Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[LRD]

Not here to tell grown adults what to do or think but I wouldn't be investing too much emotion or hope in this upcoming cool/cold spell unless you're a sheep on a northern mountain

But the 18z at least gives us some interesting and lively weather, which I think will end up setting the scene for December. Wild, mild and stormy

[LRD]

 LightningLover Looks very much like recent EC46 forecasts. Could be turbulent. If it can't get cold, then I hope so. Better than the bore fest of the last fortnight

Edited November 9 by LRD

[LRD]

18z op run is a warm one

We'll probably get caught in the middle of the current possibilities and get a whole bunch of tedium once again

[LightningLover]

 LRD Agreed! 

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD Perhaps enough for Scotland, going by the mean? As usual with this sort of pattern, far harder to get cold enough for snow further south. Easterlies usually better for that.

[LRD]

 WYorksWeather Yep, I agree

So, if it can't get cold bring on some wild stuff. The sort of weather that makes you feel exhilarated and alive. You know the type I mean...

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD Dull, drizzle and mild south-westerlies? 

 

[blizzard81]

 WYorksWeather Each to their own huh?

[WYorksWeather]

 blizzard81 In all seriousness, that does appear to be what EC46 is favouring later on, and hints of it in tonight's cluster output as well. Then again, it didn't pick up on the upcoming cold spell at all well, so who knows.

[blizzard81]

 WYorksWeather I expect that to happen but hope I'm wrong of course. We all know that when ECM goes for the more zonal solution in the mid to long term then it usually comes off  

[LRD]

 WYorksWeather Pile on if you like mate. But what is shown in FI on this evening's 18z would not be the dreary conditions you describe. It would be heavy rain, gales, then thunder with hail in the showers that follow

If you prefer this last fortnight to that then maybe I'm in the wrong place.

Edited November 10 by LRD

[WYorksWeather]

 LRD Sorry, don't think the sarcasm came through very well. I wasn't saying the chart was showing dull and mild south-westerlies with drizzle. I was saying that given the current UK climate, we'll probably go from mild, dull and dry, then the brief cold snap, then mild, dull and wet, just because that seems to be the 2024 climate 

I agree the charts as shown, end of the 18z, are not like that at all. Actually keeping things relatively cool, so a more typical November storm type pattern rather than anything absurdly mild.

 

[LRD]

 WYorksWeather Fair enough 

I get what you mean. But that FI on the 18z is, for me, more appealing than what we've just gone through. I like extremes. I prefer cold extremes between now and mid Feb but if that's not on the cards then wild, mild, wet and stormy provides a different kind of interest

Edited November 10 by LRD

[tight isobar]

A very much improved profile and angle of arctic sourced flow via 00z gfs. Still only a- MLB rather than a penatrative HLB- however a stiff packed punch nonetheless!. And still very much scope for even more defined inflows as we gain. Going forward. …. Game firmly bk on. 

Edited November 10 by tight isobar

[That ECM]

T168 not much point going further imo.

[Dennis]

Good morning everyone 

 16nov as mentioned for the start (changepoint charts) date coldlovers.....

 

nice EC few days later 

Edited November 10 by Dennis

[That ECM]

As per post above. Always liked the gem.

[Dennis]

gfs0z ideas on snow UK

[TSNWK]

Morning… definitely a shift for less heights into Greenland since yesterdays 12z suite last nights 18z appears to have over reacted to this new signal and this mornings gfs along with ecm retain a degree of hope for coldies..

as tends to be case we appear to be settling in a middle ground..

next weekend onwards for few cold days.. then as has been alluded from ecm eps we go more traditional with heights into Europe / this starting to set up on day 10 ecm with less heights into Greenland and topple lining up..

 

see a lot worse and might change 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM not great this morning at 168 all the cold stays bottled way north of the uk,when it eventually does sink south days 9 into 10 most of it goes in the Atlantic.chance of a snow event I would guess 216 into 240 as the low pulls through,especially for the north

[Blessed Weather]

Good to see GFS and ECM in broad agreement with the northern hemisphere profile at Day 10, both showing a direct flow from the Pole giving the UK a first taste of wintry weather.

GFS  ECM

But caution needed - verification for both models falls away rapidly from Day 5 to Day 10 as the anomaly correlation coefficient stats show (with ECM outperforming GFS)

GFS Day 5: 0.91  Day 10: 0.45
ECM Day 5: 0.94  Day 10: 0.55

Day 10 stats:

Source: (where you can adjust the number of days):

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/

[Dennis]

NAO ideas 

it seems not holding very long (for now) .....so how the details be will from 16th .. i give it 1 week with blocking NAO with the strongest impact around 19-21th

.

[thickness line]

 Lukesluckybunch God don't people overreact when things are not showing what thay want to see.its going to get colder sunner things are looking good just think people it could be raging zonal it's not like others have said the Atlantic looks dead going forward we await the 6z

[thickness line]

Ecm looks fine to me just subtle differences on the overall set up 

[Dennis]

KMA chart 500hpa