Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Allseasons-Si]

Just got in from work and the pub run is at it again,...with the height's into Greenland at 204 compared with the 12z at 210,there clearly is no consistancy with the trough out of Newfoundland(NE America) so until this is resolved then there is going to be more chopping and changing,...look at the difference...

we would need the 18z to be right to send more WAA up into Greenland so we will see how the mornings runs go in that respect.

[Allseasons-Si]

The cpc height anomalies are steadfast with the height's over the UK centered over Scotland so who will be correct,....the operational's or these anomalies,of course the op's/control go out futher so we will have to wait a couple more day's or so to see if these anomalies will change for the better with regards to height's pushing further north

hmmmm!,looking at the NAO/AO,...they both go into negative values mid month onwards,...a crumb there that the NAO is slowing down which is shown on some operational's in the ext'd range(up to day 16)

zonal though it is not for the foreseeable future so we will see how things pan out.

Edited November 4, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
forgot charts

[RJBingham]

Still showing a drift down towards mean, or slightly above, the OP having it's + day ten funny turn.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Nice ICON this morning at the end of the run by 180h,looks promising with heights pushing into greenland..on the ECM the shortwave to the south of Greenland,at 192 is a bit annoying otherwise it could be a clean push up,having said that the hp looks a bit rounded,my bet for the rest of the run will be a UK HP

Edited November 5, 2024 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[TSNWK]

 Lukesluckybunch ecm trying it has to be said with a push of heights into Greenland from day 8.

Good to see main vortex over siberia as well.

Models in general are definitely flirting with the idea of generating more interest for coldies end of next week 

Edited November 5, 2024 by TSNWK

[tight isobar]

Morning- or should I say “groundhog day”!  The now limpit High cell- working it’s dreary magic . However momentum showing slow progress … perhaps?!. … Certainly a pattern change growing moving forward!. As we gain ensemble spreads latter on.. Back for the elusive chase .. have a good day.

Edited November 5, 2024 by tight isobar

[Decemberof2010]

 tight isobar right where is the real tight isobar and his decipherings??? Your post while a great one is also too understandable!! As we gain…..

[AO-]

Morning al, 

Has anyone discussed the day 10-chart of EC, which is rather similar with yesterday's? It is a nice one with some openings for later. No disrupting shortwave.  

It gives at least a straw, but nothing more than that as the ensemble is worse at 2m than yesterday evening.  Meanwhile the midterm is rather chilly at night. 

[bluearmy]

All three ens suites have cooler than average temps by end week 2 with troughing to our east more notable and Atlantic heights rising in tandem.  
 

there are six eps clusters in the extended so not worth over analysis.  I’m pretty sure that this is the first time this season we’ve had all ens suites predicting cooler than average temps.  From small acorns ……..

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM / GFS continues with the high pressure theme for a possible 10 days some drop in temperatures  returning to normal perhaps.All the normal rain that we get seems to be targeted to the Mediterranean causing some disastrous flooding and sadly loss of life.I suppose what is on the mind of some of us,what happens when the high pressure breaks down.

[carinthian]

 AO-  Yes, growing interest by mid -month. Already there is quite a tight thermal gradient established along the jet from Arctic Scandinavia down into NW Russia currently aided by recent snowfalls. Hopefully we may get some radid developments along this front that can change the current stalemate across much of Europe. The models toying with the idea for a few days now,

C

[TSNWK]

06z i would imagine be pretty chilly at surface for southern half of UK at least from middle next week as we draw in gentle easterly waft from a cooling continent 

Day 10 onwards might be fun to look at.. with plenty of scope for our UK heights to edge northwest 

[Nick2373]

All I'm seeing from this set up is some rain around from the 17th onwards with temps just above average nothing cold yet, and perhaps a South North spilt from the 21st onward.

