Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[northwestsnow]

Prefer meteo

[blizzard81]

 northwestsnow Good old Pub run lol 

I actually do think there's growing consensus that we'll get a blast from the north west last third of November.

[Mcconnor8]

GFS 0z going for a very strong area of high pressure in 9 days time, but still a relatively mild one, the high doesn't retrogress later on though and is a sinker. 

The pressure anomaly is a striking chart.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Although the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean does show the Atlantic Lows attempt to make a brief little visit towards North-Western areas of the UK during the early weekend next week (and so likely to offer something temporary a bit more wet), the High Pressure still seems eager to want to regain power over the whole of the UK after that. Not quite either pushing far enough to the West of the UK that I’m sure sone would like to drag some proper colder weather down from the North-West and North.

So while there may not be guarantees it will bring lots of sunshine (especially with how invasive this cloud monster is currently), I guess it will allow places to continue to dry out further reducing some of the flooding that occurred from last month. (Though admittedly some proper sunshine would be nice )

[AO-]

Morning all,

Even though the outlook of EC got "worse" for here overnight, it might as well be a good sign. There was a huge signal yesterday for the high to stay posted, but today that signal seems to have diminished. Probably a pattern change is on the way in the end of the second week after all. Having read the post by Cambrian, there is a significant "risk" of a zonal flow due to the coupling of the tPV and sTV. Then we are off for a couple of weeks with more seasonal weather. Let's await WYorksWeather discussion about the cluster analysis. 

Temperature (less colder options than yesterday in the long term which implies a smaller chance of hp "in the right place")

Wind direction probability

Precipitation

Edited November 3 by AO-

[Mcconnor8]

And the 6z brings us an Easterly, though too early for it to be super cold yet.

[TSNWK]

1st chase?

 

[northwestsnow]

6z decides to send lots of energy into the southern arm .

[AO-]

 Mcconnor8

That is not an easterly we want. No cold airmass whatsoever nearby. It may lead to frosty nights, but it is nothing like november 1998 (I realise that it was not as cold as it was here back then) 

Cherry picking from november '98. Notice the massive amount of cold over Europe back then. 

[AO-]

 northwestsnow

the ingredients are there. Southerly jet and blocking over Greenland. Definitely worth chasing. Let's hope it's gauning momentum. Would really like a november/december 2010 to happen again, but only colder this time. Do you remember what it was like in Britain?

[TSNWK]

 AO- beggers can't be choosers..

[WYorksWeather]

 AO- Thanks for this post. On the clusters, don't have time for a more detailed post from the 00z, but just a quick look at the day 8-10 and day 11-15 ranges.

The day 8-10 charts all still have the large high in place in some form, and all look mild. Perhaps Cluster 3 (18%) becoming a bit more seasonal with the high further west. That's still quite a small minority, though it did include the operational. Overall, not much chance of a change before day 10.

The day 11-15 charts have a lot more variation. Cluster 1 is mild initially with southerlies or south-westerlies but starts to flatten off or even become a bit north-westerly as we head up to day 15, as does Cluster 2 and Cluster 3. Nothing particularly cold with any of these though as it is only a westerly or north-westerly, and that only by day 15. Collectively those amount to about 65% of the ensemble.

The second group you could make is Clusters 4 and 5. Both of those feature a more notable retrogression, leading to what could be a significant push of cold air from the north or north-east. These two amount to 25% of the ensemble.

Cluster 6 is a bit on its own, with the UK high generally sticking around. Only 10% of the ensemble though.

Overall, I think still a bit of a waiting game. Probably the most likely outcome, just on the basis of reversion to the mean, is that we might see more average conditions taking over by around day 10. More in the way of rain with high pressure being eroded a little, and not quite as mild with more of a westerly / north-westerly. Too early to say with any confidence though.

[Jacob]

 Mcconnor8 Maybe it could push our stubborn high to the west to let some real cold in!

[Jacob]

This is very subtle but in the last 2 ECM runs, there's a trend of decreasing zonal winds

[bluearmy]

Referencing previous comments of ex TD’s coming into the Atlantic basin and possible effects, I’d advise watching ex typhoons in the pacific sector making their way into the n pacific area and driving WAA towards the pole on the other side of the NH as being more likely to bring more interesting patterns 

[chris888]

is this a sign of something colder ?

[AO-]

 chris888

Taking that chart literally, I think it is a little above average for western Europe (remember it is at 6 am). Scandinavia is cooling down and I consider that to be a positive note. The same holds for the eastern European continent. But I do believe we need a northerly, followed by an easterly for a prolonged period of cold. 

Edited November 3 by AO-

[blizzard81]

We're in a holding pattern for the next week or two obviously. Then a breakdown of sorts. Interesting that Exeter say that when it happens, there is more chance of unsettled weather in central and southern areas as opposed to the north. So that implies no sinker of the high which is interesting. A little retrogression instead maybe. Also interesting that they say they are unsure as to whether it stays unsettled or if the settled weather returns as we approach December. The updates have stated this for many days now so it's all interesting.

[summer blizzard]

Might at least feel chilly at the surface albeit the Euro and GEM are slower.

[northwestsnow]

GFS is sniffing something.

[AO-]

 northwestsnow

Let's hope it is the good stuff without any hallucinations

[northwestsnow]

Variation of a theme -

lets hope GFS is onto something ,certainly for those wanting cooler drier weather ( drizzle again today).

[AO-]

Certainly interesting with a huge plunge of cold up north and pressure rise to the east. Second half of november becoming more interesting or what

 

Edited November 3 by AO-

[northwestsnow]

 AO-

Block a little far west but there is a chase to be had

[Ali1977]

 northwestsnow The charts are definitely trying to send some heights north from about mid month - nice to see