Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Allseasons-Si]

 bluearmy It should be on YB blue

found it...

I will watch this after tea.

Edited November 12, 2024 by Allseasons-Si

[Jordan S]

Snow would be likely for a time in a few northern areas. from this GFS update, wind would be a rather big deal further south if this latest GFS where to be reality, whilst you can't discount it completely, it doesn't have much support and the overall evolution doesn't support this scenario.

A less deep low over the UK is more likely if the northerly solution plays out, but increasingly likely that a more south/southeast trajectory of this low in the vicinity of western UK will happen around 19-20th November with heights stronger to our west with any more rapid development of the low only higher once it moves into northwestern or western Europe, which while it may bring some potentially lighter wintry precipitation in a few areas of central southern UK on its northern/northwest flank, would bring much less strong winds and should be a relatively shallow feature whether it effects us or not, disturbances in the flow are one to watch for potential snow next week, mainly in the north.. unless a system moves into the south as we see some models showing.

Further ahead the Jetstream may "fire" up and bring us a very unsettled period beyond day 10, potential for a significant transitional snow event somewhere along the possible boundary but the snow risk may continue for Scotland thereafter even if things do turn milder further south.

Edited November 12, 2024 by Jordan S

[RJBingham]

 bluearmy

 

[bluearmy]

Gefs less cold at day 8 than 06z suite on uppers 

not a huge effect in surface temps at the same timescale 

Edited November 12, 2024 by bluearmy

[Notty]

 Allseasons-Si and a little channel low feature

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gefs 12z mean 180,I think the op overdoes that low,..mean not making much of it during the same time 

[Northern Sky]

Well that would be some temperature difference!

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy

It's going down to the wire isn't it ..

Twas ever thus ..

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmm

12Z control blows the low up too...

Edited November 12, 2024 by northwestsnow

[Catbrainz]

Just a quick observation the two biggest winter killers are the west based NAO- and the east based NAO+. East based NAO+ is what we have had the past 2 weeks basically a big Euro high (Examples of winter months ruined by east based NAO+ on the top of my head Dec 2015 was a very egregious case and id say winter 16/17 on the whole.). West based NAO- is another winter killer and is worse than east based NAO+ at least east based NAO+ tends to be pretty dry away from NW areas. Examples of winter months ruined by west based NAO- id say 2nd half of Dec 2022, Feb 2024 and winter 06/07. 

To sum it up if your gonna NAO+ keep it west based (Atlantic ridge with NWlys/Nlys) and if your gonna NAO- keep it east based!. 

[Polaris]

Alex Deacon on Meto deep dive: 

Sunday :

Icon : 40% = mostly dry nationwide 

ECM: 60% = Snow on Mountains and hills northern England northwards. 
Rain and mild air south 

Make of that as you will regarding next week.

[Ali1977]

 northwestsnow Control still looks good and stays cold by day 9 

[northwestsnow]

 Polaris sounds like they going with GFS to me ..

Sounds nothing like ECM ?

[AO-]

P20 is decent at day 9 with a serious dump of snow. But also here the Atlantic is starting to warm up.

[northwestsnow]

 Ali1977

Problem is the runs that blow the low up are just shortening the cold window.

I've a bit of foreboding about tonight's ECM ,we'll see  

[January Snowstorm]

That's a bitterly cold and snowy run from the UKMO. How could you complain about this, even earlier than 2010, extraordinary!!

[northwestsnow]

 January Snowstorm

Yes it's a great run..

I really want ec to follow it !

[Mcconnor8]

 northwestsnow Using Leeds as an example, the Op and Control both at the top of the pack for 850s when the low passes through, mean still rock solid

[Jackski4]

 northwestsnow GFS always blows up lows it’s a sure a thing as channel lows trending south, sheiky putting exclamation marks, certain members on here being miserable no reason, and Harvey mentioning a Pembrokeshire dangler atleast 25 times a day!

 

plenty of twists to come yet, I’m just happy for something cold/er next week not too excited for here because my old part of runcorn seems to miss snow completely for some strange unknown reason, but I hope you all do well!

[Sweatyman]

 January Snowstorm certain people seem just to look at GFS..

[northwestsnow]

 Mcconnor8

It's clearly very finely poised on this low.

Don't like ctr + op  both blowing it up tbh.

let's hope EC doesn't.. 

[HarvSlugger]

 Jackski4 3 times in a few days

[northwestsnow]

 Jackski4 I feel your pain.

Coastline of NW England is the proverbial snow desert..

[Jackski4]

 northwestsnow should with any luck be moving to NE Wales this time next year, so hopefully better luck in the mountains there. 
 

Anyway, ECM next!

[northwestsnow]

Erm, I have to leave the thread shortly as I like to watch the runs come out and now we know there is another site ahead of meteociel it takes away the fun for me personally,or despair