Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Met4Cast]

 Mike Poole

Agreed. 

The MJO is moving through the western hemisphere & will reset to the Indian Ocean, we're already seeing a marked fall in FT and this will drive a larger drop in AAM tendency when MT turns negative in the next week or two, this scrubbing of westerly momentum from the atmosphere is the precursor to our stubborn UK high pulling west out into the Atlantic, the lack of "ooomph" though suggests to be a mid-lat high rather than anything of the high latitude variety. 

Regardless though, I'll take anything over the current dross. 

[Anthony Burden]

Afternoon all, ECM  / GFS still favouring high pressure to remain dominant but a shift to better orientation allowing a colder air flow and dropping temperatures to below average,as GEFFS ensembles show nicely possible for Autumn frosts and fog to appear if the skies stay clear.More like it will November remain predominantly dry any thoughts on that subject.

[happyfoxyboy]

Hello, this is my first post on this forum! From Velp, The Netherlands 

 

GFS 12z has the Scandi high positioned differently. It looks a little more favourable for a potential colder setting. Curious to see how it goes in the second half of the run.

 

Also, i'm not sure if this is allowed or if its too much off-topic; but i have trouble uploading a profile picture. Is this because i just created the account or is there an known issue? I couldn't find any solution to it after searching for quite some time.

[danm]

 

[Blessed Weather]

10 minutes ago, happyfoxyboy said:

Also, i'm not sure if this is allowed or if its too much off-topic; but i have trouble uploading a profile picture. Is this because i just created the account or is there an known issue? I couldn't find any solution to it after searching for quite some time.

Welcome to the Netweather Community. New members need to have their first few posts approved by one of the Moderation team and during this time you won't be able to upload a profile picture. Once you have had a few posts approved all restrictions will be lifted.

[happyfoxyboy]

GFS 12z // Up to +240h it certainly doesn't look much colder, probably even milder compared to the previous run. But there's no real clear pattern on the Atlantic Ocean, no signs of any strong jet stream so far.

 

 Blessed Weather Thanks for clarifying! That makes sense .

[happyfoxyboy]

GFS 12z // Up to +312h it starts to look more interesting for coldies, a possible north(west)erly on the rise. The Euro High needs to move away though for it to hit Western Europe.

But this is far in FI, we'll have to look at the ensembles soon. Not the worst OP run though, i like where it is going.

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy Add the latest gfs op as well.

[bluearmy]

 blizzard81 gem went a little earlier 

it’s a sizeable cluster and it’s on the table 

nothing more for now 

[AO-]

If only... At the second attempt there's the full hit on GFS. However it's an odd lookin fellow, GFS12. Definitely chances, but way FI. Vortex is gaining strenght and that may as well be the key factor last third of the month. Let's hope not. 

[Jacob]

Amazing end to the run, if only it wasn’t in FI

[AO-]

Did someone say polar low? Just for fun.

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy Indeed......bless it lol.

[Notty]

Anyone have a link to the latest AI model outputs? What are the machine learning models looking like ?

[happyfoxyboy]

 Notty This is AIFS' (ECMWF) 06z run. Not too favorable for cold weather but not exceptionally mild either. The last chart is pretty terrible for coldies actually, look at that beast of a high over Russia! Completely blocks the door for continental cold and pushes it far, far east. Thankfully its far into FI.

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP AIFS 0.25°

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe génér&eacute par l'IA/Machine learning de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution proche de 0.25°

 

Edited November 6 by happyfoxyboy

[happyfoxyboy]

ECMWF 12z // Not favorable for coldies, not very mild either. Uppers from day 5 and onward mostly below freezing. To be honest it is kind of a messy run, with no clear pattern, but it does look like low pressure systems might be getting more and more influcence on our weather.

Here's the charts for days 7, 9 and 10. Note that on all charts there's a big high that's blocking the door for cold continental air. But the Atlantic is pretty much blocked off too. So it'll likely remain relatively mild without any excess highs/lows, although frosty nights might occur if under a clear sky and calm conditions.

      

Edited November 6 by happyfoxyboy

[LRD]

EC46 remains uninterested in any colder set up longer term. It is showing a potential coldish (but dry) pattern for the week after next but beyond that it's very uninspiring

Hints of higher than normal pressure into the very south of Greenland towards the end of the run but higher pressure anomalies stretch to us and to our south too. It could be signalling more of this non-descript tedium. A roaring, disturbed Atlantic is not suggested

[sheikhy]

 LRD any pics buddy?!!!

[LRD]

 sheikhy Sorry sheiky, I tried to copy and paste the link I use on here but it takes me to Netweather's page instead of ECMs. Dunno why that should happen

 

ECMWF - Charts.url

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

Here is the last frame of the 500 hpa anomaly charts (takes us to mid-Dec)

Edited November 6 by LRD

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD The best way usually for ECM charts to preserve the key at the bottom is to click on the top right of the chart and export it. That will give you options to save as an image, which you can then copy into a post. Otherwise if you copy the image as-is you lose the key and the period of time the chart covers.

As an example, click the button I've circled to get the option to export:

[LRD]

 WYorksWeather I initially just tried to copy and paste the link to the ECMWF charts landing page, so folk could browse at their leisure but when I did that it, weirdly, linked to Netweather's data page

Edit - oh, wait it did work

Edited November 6 by LRD

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD In that case, not entirely sure about that one! What I usually do for my posts is save the relevant charts when posting the EC46. Takes a little bit longer but I find it's easier to narrate the interpretation that way.

[LRD]

 WYorksWeather Yeah, it's weird. It did work but what I copied somehow created 2 links. One does take you to where I intended to direct sheiky but the other one didn't

[happyfoxyboy]

A (slight) weakening of the PV gains more support now according to the latest EC-46, compared to the past few days. Although there's still more members foreseeing a strengthening of the PV. This likely will play a crucial role for how December is going to start off, because thats usually when the PV really starts to show its forces on the troposphere.

 

Edited November 6 by happyfoxyboy

[Jacob]

 happyfoxyboy Also, the extreme strength of the PV in past runs has gradually into this, slightly above average version