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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

 Mike Poole I think cluster 2 will happen eventually but probably about 10 to 14 days premature. CFS week 4 is what I'm looking at for timing. Which ties in with the EC46.

wk3.wk4_20241101.z500.png

Edited by blizzard81
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but hate the cold
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
Posted

 KTtom i'll take that for the rest of winter please 😁

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

Early winter cold prospects are on tenterhooks. 

- Strong vortex 
- Weak/stalled MJO cycle over the east Indian Ocean 

AAM will likely plummet as a result of the re-setting & then stalling or very slow progression east of the MJO.

This has all the makings of a +NAO, mild & stormy pattern late November > December. Worth noting MJO forecasts are uncertain at such lead times.

IMG_1705.thumb.jpeg.2f9f7ef216c865dd8a67288e9debd9c8.jpegIMG_1706.thumb.jpeg.3b7880d3c72cf070a36f7e77601bd226.jpeg

It’s possible we will see a transitional period where high pressure is pulled north-west as AAM falls & the Atlantic trough relaxes, could provide a window of opportunity, this mornings GFS perhaps picking out that potential. 

Edited by Met4Cast
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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 Penguin16 Certainly an interesting point - tropical developments can sometimes inject the necessary energy to 'shake up' the system. But whether it will be beneficial for UK cold prospects is very uncertain at this range.

  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

 Penguin16 

I don't see any argument why that tropical system would shake things up. It dissolves within the reliable time frame. We need a big part of the Vortex to push south and get rid of the Euro high. The biggest risk of a pattern change is that we will be stuck in "zonality" for a few weeks. Let's hope I'm wrong, but the oulook is bad if you like winter.

 

 

 

GFSOPEU06_0_1.png

GFSOPEU06_24_1.png

GFSOPEU06_48_1.png

GFSOPEU06_72_1.png

Edited by AO-
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, Penguin16 said:

Might this change things?

image.thumb.png.1100d75f3f784259527bd3e28784027b.png

Looking at the MetO charts for Tuesday to compare against the NHC chart for Tuesday, it looks like this:

image.thumb.png.d4a1cd2a4b2ddb5abe2545ed2024c35f.png

Some remnants but not a lot.

By Weds the MetO show this:

image.thumb.png.fe30add8eaa01b36a1e39e5b6e57e7e8.png

No remnants of Patty to be seen and no immediate knock on effect to the Euro high. But, lets see...

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

General impression from Euro, GFS and GEM is that the mean high will retrograde over the next 10 days from Eastern Europe towards the U.K. 

Euro looks most likely to pull in cooler surface air, GFS and GEM just need to be a little further north west.

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
Posted

 Dorsetbred NOAA discussion has Patty as a borderline tropical/sub tropical system that is going to be very short lived courtesy of wind shear, so not likely bringing anything to the party in regards to shifting this huge euro high.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted

GFS12 is showing that the Eurohigh has no plans on moving whatsoever. At day 11 still going strong with an inversion type of weather over Northwestern Europe. In order to move it we need a "sharp" through over the Atlantic followed by a Southerly jet. That is not happening here.

GFSOPEU12_264_1.png

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

 AO- By day 16 the setup does flatten off. More seasonal conditions introduced over the top of the high, especially further north.

image.thumb.png.3300d60011c538a68c4ea4f08c5a01ec.pngimage.thumb.png.99b5c6bd1f9d9ac1291504f1489f42e5.png

image.thumb.png.736727b05768024f8ec257c2189f09a9.png

However, it is such a long way off that I really wouldn't put much faith in it. I'll have a look at some of the other output later, but at least for the moment the signal for a pattern change is not particularly strong or near enough in time to put much faith in it.

  • Like 3
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

17305724343133990025582458726910.thumb.png.b930542eb49efe246cc0ea6665e92caf.png

EC 144

its just horrid for Europe.

East ukraine chilly - the rest of us mild mild mild.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

 northwestsnow Horrid for cold but largely dry.  That’s a blessing with the rain in recent months.

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Huntingdonshire 10 m amsl
  • Location: Huntingdonshire 10 m amsl
Posted

The benign outlook continues.. 

gfs-newbury-gb-515n-15w.jpeg

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

Anyway, with all this in mind, here are tonight's EC clusters.

Days 3-4

Massive Euro high, mild and dry.

image.thumb.png.1b2fbc8d9c91da73fd7d92d775808219.png

Days 5-7

All four clusters are very similar, so unusually I'll just say mild and dry, winds generally from the SW, S or SE, and that covers all four.

The OP was in Cluster 2.

image.thumb.png.5fb61d3cf540d156a191bb227fe11e3a.png

Days 8-10

Cluster 1 (73%) has a large, intense area of high pressure over most of Europe, centred just east of the UK. Mild and dry, at times very mild.

Cluster 2 (18%) has the UK on the western edge of a large area of high pressure. Mild or very mild and dry, winds from the SW or S.

Cluster 3 (10%) starts mild and dry, but towards day 10 the high slowly retrogresses. Potentially cooler by day 10 with winds from the NW, especially for areas further north.

