Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[happyfoxyboy]

GFS 12z starts off absolutely beautiful!! High is even stronger than its precedessor aswell as the low. Curious to see the followup! ICON 12z was already great too.. big evening coming up in weather land!?

[WYorksWeather]

 bluearmy Yep, test data now available. Will be interesting to see how it performs relative to the other charts. Quite different to the 'regular' 00z at day 10.

[Allseasons-Si]

 Ali1977 I am sure it will look better by 168 in a bit,you can see things are on the move,just a bit slower than the gfs

the GEM so far looks better than this morning too...

the gfs is in a hurry to get the cold in sooner than the previous run,...great output so far this afternoon.

 

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
Added charts

[AO-]

At 192 GFS looks great. After Icon12, this is the next great run. Curious to see what will follow. Almost within the "reliable" timeframe now. Let the games begjin. 

Note the low Heights over Iberia almost a perfect example of how it's oughta be

Edited November 9, 2024 by AO-

[Mike Poole]

GFS very good, GEM looks excellent too - this morning’s run from the GEM was not singing from the right hymn sheet at all so good to see it fall in line, here T180:

[AO-]

Some serious chances of snow as well at 216. Low uppers 

[Allseasons-Si]

 Mike Poole Yes a big upgrade from the GEM Mike,just need the UKMO 168 to have the same evolution but i am sure it will as it looks primed at 144 just a bit slower,we need the ECM to keep in with the same theme as it has done.

Edit,...UKMO 168

^^ it would get there but again a slower evolution to the rest of the 12z suits,...all is still not lost.

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Kasim Awan]

By 192hours on gfs12z snow accumulating at lower levels greater than 25 miles inland in heavy showers / at night. Though warm air incursion from the North Sea will make any accumulations below 300m temporary unless timed in evening. 

[AO-]

Models are allmost unanymous. Look at the similarities at t240. 

I can't remember seeing this at a ten day range...

Edited November 9, 2024 by AO-

[Nick123]

 Kasim Awan nice to see you bro, your knowledge and balance is always a great help to us newbies.

[Allseasons-Si]

Spot the gefs mean difference at 132!!!

[AO-]

There is the toppler. Strange feature GFS comes up with as a party pooper. Soon a zonal flow?

[Nick123]

Well here we officially go by the looks of things. Our first chase... once (many) bitten, twice (more than) shy? Or could this be the start of an epic season?

[HarvSlugger]

 Kasim Awan i remember last winter about you mentioning Iberian heights alot.messing our cold spells up, good to see that U haven't mentioned them, that's a good sign

[Nick123]

 AO- can I ask how that is a toppler please? To my untrained eye it looks like heights are trying to get into Greenland which is what we want? Thanks

[Allseasons-Si]

 AO- Hi

We need to get the cold plunge nailed on first before worrying about the height's toppling in fl

 

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[AO-]

 Nick123

The tiny shortwave is preventing the hp to expand north. Soon more will follow:

Note the direction of the shortwaves at the souteast of Greenland wanting to go east.

[Nick123]

 AO- ah I see! Damn little shortwaves. Hopefully that's not what happens!! Thanks for getting back mate

[AO-]

 Allseasons-Si

Of course. These are details. Couldn't agree more. Nevertheless, given the synoptic pattern it was a strange feature popping up suddenly.  

The overall pattern couldn't have been better at the start of the fun season.

[Allseasons-Si]

Control a big upgrade as well as the mean at 168...

[seabreeze86]

Nice improvement on the GEFS 

12z and 6z 

Will be some brilliant ensembles 

[Nick123]

 Allseasons-Si to see a prolonged cold spell am i right in think the further the push into Greenland with the heights the better (on the means)?

[Allseasons-Si]

 Nick123 Yes

but too far NW can also skupper a cold snap/spell too as this would be a west based -NAO and all the cold would miss the UK to the NW on the southern flank of the high into the US,seen it a few times but cannot remember the year/s.

[Allseasons-Si]

A happy bunch of gefs ens dropping off there....

Mean at 180,looking good so far.

[That ECM]

 Allseasons-Si as you say this is a big positive. No point worrying about detail. Ukmo needs to come to the party in the morning. It’s not awful but it can try a lot harder.