Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[northwestsnow]

[blizzard81]

It held out better than expected.

[Zero Visibility]

 Met4Cast Let's hope EC ain't giving us a cheeky little finger 

[TSNWK]

 Met4Cast yep.. those lows over northern Canada at day 9 worked a treat

I was quietly confident that there was enough there to counter a topple.. 

Higj wire Delicate balancing act if we want to sustain the cold..

But a great position to be in the game 

[That ECM]

Interesting that if the block was between gfs and ecm then it would be superb.

[blizzard81]

Has anybody told family and friends yet?

[HarvSlugger]

 Zero Visibility ofc no snow cover here

If I recall past few winters it was always the gfs giving the cold snowy charts far out which ended up never happening .currently it is the ECM showing it which means it's happening

[Mcconnor8]

 blizzard81 Given the GEM, GFS and ICON Operational runs were all poor we are no where near that stage yet haha

Will be interesting to see what the ECM AIFS 12z looks like given it has been verifying better than the standard ECM this year.

Edited November 8, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[Zero Visibility]

 HarvSlugger These systems always trend west closer to the timeframe 

[LRD]

That is a ghostly looking polar profile. Will hopefully scare away mild weather until mid/late Feb

 

 

[blizzard81]

 Mcconnor8 Oh of course....It was very tongue in cheek

[Dark Horse]

 blizzard81 fingers been burnt too many times for them to believe me! now I wait until t24 hrs  

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm

bbc app flipped very wet locally from 17th ..lots of rain symbols.

[That ECM]

 northwestsnow bbc? behave you know better than that.

[Ali1977]

That’s Nov 2010 type cold heading in, a very rare thing in November - shame it’s day 10 but heh ho ️ 

[northwestsnow]

 That ECM

I believe they are derived from mogreps so while not taking them literally they can give some insight..

[Mcconnor8]

 northwestsnow Mogreps doesn't run out that far though, I think they just use raw data from the ECM, though I wouldn't pay any attention to them especially that far out 

[Cloud 10]

ECM at it again?

 

 

[Frosty.]

Well, I’ve almost died of boredom given the stagnant nature of the current weather with about 20 minutes of sunshine in the last 11 days for some areas!…but changes are afoot …more in the way of sunshine is on the way once weak Atlantic fronts clear east during the weekend followed by high pressure building in again but the reason for my post is what happens around mid month, the GEFS 12z mean indicates a colder more unsettled period, and even if the colder air fails, it looks like a more unsettled phase so at least it wouldn’t be perpetual anticyclonic gloom…roll on winter..tick tock!!  …ps.. nice ECM !!  

Edited November 8, 2024 by Frosty.

[The Northern Ramper]

 Zero Visibility

I can promise you now, that doesn’t verify.

 

My location is not that lucky.

[Mcconnor8]

Would be a decent snow event on the AI 12z run as well, the synoptic pattern is more of a toppler though so not much longevity to it.

[northwestsnow]

Promising ec 46 tonight...

Real split developing strat wise.

I mean split as in some members dropping zonal winds.

Edited November 8, 2024 by northwestsnow

[LRD]

These zonal wind graphs are trending downwards everyday it seems. Still nothing too exciting but the trend is your friend

The pressure and precip anomaly charts on tonight's EC46 are not great, though

[Mike Poole]

I’ve been keeping score of the day 8-10 prospects on the clusters the last 4 runs or so, here’s tonight’s 12z T192-T240:

Cluster 1 (13 members) has a quicker toppler, but the other 3 look primed for a northerly by day 9, clusters 2 and 4 (25 members) look potent, cluster 3 is not too bad (13 members), so that’s about 75% in favour of something cold - for how long open to question, but - the extended T264+ shows this:

 

Cluster 2 here is very interesting, showing development of a more sustained block over Greenland, will be interested to look at the individual members to see how much support for this there is. 

Zonal winds from the ECM 46:

Similar to yesterday, the mean pretty much bang on climatology there, but I think it is worth looking for the trend away from a fast spinning vortex to see if it continues.  

 

[Tim Bland]

Chance of snow for almost everyone at the end of the latest ECM ️