The OP was in Cluster 1.

image.thumb.png.eaf231f5ce4df46f3de3f8b5520d9b30.png

Days 11-15

Cluster 1 (25%) keeps the high pressure going. Briefly more seasonal at day 11 with a UK high, then the high ridges back east, turning things milder again.

Cluster 2 (22%) starts with high pressure and mild south-easterlies. By day 13, high pressure retrogresses just far enough that eastern areas may turn colder from the north or north-east. The high then ridges back over the UK.

Cluster 3 (20%) has high pressure centred more to the north of the UK, between Scotland and Iceland. Dependent on the detail, perhaps a little more seasonal, but not a true easterly or north-easterly, hence probably average rather than cold.

Cluster 4 (18%) keeps the UK on the western edge of an area of high pressure. Mild from the SW or S.

Cluster 5 (16%) keeps the ridging going from Iberia through the UK. Generally mild and dry.

image.thumb.png.cc880e548a1d48f049933c7541200683.png

Summary

Up to day 10, the consensus is continued mild or very mild weather, which is not at all surprising.

Beyond day 10, perhaps a signal for things to at least be less mild than up to day 10, but only really Cluster 2 offering much support for anything cold. The other clusters are all either fairly non-descript, or mild. Overall, not enough of a signal to call a pattern change.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

It will be interesting to see if we get that mid Atlantic ridge -

If nothing else it should help lower these awfully unwanted mild temps !

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

In the shorter range, perhaps worth having a look at UKV for surface conditions. Looking here at cloud cover, fog, overnight lows and daytime highs.

Cloud

A very cloudy high on the whole - a few breaks, but primarily in Scotland. For England and Wales, afternoon cloud breaks look to be fairly uncommon and fleeting.

image.thumb.png.3c327476fd0d757a7f46859c4697eb16.pngimage.thumb.png.12f74a0dec6995221232954465dae07d.pngimage.thumb.png.cde6daa8b9e62e675b19e7278682b50b.pngimage.thumb.png.b5c7bc658140562fe9b842bdecf2f7a9.pngimage.thumb.png.f7fd4500f44faff831b8c7a854aa36e8.png 

Fog

Looking at 9am each morning, the risk of fog looks fairly low the next few days. However, Wednesday and Thursday look to feature quite a lot of fog, which might be worth keeping an eye on.

image.thumb.png.d66e1a3d170127f68feb1c0e4b8f774c.pngimage.thumb.png.2988244f37f83c27b0606bc5f73728d3.pngimage.thumb.png.c549218334033279cd9bd610165b3167.pngimage.thumb.png.17dfd5d88518ecee2baf1cdabbd62752.pngimage.thumb.png.0470b2e72704601b013c109ae0f0037e.png

Minima

Looking at 9am each morning as a proxy for minima, it looks on the milder side for the next three days or so, with temperatures not dropping much below high single figures for most. Typically I would apply an adjustment and knock a couple of degrees off these values, as it may be cooler than shown here between 6am and 9am, given how late sunrise is. Later next week, becoming even milder by night, with double-digit minima more widespread.

image.thumb.png.c0fbf79ec8b4976fea26551a403c5b9d.pngimage.thumb.png.d003871e9b07814e24ef4ed841481a84.pngimage.thumb.png.adf7872ac5bee8c759db9e77b6ccca43.pngimage.thumb.png.4169306b7bd9f6e6c33afb58ef876062.pngimage.thumb.png.8a12d914a489eb7a5e1bd60ef7426c85.png

Maxima

Over the next three days, maxima generally only slightly above average. By the middle of next week, however, particularly where there are a few cloud breaks, temperatures look likely to reach the mid to upper teens more widely. 18C a good guess as to the absolute maximum, but slightly higher can't be ruled out with unusual Foehn and/or inversion effects.

image.thumb.png.42e00692d527e593c5e62578ee850e02.pngimage.thumb.png.a2b66c6d923c4ea8b4f7c649544adda3.pngimage.thumb.png.166c7e14cd415088d0824e96009203a4.pngimage.thumb.png.f5f2a6b72d68e8835da4634169d93a9c.pngimage.thumb.png.31f2b90b22f3781cbed37d9c3d39ee44.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)


 Very benign output.

It can be as mild as it likes in November - even with perfect synoptics, the chance of wintry weather in November is tiny.

Just disappointed that after waiting 18 months for a spell of high pressure dominated weather, we end up with a cloudy high.

I’m expecting no significant cold this winter as that seems to be the norm these days. If others adopt the same approach, it helps to manage expectations - see anything cold as a bonus!

Edited by Djdazzle
  • Like 8
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Signs as this morning that the movement around day 10 near the U.K May produce something cooler at the surface.

image.thumb.png.051b04b57cc51b0323564f57ab08e80e.png

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham
  • Location: Cheltenham
Posted

 northwestsnow plenty of folks are enjoying the very mild temperatures, which in a GW world are much more likely than cold in Autumn. Unusual setup at the moment but not unprecedented. Models want to continue the high pressure dominated pattern 

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

17305883511505107374483483223014.thumb.png.58db6d67d1cc67c588dba1c075d9e9c3.png

18z kinda following ec46 with the vortex shifted to NW Russia.

 

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