Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[AO-]

A glance t the day 10 charts of the GFS members leaves me quite optimistic. A larger number of synoptically interesting members. A lot of them with northerlies or other promising signals. Here is my selection and you can pick yourself.

Edited November 7, 2024 by AO-

[Jacob]

 tight isobar Do you mean we could potentially get an omega block? If I'm correct could this last several weeks?

[northwestsnow]

For me personally mid Nov is good to go ..

Super short days and low solar input assist massively if one is fortunate to get a covering of snow.

And yes ,as depicted by GFS ,it absolutely can get cold enough ..

 

Edited November 7, 2024 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

We await the ECM with baited breath

[Northern Sky]

 northwestsnow Mid November to Jan the 1st is absolutely my favourite time of year for cold. I'd happily take Spring from Jan the 2nd if we could get some decent cold in this period. 

GFS cold right to the end of the run, it's just the small matter of getting the cold here in the first place.

[AO-]

 blizzard81

at least operation cooling down should be happening from the 18th onwards with temperatures below average. Special attention to Member 5

Edited November 7, 2024 by AO-

[Jacob]

GFS PO5 moves the entire PV to Siberia and Scandinavia! Obviously the chance of this verifying is extremely low since its only 1 member 

[HarvSlugger]

The latest gfs looks like November 2005 when I had loads of snow but was 7 months old, this cold spell is just meant to be

[Polaris]

 happyfoxyboy

Imagine that was T48 instead of Day14 

 

[TSNWK]

 AO- very interesting ensembles shorts ( 10 days)

Op and control together and middle of pack.. 

Good signal for coldies

[AO-]

 Jacob

At t240 there are quite some members moving the vortex towards Siberia. Anything beyond day 7(?) is FI. Models are moving a little back and forth with respect to the positioning of the high and the exact timeframe. The same holds for the vortex as there is always a risk of the Vortex gaining strength. Interesting times...

[sheikhy]

Ecm already different to gfs and ukmo at only 96 hours!!trough incoming from the east and colder over us earlier compared to to gfs and ukmo!!!!maybe thats why the gfs is such a big outlier around that same time frame in terms of 850s?!!!its a lot milder on the gfs!!!

[Jeremy Shockey]

850s trending much colder on GFS 12z after 16th Nov

[Mcconnor8]

 sheikhy wouldn't be a UK cold chase if all the models agreed would it? The GFS ensemble has lots of spread after day 4/5 so sure the ECM solution is well represented in the pack 

[AO-]

Did anyone say slider? Great chart, just for fun. Lots of snow. P14 day 14

 

[Frigid]

We're starting to see some very tantalising signs of something a lot colder in the second half. As @northwestsnowmentioned, mid November onwards is arguably the best time for some cold and snow. Even last year saw a pretty potent cold snap at the end of Nov into December. It's actually been quite a common occurrence to see late Nov, early Dec cold. 2019-23 all featured different variations, most notably 2022. Let's hope we experience a proper belter before the new year. Once February sets in, the strength and longevity of any cold spell diminishes.  

[That ECM]

Gfs is certainly a good watch but……. 

[sheikhy]

Ecmwf much flatter unfortunately at 240 hours!!!not saying its right but when the gfs is a massive outlier at just day 4 to 6 then just be cautious!!!!

[Dancerwithwings]

I’ll certainly have that in my diary a week Monday

[happyfoxyboy]

 That ECM Yeah there's still plenty of uncertainty regarding the position of high pressure. But after looking at the ensemble i am pretty happy where this is going to. But remember most of the cold charts are in FI so it needs to be taken with a grain of salt for several days.

Edited November 7, 2024 by happyfoxyboy

[Lukesluckybunch]

16 minutes ago, AO- said:

Did anyone say slider? Great chart, just for fun. Lots of snow. P14 day 14

Look at all that blocking out west,and to the northwest!

[TSNWK]

 sheikhy 240 im only at 168..

but agree you can even there its flatter upstream 

where are you getting early sight

[Gowon]

 sheikhy Where are you seeing the ECM 240 chart?

[WYorksWeather]

Not going to comment on the models tonight until the clusters are out later for the ECM, other than to say that there's certainly a bit more interest now. Will be interesting to look at the detail.

In the shorter range, perhaps useful to have a look at UKV.

Daytime temperatures look near average for the next few days.

Overnight lows change a bit more dramatically. Into early next week, definite signs of cooler air inbound. Increasing frost risks by day 5.

    

[northwestsnow]

 sheikhy you've seen 240