Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[AO-]

 blizzard81

Don't know what went wrong. Phone somehow just downloaded the wrong chart fixed it now

 

 

[bluearmy]

Ens suites continue with the above av atlantic heights and sceuro trough (broadly speaking). At this time of year the heights to our se don’t have to be v low to show as a neg anomoly.  Early days yet on the detail (obviously) but we are seeing some consistency on below av temps as we head into the final third of November.  

[johnholmes]

 bluearmy

For the first time in many days the 8-14 500mb anomaly output also shows a differing type of chart to the last 7-10 days. A more generally westerly over much of the chart rather than the blocked pattern shown previously and still showing on the 6-10. 

Early days but but the next few outputs may show this as the expected outlook in the 14 day period.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[CoventryWeather]

Clusters in the extended seem a little more unsettled than previous ones - 2,5 and 6 all making more of the blocking and in turn causes a strong northerly. 

[AO-]

 CoventryWeather

definitely more uncertainty with 6 clusters today compared to the 2 of yesterday. 

[carinthian]

Morning all. The mid-month jet profile below shows a rather high latitude fragmented polar one and a weak Mid-lat jet. I think that would rather indicate  a less or slower mobile Atlantic flow towards the British Isles and Europe. Again models toy with some sort of North European trough developing close to the British Isles to eventually break the current impassable high. Sure looks like heading for some colder temps by mid-month. Still some way out but I am beginning to like the trend to a colder outlook ( if you like that of course )!

[AO-]

I can only find 1 Beauty in the EC EPS at day 15:

 

Edited November 6, 2024 by AO-

[Don]

 AO- Even that doesn't look cold either.

[AO-]

 Don

if it is the "best" option (I'm looking for Northeasterlies or Easterlies) it implies that it indeed is a rather poor ensemble. 

[TSNWK]

06z.  Looks chilly and unsettled around day 10 / 11.  

Interested to see where the atlantic heights land.  Toople or up

[TSNWK]

06z is chilly with heights stretch over to our north.

Uppers nothing special.. but would be cold enough for low single temps I would think with chance of own cold pool

[Mike Poole]

 TSNWK I think they will topple.  I just think with the MJO moving out of the favourable zone, there isn’t enough to sustain a high latitude block.  

[northwestsnow]

It was becoming clear a few days ago there wasn't going to be any High Latitude blocking.Hopefully we get a chilly anticyclone.

I'm more concerned about EC seasonal though.

Edited November 6, 2024 by northwestsnow

[festivalking]

 northwestsnow where can we read the EC seasonal forecast?

[northwestsnow]

 festivalking I think it's onthe winter thread .

It's grim - looks like EC seasonal going for CP Nina and destruction of any mjo assistance.

[TSNWK]

 Mike Poole good shout 

It did topple towards the end  on the positive there was further upstream amplification waves in the flow 

[throwoff]

 northwestsnow Very early days still though.

We have had a few 'cold' long ranges over recent years which have not developed.

[northwestsnow]

 throwoff forgive me I'm very down this morning.

You are correct it's very early days, I'll be content with a chilly anticyclone

 

[bluearmy]

If anyone was under the impression that my post about temps dropping below average was a portent of wintry nirvana before month end then you’re living in the wrong country

however, we need to start somewhere and not having a roaring +NAO and euro high as we trundle towards winter proper is a positive !

[HarvSlugger]

Remember last winter or the one before,had good backgrounds signals for cold and we didn't get it, so I'm going into this winter with less expectations for cold so I won't be disappointed like the last

[throwoff]

 northwestsnow After god knows how many years on NW now I have learned one lesson as clear as day. 

 

+10 days isn't worth worrying about in model terms. 

I have seen god knows how many incredible FI charts die on their bums, and equally have seen decent snow appear with less than 24 hours notice. 

Mind you, the thrill of the chase is what keeps us coming back!

[Scandinavian High.]

it’s a very dry picture at  moment even next week or so looks dry it’s interesting that we are in november coming  up to mid november and the Atlantic looks like it as not got its act together yet if we carry on with higher pressure as move deeper  towards winter it will be matter of time before we see high pressure move into an interesting position with colder weather to come.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You are correct it's very early days, I'll be content with a chilly anticyclone

Certainly better than now, however, like you I'm more concerned about further down the line!  All eyes on La Nina in the coming weeks!

[bluearmy]

not the worst set of day 14 eps members 

[northwestsnow]

 bluearmy

Yes a spell of something more seasonal.

Very much welcome as Christmas markets begin to open  

Really hope we can keep a lid on the TPV.