develop some decent cold with slack flows ,lowish heights and 850 values not that cold .

So it's better to have something like the ECM 00hrs run which would have less mixing . 

Still waiting to see the 06 hrs . Let's hope for good things .

[Metwatch]

I've always wondered if a 10th December 2017 repeat could in theory take place 2 weeks earlier if there is enough cold air on the northern side of a sliding low across the channel / southern England and deliver a great event for central areas still within meteorological autumn (remember wedges make sledges ). Quite a few recent deterministic runs seems to think it's possible next week, but that's too far out to get overly excited about them. If it's modelled within 48 hours, that would start to interest me.

Given my location that's what i'm personally looking out for rather than a boring chilly northwesterly airflow which would unlikely deliver much in the way of anything wintry here, (compared to coastal areas or the North / northwest) even with any small disturbances or streamers from convergence.

Edited November 12 by Metwatch

[Notty]

I don’t know which models feed the Apple weather app but I now have my first snow symbols of the silly season

[Lukesluckybunch]

43 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Unfortunately the ECM AI 6z wasn't as good as the 0z, weaker heights into Greenland leads to the cold air struggling to reach us and the Atlantic moving back in soon after

Not much wrong with that really mcconnor..a lack of proper blocking but still very cold!

[Northwest NI]

 Notty same here and the temperatures dropping day on day like they trying to win a certain teatime quiz show…

[sheikhy]

Everything pushed east slightly at 90 hours on ecm control!can it carry on that way though....!

[Frosty.]

Well, there’s 87 online..something must be afoot . …and there is, I’ve just seen the 6z and if anyone tells me there is NO wintry potential next week across the models?!!..you cannot be serious!  …

Edited November 12 by Frosty.

[Retron]

 northwestsnow

Well they have " snow dogs " in Buxton this winter

I've got one of those (from the auction in Ashford, 6 years ago) - they're massive! I doubt mine'll be getting snow on his paws this time round, though, as down here in Kent it's looking more like traditional cold rain rather than a winter wonderland. It would be very early to get snow on the ground and it's only happened in November a handful of times in the last 40 years.

That said, the models are looking very interesting compared to what we've seen recently and as we know, that "diving low" scenario is always unpredictable, even down to the last minute. Snow fans will want to see it kept to the south of the UK, as in P1 of the 6z GEFS, and even if you're not a snow fan - if that secondary low ends up further north it's likely to be thoroughly miserable, with very strong winds and plenty of rain. The last couple of GFS op runs have had gusts into the 60s locally and I really don't fancy that.

I'd be more encouraged if the ECM would join in the fun. If you check the plumes (sample link here), you'll see that none of the 50 members bring -10 850s - unlike GEFS, which has had a few in the past few suites.

[bluearmy]

 sheikhy have found it to day 6 on certain views and parameters 

Atlantic ridge slightly better 

system running west to east days 5/6 slightly further south 

uppers a bit lower on Monday than the 00z run 

let’s hope the 06z data is readily available by tomorrow 

now visible as the eps control on meteociel - remember this control is the ec 06z op run 

Edited November 12 by bluearmy

[Mcconnor8]

 bluearmy

Yes better ridging towards Greenland on the 6z

[Lukesluckybunch]

16 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Yes better ridging towards Greenland on the 6z

What time is that 6z control complete?

[Polaris]

Nice to see the models toying with possible snow next week. 
Northern hills and mountains stand a better chance (stating the obvious) 

Whilst the snow fest for the south looks and teases excitement these sliders or channel lows are fickle 18 hours out let alone at D11 

History tells us, that if this were to materialise a movement/correction south is inevitable leaving no appreciable PPN in place. 

Northern England/ Scotland come 19th could be in with a chance for its first snows of the 24/25 season. 
 

Would love a slack flow to take hold

Edited November 12 by Polaris

[TSNWK]

 Lukesluckybunch up to144 now - a smidge better with heights into Greenland and tiny smidge colder - we are talking rounding errors in essence.

[HarvSlugger]

 TSNWK every little upgrade helps