Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Dennis]

Good evening to all from Norway

Winter ? No way for UK  (a little joke here ) I realy hope all have the first winterfun of season winter2425

 

GFS6z today was bullseye 

 

 

Edited November 9, 2024 by Dennis

[That ECM]

Gefs stuck?

[Allseasons-Si]

 That ECM It was,...just got going again now.

[HarvSlugger]

 Allseasons-Si surely Me being in west Wales would help if that happened

[Decemberof2010]

P19 is a bit nippy at 192

 

[Djdazzle]

Nothing to get excited about yet. None of the good output is in the reliable and the UKMO seems to differ from GFS / ICON.

Nice trends - but way too early to get excited. Stay very grounded folks.

A very positive thing is the low heights over Iberia. Hopefully the Azores High will be less of an influence this winter.

 

Edited November 9, 2024 by Djdazzle

[AO-]

The ENS upgraded compared to the 06. That is a start, but probably will go back and forth the next few suites. Let's await the EC12. 

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nothing to get excited about yet. None of the good output is in the reliable and the UKMO seems to differ from GFS / ICON.

UKMO only runs till 168 and that is where the fun starts. Agree that it is beyond the reliable, but there seems to be a lot of agreement amongst the other models. 

Edited November 9, 2024 by AO-

[sheikhy]

Another early heads up!!!ecm looks pretty good out to 240 hours!!!!!maybe even better than the gfs!!!!lovely atlantic greenland ridge from 144 hour onwards!!

[Mike Poole]

 sheikhy Going to be a long winter if you keep telling us whodunnit!  

Seriously though, the frame by frame ECM operational has always been model watching prime time, but the writing is on the wall for that, I’m sure it is only a matter of time before they stop running it and replace it fully with the ensembles control run, with which it is effectively identical now anyway.  

[Cambrian]

The 12z GEFS provides further encouragement. 

The curl and snap in the jet stream over the western United States at day 8 allows the development of that inflected trough, bent back and consequently pushed a long way south, mirrored by another trough digging a long way southeast through Hudson Bay to off the eastern seaboard. 

  

It is the heights being pumped north from the second trough that are providing a welcoming home for our retrogressing high. This coinciding with the polar high consolidates the split NH profile, so when the trough drops south into northwest Europe it has the full backing of the Siberian lobe of the PV, and forces a single trough running all the way from Siberia to the Azores by day 9. 

So if this happens, for a change, we’re kind of getting lucky. It’s the combination of the Pacific wave break and the polar high then preventing too much energy from coming over the top that’s giving us the chance of the northerly blast, more direct involvement of the Siberian PV, and perhaps preventing a quick toppler too, as the base of the trough is held back over the western Atlantic, reinforcing the amplification. 

Better still, the trough pattern (Alaska, Hudson Bay, Scandinavia) remains the same all the way through to day 14 and beyond, even when we likely lose the polar high and the core PV returns to reside more centrally over the pole. The heights over Siberia itself and over Arctic Canada are maintaining the squeeze and alignment of the main polar troughing from Alaska to Scandinavia. 

 

No sign of the core PV moving into Greenland, and with low heights maintained over much of Europe and around the Azores, the next couple of weeks are looking very interesting to say the least!

[That ECM]

 sheikhy It’s like watching a recorded football match and someone running in and saying they win 2-1. Mike beat me.

Edited November 9, 2024 by That ECM

[RJBingham]

Cool spell, still on, couple of degrees below average.

[Allseasons-Si]

May as well throw in the JMA too

the EC doesn't follow the UKMO which is a bonus here at 168 but it looks a bit ropey,...see how the rest of the run goes,..could be a reload from the north from NW Greenland.

Edit at 192,...there it is...

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si

[Tim Bland]

End of ECM still has snow for many albeit a bit marginal / sleety on lower ground 

[Lukesluckybunch]

That’s a old chart right?

[Met4Cast]

It’s great to see this thread active again! 

Word of caution re: ECM snow depth charts, they accumulate ALL icy precipitation including sleet, which obviously in reality would melt rather than settle. 

Ensembles are still all over the place but there remains decent support for colder weather, the super amplified scenarios are still a lower likelihood but perhaps increasing in likelihood slightly. 

[AO-]

EC216 not the best chart of the evening, but not bad either. Well within the range. A small delay compared to others perhaps. 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

216 a bit like 14th Jan 2013 where @sheikhy had a dumping of snow, and here missed out

[Lukesluckybunch]

This ECM run is all a bit messy,but still on the cold side..not sure about snow maybe hills and mountains certainly

[That ECM]

Now that is rather nice.

[Allseasons-Si]

Ec day ten does look stunning with no atlantic influence in sight but the lower uppers would follow after that,...good set of runs this afternoon.

Edited November 9, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[Scandinavian High.]

with this chart what weather would we experience down in the south east of england .cold rain i would imagine 

Edited November 9, 2024 by Scandinavian High.

[Zero Visibility]

 

 

 

[sheikhy]

 I remember Atlantic 252 ah man i remember that event every single winter since!!!!was a beauty of a snow event for me here in the midlands!!!was gridlock on the A6!!!forecast was for it to turn to rain for a time but it stayed as snow all the way through!!

[tight isobar]

Ec12z wants a cool down of notable proportions, But has minor caveats of mass fruition making a transition to much more notable cold spill nationwide a tad harder and longer to achieve!- however the over prog is still pretty desirable nonetheless.. many minor dynamics to be resolved. …