[AO-]

 Nick2373

Things may change quickly. Have a look at november 2010. December 1978. If the ingredients are there, it may take only 2-3 days for winter to arrive. Here is how the temperature development in De Bilt was back in 2010 (with a storm around the 11th). Also a pick from the synoptics back then.

 

 

[bluearmy]

 AO- late nov 2010 was quite well flagged on the 3 to 4 week forecasts (unless I’ve mixed my years up) 

[Penrith Snow]

 bluearmy Indeed it was, even the MetO had below average temperatures and wintry showers for late November in there MRF at the beginning of November. In the event they underestimated the coming cold spell.

[AO-]

 bluearmy

I don't know how the background drivers were back then. You're probably right. For me it was kind of a surprise. 

Atm I'm cought between two thoughts. The coupling of the stratosphere/troposphere vs the amplification over the pacific atm. We just have to wait and see. 

[Dominic Carey]

Some very interesting and exciting charts appearing in FI but I’m taking them as JFF at this range as like many of you I’ve been watching the weather models for many many years and have suffered disappointment when the forecast cold spells fail to materialise. If just like to say I love all type of extrame weather but especially heatwaves and cold and snow events, thank you to everyone on this forum for all your knowledge and detailed posts and here’s to a exciting season of model watching and hopefully some extreme and exciting weather.

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy  Penrith Snow

It had been showing mild on 30 dayer late Oct but much to my amazement (first winter in Saddleworth so excitement) it flipped on 5th Nov and consolidated and as we got nearer and suggesting below - well below average temps and started hinting (if not outright mentioning) possible significant snow possible even further West, i remember keeping staring at the screen thinking, 'are you sure this early?'

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy

Yes , although 6z GEFS have flipped milder again, the GEFS have been alternating between an Atlantic ridge and a flatter solution, ECM ens depict a cool NW flow.

[Met4Cast]

Fantastic example of MJO driven westerly wind bursts cutting through the La Niña Pacific trade winds as it progressed east. 

Trade winds are now strengthening once again further west than before which will serve to cool SST’s & potentially lead to the development of a more CP Nina, i.e future MJO cycled may find it difficult to progress east with any real amplitude, this could have significant impacts on our winter patterns.

Looking ahead - The MJO will return to the Indian Ocean and with this will come a drop in AAM, we should begin to see this boring high drift out into the Atlantic as the Atlantic trough relaxes & the pattern reverses, i.e low pressure over the UK/Scandi with the high to the west into the 2nd half of the month, NWP modelling is toying with this idea in the extended. 

How amplified the high gets is uncertain but i’m favouring a mid-lat block rather than a high lat block, so cooler, perhaps cooler but unlikely to “produce the goods. 

The sPV will undergo rapid intensification through this month and may begin to work against any high latitude blocking, especially given current forecasts suggesting the next MJO cycle will be weak in amplitude & struggle with eastwards progression. 

[Metwatch]

Looks like we are in the longest dry spell of the year which out of any time of the year had to happen in November this year, and with almost no sunshine. The GFS 00z 2 weeks out with no measurable rainfall for a lot of central and southern England below:

Driest November on record = 1945.

England & Wales had 17.0mm.

Central England had 14.0mm.

Southeast England had 7.3mm.

There is definitely the chance we could beat 1945, but it would depend on how much rainfall comes in after mid month as I can't see how a high centered around the UK could last for 4 weeks this time of year given background forcings are always changing and a strengthening SPV

Edited November 5, 2024 by Metwatch

[northwestsnow]

Looks like Exeter going with EC46 still.

Having nothing to do with retrogression -

[TSNWK]

 northwestsnow boo spoiler alert! For the 12z

 

[Jacob]

Any Greenland high is stopped by low pressure in the GFS 12z, preventing notable cold, however apart from a couple lows, the Atlantic gets filled with highs, maybe this could cause a sustained cold spell by blocking the Atlantic from pushing through if this verifies

edit: the highs disappeared but a Greenland high is forming again 

Edited November 5, 2024 by Jacob
I was wrong