Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[stewfox]

Been a while but the forth coming Pub run 18z looks like it will be well attended

[Dennis]

me love to see this chart

a blocking NAO is being stronger from around 15th and the week to follow 

hope you in the UK will be on that wintersurprise 

[WYorksWeather]

 stewfox Anyone want to read the tea leaves at T+72?

[Jacob]

The Greenland high starts to form faster on the 18z

[TSNWK]

ummmm.. seems a bit more messy between Greenland and northern Canada….. no gap for Atlantic heights to flow up through could be an issue

 

[WYorksWeather]

 Jacob Heading out for a walk, but here's T+120 vs. 12z T+126:

[Zero Visibility]

 WYorksWeather 

 + 

 

=  

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Don't panic...

at 138.

just a heads up,...the EC control goes into slider alert in the latter stages,that would be fun if it came off,jff though that far out.

[TSNWK]

 Allseasons-Si heights not nearly as good into Greenland now..lots of mess upstream also

[virtualsphere]

 AO- For overall winter yes, but Jan/March 2013, Feb 1991, Dec 1981/Jan 1982 all solar maximum.

[Allseasons-Si]

 TSNWK Yup,...PANIC!!!

it's the pub run so i am not worried,let's see where it sit's in the gefs ens later.

[CoventryWeather]

Not as neat, albeit expected. The last few runs have probably been too amplified and this one too little. Something in between wouldn't be terrible. 

Still a fair way to go, plenty of change will be expected.

[TSNWK]

Writing on wall at 96 when more mess in Greenland and Canada gap hindered surge of heights..

now at 168 we are left with a toppler and cold blast down the east coast..

as you say let’s hope it’s off on one early doors.

Edited November 9, 2024 by TSNWK

[AO-]

 virtualsphere

True. But unfortunately winter of '13 scored only between 70-90 Hellmann in Holland. The same holds for '10, '11 and '12. Cold spell of '91 was remarkable (also 77 Hellmann) and its too bad I'm not familiar with the winter of '82

[WYorksWeather]

 TSNWK Yep, too diluted. We do need an upper-echelon cold spell at this time of year to deliver anything.

850s are near -4C to -6C, which is unlikely to be enough away from high ground.

 

[Dennis]

my advise next days is wait to 16nov ....charts do wobble 

many parameters take next weekend to the changepoint 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 18z gives us the shortwave drama we don't need early on in the run,i am going to give it the run of the mill in one of these...

if the mornings runs follow suit then we start to worry

saying that,the mean is slightly more amplified into Greenland at 150 but the control run is following the gfs sadly.

[AO-]

I suppose the pub run had too much to drink. It appears a bit tipsy...

[Met4Cast]

The 18z really is showing the possible differences in timing of the Atlantic wave break & how this could easily end up with a mid Atlantic high (I still favour this, but less so than this morning) rather than high latitude blocking. 

Very complex setup!

[Mcconnor8]

 Allseasons-Si

Yes the 18z control Vs the 12z control makes for sad viewing, hopefully the 0z suites look better.

[Murray991]

Meanwhile the ensemble’s are looking better for my location on 18z than in any other run. No concerns, today was a good step forward  

[WYorksWeather]

 AO- A few storm risks at the end of the run.

[LightningLover]

 WYorksWeather Yeah, pretty strong and tightly-woven PV in FI there.

[Wold Topper]

And yet, here we are again...like a drug for geeks , keep up the the good work folks, as an amateur i shall take a watching brief and read and learn

Edited November 9, 2024 by Wold Topper

[Allseasons-Si]

Both the op and control are at the top (milder) end of the pack but the mean is colder than the 12z

18z on the left.