Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Mike Poole]

 blizzard81 Yep.  After all that messing around, the block ends up being propped up by the low to the south, here T270:

[matty40s]

 Mike Poole

Mike, nothing adds up any more.

The models seem blind, new algorithms needed, and what data is good?

NHC struggling with tracks and intensity, many Euro models not seeing repeat DANA until it's actually happening.

It's not normal, there is no normal anymore?

[WYorksWeather]

Yep, certainly takes the long way round but gets us there. Cold enough for snow by day 12 almost anywhere.

Just have to wait and see. The problem with delays is of course it introduces the risk of something getting in the way beforehand. But for now, reason for some optimism.

[WYorksWeather]

Now well above average on all metrics.

A hyperactive season starts at 160 ACE - we might well get there now.

[Ball Lightning]

 WYorksWeather Very very unusual chart for November in fact with those 850's the snow showers would be piling in to east Anglia from warmer than average North Sea SST's, and that doesn't even consider the fact this would be November not March so the convection would be very deep indeed because there's been almost no time for the sea to cool off after the summer. Strong winds heavy snow thunder and lightning. Wouldn't fancy my chances inland though.

[That ECM]

This mornings T168 ukmo , gfs and last evenings ecm. Until this is resolved anything past this is pointless for me. Hoping ecm follows ukmo wrt block. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

What a lovely chart,i think somthing like this may be the way forward,ECM has been playing around with this idea for a few days now!gfs op run looks all over place to me

[That ECM]

T144 and ecm says no to gfs.

Edited November 9, 2024 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

19 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 and ecm says no to gfs

No shortwave,fascinating to see how this pans out,could be a great run!

[TSNWK]

this will work 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

will

We have that trigger low,at day 9 around Iceland ,hopefully it moves southeast,but already good before this!

[seabreeze86]

Snow incoming from the north west on the ECM . Consistent but consistently right or wrong ? 

[KTtom]

 seabreeze86 Not sure where you get the snow from..uppers far too warm away from NE Scotland...the low actually has warmer uppers associated with it.

[TSNWK]

Great pattern at hemisphere level. Vortex is way out eastern Siberia  and heights into Greenland..

slightly disappointed with 240 although it’s all relatively good I want the low to north west to have cleared through us.quicker.. hope it’s not one of those that linger and flush out over us.

Edited November 9, 2024 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Not sure where you get the snow from..uppers far too warm away from NE Scotland...the low actually has warmer uppers associated with it.

There was a lot of westward movement with the low,which bought milder air into the mix,ideally we needed it to move southeast and engage with the trough over scandi

[That ECM]

 TSNWK

Great pattern at hemisphere level. That’ll do for now.

[seabreeze86]

 KTtom  Just from the raw data but to far away to worry about 

[RJBingham]

A flake or two? 10 days away, probably not.

[Shaunado]

 TSNWK Having a high right over the pole shows promise !

[sheikhy]

Beautiful ecm mean if cold and potential snow is what you like!atlantic ridge and trough over and to the east of us!!

[blizzard81]

 sheikhy Indeed. The ECM this morning has doubled down on the potential cold spell. Means from days 8 - 10 attached.

[blizzard81]

 Lukesluckybunch That's a fab chart

[sheikhy]

 blizzard81 the way i see it is get that annoying shortwave sorted at 168 hours on the gfs and its game on!!i wana see that shortwave absorbed either into the low in the eastern usa or travel further south and east towards us without blowing up!!!if that happens we should then get a lovely ridge from the atlantic into greenland!!

[TSNWK]

Great vibe to the thread at start of this season. Plenty of friendly names back for another year  no egos posters  we all seem to be getting along fine  and just enjoying the thread..

@nick sussexmissing.. hopefully back to discuss powder snow and ice days soon.

@sheikhywe await the !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!s

 

Edited November 9, 2024 by TSNWK

[HarvSlugger]

 hailcore the SST are still colder than  average to the north though which will help us for cold