Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Frigid]

GFS 6Z says yes to a 2005 redux. Please for once, let it materialise 

    

 

[AO-]

For the archive... T850 climatological deviation. Massive amount of cold air. Pv moving east with a west based NAO-/neutral. Not really enthusiastic about that, but maybe it is a sign for a cold(ish) second half of November. Let's see how this holds in the Eps. 

Edited November 4, 2024 by AO-

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gefs doesn’t quite make it to the level of the op run,but still manages to have the high centred to the west or northwest eventually,cold and dry could be on the cards at least.anyway it’s great to be back!

[IslaArklayblend]

 Frigid 1st chart shows what we used to call a "Polar Low", looking set to deepen as it plunges southeastwards.

If it was a few days earlier, fans of the "November 6th-13th Buchan Cold Spell " would be more satisfied.

Photos are for November 1969 - Loch Morlich - Cairngorm - Leadhills.

[LRD]

This is going to be a slow burner (or a slow freezer depending on how you look at it)

6z GFS op right at the bottom of the ensemble 850s pack. But it isn't an outlier and the control is also cold

[festivalking]

 TSNWK nah more like winter is over by 4.30

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a quick one before i depart for work

this is not a bad geo potential gefs mean

C U later guy's

[Don]

 Tim Bland Rubbish chart, misses me!!  

Seriously though, I thought at the end of last week it would be a while before we would even see FI teasers!

Edited November 4, 2024 by Don

[Chesil View]

Ah the first tease of the season. 

It's usually an 06z run that comes up with it too.

I shall treat is as a tease for now but would venture to say for old times sake that it was around about firework night the the charts first started teasing the potential  cold and snow in November2010..............

[Weatherman_93]

 Chesil View There is it. 2010 for the umpteenth time 

[Chesil View]

 Weatherman_93 but the 1st time I've mentioned it.  

[HarvSlugger]

Because I'm only 19 I've never had a proper snowfall that I can actually remember/had interest in weather for, I was too young for 2010,please give me one in my life

[Cambrian]

Can’t see it myself. If the charts were starting to resemble anything remotely like the beginning of the cold spell in late November 2010, like these from 25/11/ 2010…

 

…they’d be showing heights surging up into Greenland being aided by low pressure in the Atlantic off Newfoundland and enhanced by a polar high, little or nothing in the way of core heights on the Canadian side of the Arctic, with a strong vortex on the Siberian side directing a broad trough sharply elongated southwards into the heart of Europe, cold air flooding south into the UK and Ireland, and we’d need uppers of at least -6 right down over the middle of the country.

Compare all that with these charts from today’s 6z GFS op for day 15, 19/11/2024. See what I mea….?

 

Hmmm.

[MP-R]

 HarvSlugger Crikey I’ve been a member of this forum for as long as you’ve been born

[HarvSlugger]

 MP-R wow!!!

[Weatherman_93]

 Chesil View I know but it rears it head at this point every year it seems 

[Mike Poole]

 Cambrian 2010 redux, what could possibly go wrong?

[IslaArklayblend]

25th November 2005 - Linlithgow - 57m.

[Don]

 Mike Poole Erm, everything?!  

[TSNWK]

Oh! Thought I would see how gfs 12z was doing..

Not stated.. last winter it was rolling out  by 4pm

Has that changed?

[LRD]

 TSNWK Rolling out on Wetterzentrale. Up to 216hrs

[Wilxy]

 TSNWK  I was thinking time to view the 12z and noticed it wasn't updating on meteociel so went over to wetterzentrale and it was, funny thing is I usually use meteociel in autumn/winter and wetterzentrale in the spring/summer but that is just a preference I use 

[TSNWK]

Meteocile has rattled through to day 10 after a slow start 

Heights into Greenland delayed and west based..

Downgrade!

I'll get my coat

[AO-]

 TSNWK

perhaps most important is the absence of a "split" of the two lobes of the Vortex. Anyway a delay of any kind in this run. Nevertheless is everything similar up to day 10. So far, so good. Leave the details for later. Wouldn't be the first setback and certainly not the last...

This option has always been present in the ensemble of course.

Edited November 4, 2024 by AO-

[AO-]

Control seems a little better than the operational at 192. Let's see how the differences turn out in later frames