Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[That ECM]

Getting to the point where the mean is useful for the nhp but not much use for the low. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't like ctr + op  both blowing it up tbh

I wouldn’t be worrying too much about it nw,gefs mean wasn’t really interested in developing a deep low

[northwestsnow]

 That ECM

I'm damn sure ukmo is higher res so I'll be disappointed if GFS/ ICON trump it at 120 !

Crikey ,I just mentioned the T word I need to go and brush my teeth

Edited November 12, 2024 by northwestsnow

[Mcconnor8]

 northwestsnow Placing a ban on any ECM spoilers, only Meteociel charts allowed for it until 7PM

[That ECM]

 northwestsnow I can’t stop looking at it.

[Allseasons-Si]

Keep your eye's on up top

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow the low for Sunday is on ec (which is the 60%). 

Those percentages may change after the 12z runs 

there are many different lows on the models atm - hence the confusion 

 Lukesluckybunch mean won’t show a discreet system where there is so much uncertainty 

the spread shows it 

[bluearmy]

 Mcconnor8 you don’t want to know then ?

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy no,he wants to watch it come out on meteociel.

This is akin to a diplomatic crisis !!!

 

[bluearmy]

 northwestsnow I’ll keep shtum then - can’t speak for others though

To clarify that the run to day 15 is visible  

[HarvSlugger]

 bluearmy damnit I really want to see

[Mcconnor8]

 HarvSlugger look for yourself on WxCharts then haha

WXCharts v1.0.22

WXCHARTS.COM

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A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF...

 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[Met4Cast]

Absolutely solid set of ensembles from the 12z GEFS.

[TSNWK]

 bluearmy where please?

[AO-]

 Lukesluckybunch

Would suggest to have a look at all the different GFS members. It shows at how many different positions the low is projected. Impossible to have a reliable mean at that range with these uncertainties. 

I am surprised about the possibilities in how far South the cold actually gets (or not). Also the T850s range from -8 till 3 degrees Celsius (I take Manchester as a benchmark). Remarkable. Interesting times

Edited November 12, 2024 by AO-

[bluearmy]

 TSNWK mine is behind a paywall on weatherbell 

apparently it’s free on wx charts 

but take care when looking at different websites because it’s tough to compare run to run because of the varying colour coding on thickness

Edited November 12, 2024 by bluearmy

[Paul_1978]

 Allseasons-Si Everyone seems to post T+384 strat chats but nothing at a nearer time frame. Furthermore, I think @Met4Cast earlier suggested that any strat influences may not be welcome, but I may have misinterpreted this. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

mean won’t show a discreet system where there is so much uncertainty 

the spread shows it 

Ok blue,thanks a lot,all eyes on ECM!

Edited November 12, 2024 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Met4Cast]

 Paul_1978 

A strong stratospheric vortex coupling to the troposphere certainly wouldn't be welcome by most, but @Allseasons-Si posted a chart showing stratospheric warming, that certainly is welcome as it increases the likelihood of a weaker vortex.

[bluearmy]

 Paul_1978 good thinking Paul !  I can now see ec op strat out to day 15.  
 

wouldnt throw this out of bed at the back end of November !  Stretching due to n pacific strat ridge …… 

it’s stronger lower down so looks to be trop led.  We saw a lot of this last winter where the trop led ‘the dance’.

Edited November 12, 2024 by bluearmy

[AO-]

A quick search among GFS members at day 9. A small selection of some which I think are interesting. P27 is the high risk high reward type, but not shown.(also a deja vu for me)

[sheikhy]

Ecm out to 120 hours and dont wana jinx it again but northerly incoming earlier it seems!!!!big improvement so far!!

[That ECM]

 sheikhy I’ve no patience.

Edited November 12, 2024 by That ECM

[Mcconnor8]

 That ECM No more sharing! Rest of the run is Meteociel only!

It does seem to be on its own in blowing up a low directly over the UK at T120 though 

Edited November 12, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[Derecho]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

apparently it’s free on wx charts 

Hmmm I can't see it anywhere on wxcharts. It's updating at the same time as the other sites as far as I know.