Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

28 minutes ago, thickness line said:

God don't people overreact when things are not showing what thay want to see.its going to get colder sunner things are looking good just think people it could be raging zonal it's not like others have said the Atlantic looks dead going forward we await the 6z

I am not overreacting simply just commenting on what the current ECM is showing..that’s what we do comment in the output,things are due to get a bit colder yes

[northwestsnow]

 thickness line

If you want snow EC is useless unless you live north of manchester and live up a big hill .

too far out for finer detail but we would need pretty hefty upgrades to that run

GFS better.

Edited November 10, 2024 by northwestsnow

[TSNWK]

 northwestsnow that’s you sorted then…

Edited November 10, 2024 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 

 thickness line

If you want snow EC is useless unless you live north of manchester and live up a big hill .

 

Exactly how I see it NW,a potential snow event I said days 9 into 10 other then that it’s a bit uncertain.it takes the long route around and misses the intitial northerly at 168

[northwestsnow]

 TSNWK haha not sure even I'm north enough tbh.

Really disappointed with EC 00z I'll be expecting better later

[Dennis]

KMA snow storm .... all can happen into days after next weekend 

Edited November 10, 2024 by Dennis

[northwestsnow]

I suspect ec det is one of the milder runs of the suite  we'll see..

[nick sussex]

It looks like it might take two attempts to get the cold air south . A shortwave running se on the eastern flank of the Atlantic high seems the favourite .

The issue really is the blocking is more mid Atlantic rather than properly into Greenland . Outputs can often overplay the blocking signal in FI so best to view those later outputs with that in mind .

I think we're in a holding pattern this morning to see what happens with any se tracking short wave . We want low pressure to the east or ne and not slow moving near the UK .

Overall the outputs get a 6.5/10 for cold potential. Let's hope the GFS 06 hrs can get that to over 7 .

[Mcconnor8]

 Dennis

It would just be rain for vast majority of the UK unfortunately, uppers need to be colder, would be a tad windy though lol look at that pressure gradient.

[Mike Poole]

I think the pattern has been watered down a bit this morning, looking at the 0z clusters, T192-T240:

The cold air doesn’t really get to the UK until day 9, it should be day 7-8 by now, so I think the perfect alignment may have degraded a bit.  At day 9 the northerly is there on all except cluster 4, but my impression is the block is less strong (the reds in the Greenland vicinity are less strong).

T264+:

Six clusters tells its own story, the signal in the extended looks to have been lost, some of the clusters show a return to mobility (4&6), the other options are inconsistent, there are options to extend the colder pattern, cluster 5 looks quite solid, but it has 8 members, a similar pattern had more members supporting it yesterday morning.

[northwestsnow]

 Dennis where a Snowstorm?

[bluearmy]

I guess it’s not surprising but the ec AI 00z looks like an evolution we’d expect to see rather than what the ‘normal’ nwp is churning out atm. 

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Edited November 10, 2024 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

 Mike Poole

Det in the less cold cluster 2 .

we dont want cluster 2 .

cluster 1 better ...

Agree reg watering down ..

[Beanz]

 northwestsnow there isn’t one - just smile and keep walking

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,Geffs 06 ensembles looks interesting from around the 17 th onwards operational and control up and down like a fiddlers elbow but most members showing below mean temperatures.

[Dennis]

 northwestsnow that will be a surprise 

i wont tell now 

[Jacob]

If only we had a permanent Greenland high! Nice, dry summers and cold snowy winters. I doubt this model is very accurate since nobody bats an eye but here’s a nice cold spell from the NASA model, -8 uppers across the country

[Mcconnor8]

 Jacob Yeah models like the JMA, KMA, NASA and Navgem usually only get wheeled out when times are desperate as they are pretty hopeless, to be honest just sticking to the ECM ensemble would make life much simpler but where's the fun in that

[Lukesluckybunch]

Coming back to what nick was saying,with a MLB it’s always going to be difficult to get something cold and prolonged..one good thing it seems that the PV is fairly quiet,so even a MLB could hold for a number of days before it gets flattened out and we return to westerlies..thoughts?

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy Why do you think it's more like what we should expect to see?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day NOAA 500mb anomaly charts address the change from the current UK High Pressure pattern for upper heights to push into the mid-Atlantic and a trough of lower heights to establish to the East of us towards Scandinavia and nearby continent. The 8 to 14 chart has been keeping up with this idea for last few days with this outlook spilling into the 6 to 10 day chart. So is getting to nearer timeframes and should bring a chillier aspect to the weather for the UK for a time.
 

6 to 10 day:

8 to 14 day:

Upper flow from the North-West over the UK originating from the Northern mid-Atlantic/Southern Greenland area. No milder flow from the South-West. Though regarding any possible snow chances the operational and short-range models should pick out on any of these. But wouldn’t rule out any wintry possibilities (certainly increased chances the higher up you are). Heights over Greenland themselves aren’t majorly above average. Therefore not confident there will be a big block over that area (plus the upper ridging in the Northern mid-Atlantic via the green contour lines does become a touch flatter on the 8 to 14 day chart, so is not certain whether a chillier spell from the North-West and North will be long-lasting. But I guess seeing a decent chillier blast, even if temporary, would be a start since it is still fairly early in the month). Chart does show enough to suggest the Atlantic Lows will be taking a nap. And I think for chillier weather prospects, it could be a lot worse. Be a break no doubt from the current pattern. It will personally be nice to see that bright glow in the sky return.

While not model related, today a day where those who sadly lost their lives in the wars become remembered

[carinthian]

Morning all. Not bad set of models . All showing a shot of cold for many in NW Europe for the second half of the month.  Yes, always a spanner in the works to make things a bit complicated get a direct route to Arctic out flow. " Short Waves ", Oh how I hate that phrase. Must be American definition. Back in the old days we described as a disturbance or Mid- Atmosphere trough formation.   Think the trend still looks good for cold lovers.

C

[RJBingham]

Cool spell still on, nothing extraordinary in the reliable, bit of cold rain maybe. 

[Chesil View]

Not expecting anything worthwhile from the current early winter tease. 

The Atlantic block for what it is far too temporary and not a true Greenland high, a day or two of suppressed temperatures compared to recently and perhaps some snow/wintry showers for the usual upland suspects.

The reality is that you need something far more solid to bring proper winter weather to the majority of lowland UK in mid/late November.

Feeble efforts like the current progged one really don't cut the mustard.

This is where that high needs to be for widespread November snow.

Edited November 10, 2024 by Chesil View

[Mcconnor8]

 blizzard81

It's a pretty poor run so I guess more like what we expect here lol

Do get some sliders later on which would give snowfall to some but well into FI at that point

Edited November 10, 2024 by Mcconnor8