Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Battleground Snow]

Nice dump of snow over the midlands @sheikhy from the icon.

Gona be a long few days with these sliders 

[HarvSlugger]

 Battleground Snow Pembrokeshire is in line with the midlands so I'm assuming Pembrokeshire too?

[Dennis]

the winterstorm ....?

[northwestsnow]

No thanks ICON.

Uppers are rubbish.

Next..

[bluearmy]

Icon 12z looks like it’s headed towards potential ‘phase gate’ in the w Atlantic by the end of the run

Could do with the Azores ridging sticking around long enough for the nw euro trough to move east and drag the flow wih it rather than dragging its feet so that the lowest heights head west to meet what’s inevitably going to move eastwards off the eastern seaboard 

[Battleground Snow]

 HarvSlugger im sure there will be a combination of rain, sleet and snow on the day.

At nearly a week away I'm just sharing these for fun, although based on history midlands is a good place to be with channel lows

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow that’s what deepening systems will do to the set up 

we want slack features !

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy I know

I'll be mighty annoyed if GFS is closer to the reality with this bowling ball low its got the potential to ruin everything if its too far North...

Edited November 12, 2024 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

It’s been far too easy for the weather forecasters / presenters in the last few weeks with this predominantly benign / anticyclonic pattern..BUT…next week will be more difficult / complicated for them as the weather becomes more unsettled and colder…potentially much colder…with, dare I say it..wintry showers! …I’m going to enjoy how this develops, big things have small beginnings! ..,and the meteorological winter is still almost 3 weeks away..oh my gosh!  
 

ps..I’ve been here since 2005 and I’ve learned that taking  every operational run as gospel is, how can I put this.. ..a mistake!  

Edited November 12, 2024 by Frosty.

[Matty88]

 Dennis This would be fun (especially in January!) - however caution needed, as with SST's in the North Sea still relatively high deep windy lows can act as a kill switch for the snow level around coastal and even inland regions, dependent on positioning. A slack low would be better with the uppers currently being forecast. 

[northwestsnow]

We don't want ICON guys ..

Let's hope it's not a sign of things to come at 12z...

[Speedbird]

 northwestsnow Not sure it will ruin everything. Sure for those down south it would represent something of a downgrade but would present some opportunities for those further north

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Speedbird

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow I think a bowling ball further south would also be a problem 

at this time of year we don’t want the mixing which results from deepening 

[northwestsnow]

 Speedbird

Listen to BA mate it's poor.. 

 

[blizzard81]

 northwestsnow I seem to remember an ECM op that also blew the low up in the last day or two. We don't want to see that trend returning.

[Nick2373]

The two o'clock update from the MET, Doesn't bring much in hope of snow further south or quite possibly even North now?  Organised rain apparently for the south.  

The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage however remains low. Less certainty for the south but even here there is a chance of some more organised rain, and potentially some hill snow. 

As per this mornings post higher elevation and the further North the better the chance, i hope they are wrong we'll see.  

Edited November 12, 2024 by Nick2373

[IanT]

I see our resident Weakest Link contestants are already shouting "Bank"..!

[Geordiesnow]

 blizzard81 UKMO 12Z op did it aswell so it's definitely a possibility for sure. In all honesty even if it was slacker, I just don't think it would be cold enough for snowfall on its northern flank. Ideally you want such a feature to stay shallow and head southwards into Europe and hopefully the UK would be in slightly more colder air.

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON would likely be ok ,after 180 with a decent block still near to Greenland,but as others said we need some trough disruption.a dartboard low over the uk would do nothing the uk simply isn’t cold enough..a flow from the n/ne yes please!,we need it too fall into place between 144-168h we can’t always look at day 9/10

[northwestsnow]

 Nick2373

I'm disappointed with it ,it's nothing like EC 00Z as an example so I'd say that's not favourite .

I've had this t shirt many times ,brilliant NWP and meh Exeter updates,it rarely ends well.

That said maybe they are being Conservative, 12z runs will give us a bit of a clue but I'm a bit less optimistic so I'll keep quiet ,for now ..

[Nick2373]

 northwestsnow This is it mate, I've been pulled into the roller-coaster ride to many times when you watch trends you see patterns and I'm not seeing yet cold yes white out no. 

[johnholmes]

 Nick2373

This is the same as they predicted 24 hours ago!

[Penguin16]

 Nick2373 It’s the same as yesterday word for word. 

GFS looks good so far 

[Ali1977]

They won’t change the METO wording yet as there’s a huge swing in pattern - watch and waiting game.

So far the GFS looks good at T120

[Ali1977]

t132 looks very nice , cold air digging in fast 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Ali1977