Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

Even a watered down version of what the 6z was showing would do,let’s hope we get somthing next week more especially approaching next weekend,currently ECM looking good and has been consistent for a few days now

[damianslaw]

Not commented in the model thread for a while for various reasons, one being the very stagnant synoptical set up we've been locked in for near on 2 weeks.

Alas the models are closing in on a significant pattern change, the current benign gloom fested anticyclone is about to get a good kick westwards and into the new week a far cleaner brighter airstream will take hold. Many will see there first hour or more of sunshine this month! 

Sunnier chillier air for all with likelihood of frost at times will make for a late crisp autumnal feel. It remains a dry set up, indeed turning into a very dry first half of November. Light rain from the NW overnight and through tomorrow will dampen things. One positive of the high pressure has been a welcome drying out for the south.

Looking further ahead, ECM showing a classic retrogressive high scenario, with a potent cold northerly in around 8-10 days time, outside reliable. GFS playing around with various scenarios.

What appears almost a certainty is a return to clearer colder conditions through middle of the month, a rapid cooling in Europe. 

The key influential factor at play may well be attributable to the MJO passage from 6 to 1.. but the affect later than otherwise anticipated, i.e. heights have held sway in situ longer than expected, but the shift to an atlantic then possible greenland high fits well with expected impacts..

Whether we are about to see a notable early season cold spell of longevity, or a short cold snap, or just something nearer average remains to be seen. Interesting to see the PV setting up on the siberian side which in tandem with some low heights n canada will allow a window for heights to push into Greenland, but as we know getting a clean execution is tricky, shortwaves can and often appear at short notice to our NW.

Model watching has become interesting again...

Edited November 9, 2024 by damianslaw

[booferking]

When did ECM 6z go out to the extended on meteociel ? 

Reload city

[northwestsnow]

Crikey first chase is ON !!

ALREADY

[blizzard81]

 booferking Is that the AI version? Can't find that on meteociel?

[WYorksWeather]

 blizzard81  booferking It's the AI model, which always runs to T+360.

Link here:

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP AIFS 0.25°

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe génér&eacute par l'IA/Machine learning de ECMWF CEP en Open-Data avec une résolution proche de 0.25°

Usually runs a couple of hours after the main model.

[Mcconnor8]

 WYorksWeather Yeah the AIFS loads at 2 & 8 AM/PM, strange as it apparently only takes a few minutes to actually process so you'd think it could load almost immediately after initialisation.

[Mike Poole]

 northwestsnow It is, and we’re now right up to the tricky bit, will these charts at day 9+ count down, will they get watered down, or will they get upgraded?  Damp squib, cold snap, or cold spell?  All potentially on the table at the moment, let’s see what the 12z runs bring in an hour or two…

[Kasim Awan]

The current tendency for lower pressure over Iberia may significantly assist the establishment of an Atlantic / Iceland high.

[AO-]

 blizzard81

It is and it is almost a copy of the GFS06. Perfect examle of how a winterspell should start. 

[Froze were the Days]

ECM showing the usual cyclogenesis forming near Greenland in the cold Arctic flow and cutting off real cold uppers and a sinking  low pressure close to the UK (a feature of recent years when northerlies become present). As for the GFS 06z - the usual rubbish that can go in the bin!

[Duane S.]

Ok, I was going to wait another week or so, but the 06z has finally got me out of my non winter slumber. There have been growing hints that the 3rd week of November (approx) could be a bit wintery. Certainly worthwhile keeping an eye on progress over the next week or so, and ties in with various background states that there is at least some genuine potential here. Yes the ‘P’ word, but without it we will have zilch.

Why do I fall for these November chases every year! *sigh* Last November was a fairly good one. But it was more great Synoptics, but the potential not fulfilled. Then every once in a blue moon, something decent comes along, 2009 / 10 (even earlier in 2008). We can but hope…

[Frosty.]

 

Well guys, until the 12z I’m in ecstasy right now…are other coldies feeling the same way?…anyway, until the Gfs 12z op…I’m deliriously happy! ..even Donald trump is happy.. joke !  

 

[Allseasons-Si]

First out of the blocks is the ICON and looks primed here at 120 with better height's into W Greenland

12z 120 v's 00z 126...

also notice the Arctic high is more prominant and i wonder if there will be a link up between that and the Atlantic height's further down the line.

welcome back @Frosty. 

just need @MATTWOLVES 3 to emerge out of hibernation now,...i hope he's OK.

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si

[Lukesluckybunch]

Icon appears to be setting up almost perfectly for the cold plunge from the north!great start to the 12z

[January Snowstorm]

Icon out first this evening and it's a major upgrade!!

[blizzard81]

 January Snowstorm It really is an upgrade. Very positive start to the evening viewing.

Happy ending. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Icon out first this evening and it's a major upgrade!

Azores high nowhere to be seen!just colder day by day from here

[Kasim Awan]

 January Snowstorm Excellent over Iberia with the lower heights. Will help prevent the low from stagnating in the East Atlantic and producing a sw wind in the UK, as has been the issue for the past few years.

[blizzard81]

This seems like the most exciting start to our favourite season on here for many a year. Just need to see it count down nicely now.

[bluearmy]

Anyone noticed the ecm parallel op now showing on meteociel when it runs ?

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes the ICON isn't bad is it and i would like to see it past 180 as i am sure it would get colder than shown from there,...

my only niggle is that there isn't much room for error so it has to be a direct hit,...more model drama to unfold yet i think.

Oh and welcome back @nick sussex

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si

[nick sussex]

Any blocking needs to be sufficiently east and strong to pull a clean flow into the UK.

Better to lose a bit of instability and get a more east based neg NAO. Low pressure ideally located to the ene of the UK .

We don't want the coldest air spilling to the west of the UK.

Regardless it's nice to see some decent cold potential after this weather void . It's been grim down here with just blanket grey skies.

Hopefully I might be able to squeeze some snow in before I head off to Cyprus ! 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z gfs looks very clean if you look at the isobars to the north where i have drawn with a white arrow

compared to the 06z,...should be a snotrer of a run this and the 06z wasn't too shabby either

yup looking v crisp...

[Ali1977]

GFS is speeding things up, next Friday isn’t FI and this looks great!  
 

UKMO not getting those heights into Greenland though.