Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM mean very good 

[Mike Poole]

This morning’s ECM clusters, key timeframe T192-T240:

Looking much more consistent now on the day 9-10 timescale, cluster 1,2,3 all showing -NAO and solid block centred south Greenland, cluster 3 perhaps the strongest.  That accounts for 35 of the members.  The other two clusters are not a million miles away either, so a well-placed block of some sort seems now the form horse.  As to longevity, here’s the T264+:

Cluster 1 shows some persistence of the pattern (19 members - not to be sneezed at).  Cluster 3 also retains blocking at high latitude but it is messier.  The other two revert to +NAO.

Of the last 5 cluster analyses, I think each has been an upgrade on the last.

[blizzard81]

 sheikhy yep, hopefully we will see a big climdown from the GFS today .

[blizzard81]

 TSNWK Don't forget Mattwolves.... Thought he would be back by now.

[HarvSlugger]

At least you got me here all year round no matter the weather

[Frosty.]

Some nice charts for coldies again from the ECM, a very early taste of winter from this! ….fingers crossed …in the meantime, an end to the seemingly never ending anticyclonic gloom is within sight, much brighter weather with sunny spells is on the way as a clearer drier airmass spreads across the u k behind weakening Atlantic fronts with high pressure again building in… ️ 

[Midlands Ice Age]

You all know me....

But until the GFS removes the low to the south west of Greenland, for me the game is only a beautiful (ECM) dream.

Please remember that GFS's one area it tends to be correct (for the Atlantic at any rate)  is around Newfoundland. 

Also it'll probably remove it the next run, but re-instate it the next!!! Great at pinball the GFS. 

MIA

Edited November 9, 2024 by Midlands Ice Age

[Cambrian]

The speculations we aired at the beginning of the month (when the ECM weekly mean anomalies for temperature showed this for the 11th-18th and 18th-25th)…

 

…of retrogression of the high pressure allowing colder air to eventually work its way through Europe - 0z ECM op for day 4…

 

…followed by the lining up of a northerly episode being orchestrated by a dominant lobe of the PV over Arctic Siberia extending a trough through Scandinavia - 0z ECM op for day 9…

 

…don’t look half as speculative now! 

And the latest equivalent ECM weekly mean anomalies for the same two weeks, now this coming week and the next one?

 

Not quite “in the bag” yet, but fair play, model thread, fair play. 

[nick sussex]

Howdie all and welcome to new members and all old timers .

I've come out of my hibernation at just the right time as we have an early season stand off between the GFS and ECM .

So good to see in an ever changing world some things remain constant ! 

Let's see what the GFS 06hrs makes of that day 6 into 7 timeframe in the west Atlantic.

 

[Murray991]

As good a mean I have seen for my location since January. Don’t expect any ️ unless upgrades come. But nice to get some cold in early

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06 hrs run has already got rid of that shortwave to the west at T84 hrs . So changes already taking place .

It can't evolve now like the earlier 00hrs run . Lets see what it pulls out of its box of tricks !

Edited November 9, 2024 by nick sussex

[Jacob]

The PV is starting to most east earlier than the 0z at 126h

[sheikhy]

@blizzard81looks like my scenario of the shortwave backing further west into the eastern states could be about to happen on gfs 06z!!lets see.....

[TSNWK]

Yep heights now able to climb into Greenland from Atlantic at pesky low has disappeared.. would expect a ecm evolution now..  

but gfs can make fools of us all..

Primed………

[Jacob]

On the 6z GFS the PV lobe in Scandinavia/Siberia is more strong and further north

[happyfoxyboy]

Day 6 heights building up towards Greenland, throughing starts to form on the continent. Interesting and from the looks its already way better than the 00z run!

[Jacob]

Greenland looks much cleaner at 174h

The Greenland high is progressing further NW, hopefully it doesn't turn too west based otherwise we would just end up with cold rain 

[happyfoxyboy]

180h such a beauty in the making.. wow!

[TSNWK]

Text book so far

[Jacob]

luckily the lows off the USA is stopping the high from becoming too west based, looks great right now! 

[sheikhy]

Just gorgeous!!exactly what i mentioned earlier in that regards to that annoying shortwave heading a bit further west into the states or just bugger off south east as quick as possible!!!!its headed west nicely and opened the doors for massive heights rises into greenland!!if only this was the last of the changes!!

[Mike Poole]

 nick sussex Welcome back, Nick!

Yes, changes very early on compared to the 0z, a case of spot the difference T90 v T96 on 0z:

Going to be a good run this, very clean T192:

[TSNWK]

incoming……..

[sheikhy]

Yup and shortwave early on at 96 hours which is in a completely different position as the 00z!!!gona be a long few days ahead potentially!

[Jacob]

If a cold spell like this pulls off, does it put us in a good position for cold up until mid-winter? If so, why since couldn't the PV just relocate in Canada and Greenland and give us zonal weather again?