Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs your being a bit naughty at 132

[Mike Poole]

First priority is to get the cold air sufficiently south, something the ICON just didn’t do.  

GFS looking much better in this regard, and is an improvement on the 6z run, here at T126 v 6z T132:

[Battleground Snow]

Lovely ukmo at 144.

Nice clean flow 

[TSNWK]

low south of GReenland is more prominent  on this run.. I'm twitching!  as it might draw the trough out to far west for most of us?

[Mike Poole]

 Battleground Snow Was just about to say exactly the same thing.  Very clean.  

[booferking]

The emotions in this place makes this place a car wreck at times lol 

Ps ukmo and gfs taste of some early winter

Edited November 12, 2024 by booferking

[DJ Fart]

Usual story in here: those that throw their toys out of their pram at every single run seem to also want to be able to say "told you so". I find it a bizarre stance on a weather forum where so many people are looking for something which escapes us for so many winters, especially when there will still be many twists and turns to come and many, many runs still to take place.

[TSNWK]

@Battleground Snow I know the drama.. I'm a phyiscally wreck after a decent chase...

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ah well I’ve seen worse!

[Allseasons-Si]

Not had chance to be on much today but the upgrades keep on coming and i think a fair few of us will see some wintry surprises in this cold spell

the UKMO is v good at 144...and very clean,the gfs not as clean but has a sliding low from the NW with upper's cold enough ahead of it,...hmmm!

Edited November 12, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Penguin16]

N England sweet spot

[TSNWK]

annoying it did blow up as feared.. locally annoying but wow just look at the NH profile.. Pretty Unique.

[Northwest NI]

 Penguin16 clearly North Ireland as well ?

[northwestsnow]

UKMO yes please 

GFS / ICON no thanks..

 TSNWK the block is too far west on GFS its carp.

[joggs]

 TSNWK yes, annoying. Threat of a west based set up on this run. Only a variation though.

[HarvSlugger]

 northwestsnow doesn't the gfs give you a dumping of snow?

[Penguin16]

Great Scott

[Met4Cast]

The GFS was much better early on in the run with the high further east but it just can't help but explode that low pressure system into a bowling ball low across the UK, can't be discounted but seems rather unrealistic. 

Lovely UKMO, much cleaner.

[Cirrusly Snowy]

As we draw nearer the time, these systems normally move southward when approaching an area of cold dense area..right, RIGHT?! 

[Neilsouth]

Are you guys n girls posting up dart board lows again? You know, the ones that have featured in every GFS since well GFS began? Ignore it if it does this! 

[Mcconnor8]

GEM with a low dropping in from Scandi area at T150

[Mike Poole]

GEM looking very promising at T150, with the cold nicely  south, and a couple of shallow features possibly incoming:

[nick sussex]

GFS 12 hrs run = SSO 

Suspicious Synoptic Outcome 

One for the cat litter tray ! 

A series of unlikely events occur that lead to a low blowing up over the UK .

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs once again probably setting up for a snow event days 9/10 slider incoming I think

[Allseasons-Si]

It's possible but not probable with the gfs developing a hurricane bomb of 955mb pressure,...no thanks.

would be interesting if that did happen but the gfs is nortorious for doing this,...it won't happen and it is further SE than the previous run.