Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[northwestsnow]

 HarvSlugger

As it stands Id say 300m will be needed south of the border.

The uppers arent cold enough ..

Subject to change ..

[Northern Sky]

I wouldn't be in the least surprised if any snow chances gradually disappear over the next few days, almost always the models over estimate high latitude blocking at days 7 onwards. I love snow but I also love a bit of cold wind and rain in November so I'm happy just to get rid of this boring cloudy mild muck for a bit. 

I think it's likely that we'll see a return to a more mobile Westerly pattern after this cooler period and then it's just fingers crossed as we head into December in the hope of some chances for real cold. 

[Met4Cast]

The main issue we have is there’s unlikely to be a “second bite, with the MJO emerging in the Indian Ocean and AAM falling we’re moving into a likely +AO/+NAO period, the fact we’re looking at a potentially cooler period is more down to lucky timing than any actual driver behind it. 

[HarvSlugger]

 northwestsnow I have a mountain near me at 540m I guess I'll go up there

[Dennis]

hi all

a bit info on polarvortex , into dec24 a few signs of a stronger warmer seems to be at the horizon

 

[johncam]

 Met4Cast that's the danger this this chance could be it for a while or knowing our luck our best chance 

Edited November 10, 2024 by johncam

[Dennis]

better 

 

[TSNWK]

 johncam probably correct..main reason we are a small island with a maritime climate has been the way since tbe ice age ended..every so often we eek out something different.

unless you move to Canada or the likes it is best to roll along with our climate  

Edited November 10, 2024 by TSNWK

[AO-]

 Met4Cast

Then the question comes to mind whether you have seen cold/wintry periods without the background drivers supporting them. Have you? In other words, is it possible to have a cold spell without the background drivers falling in place. 

[northwestsnow]

 TSNWK

Thats true.

Now compounded by a warming world.

[TSNWK]

 northwestsnow agreed..

which has to accepted so all  let's just roll with things and enjoy the occasional rides..

Edited November 10, 2024 by TSNWK

[Met4Cast]

 AO-

Yes, last November being a good example when something similar to the current evolution happened. 

Without sufficient background forcing though it’s very, very difficult to get anything sustained or notable without getting very lucky. 

[nick sussex]

Cold potential slips to 6/10 after an underwhelming GFS 06 hrs run .

Any interest is kicked into the latter stages so it's been a bit of a meh start to the day .

Let's hope for an upturn later .

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Cold potential slips to 6/10 after an underwhelming GFS 06 hrs run .

It’s that delaying feeling again nick,with the gefs mean being very good between 168-240,I am expecting a better op run on the 12z!

[Dancerwithwings]

 Mcconnor8  The GEM is showing the identical snowballs are us event

[nick sussex]

 Lukesluckybunch

 

Let's hope so as we've hit the skids  this morning. The initial cold shot doesn't look much and so it's the shortwave after that which the models expect to run se on the eastern flank of the high that now needs to help pull some better cold south . But we don't want a cyclonic flow stuck over the UK as the cold will remain to the nw.

As with any cold in the UK it's like pulling teeth ! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Let's hope so as we've hit the skids  this morning. The initial cold shot doesn't look much and so it's the shortwave after that which the models expect to run se on the eastern flank of the high that now needs to help pull some better cold south . But we don't want a cyclonic flow stuck over the UK as the cold will remain to the nw.

It seems that way at the moment..that shortwave needs move east and south with minimal fuss,if it goes south and west putting pressure on the block,we may be left with the wrap around of potentially milder air..a bit like the ECM showed this morning,would be nice to get a nice clean route too cold without all the drama 

[Djdazzle]

Even in January, you pretty much need a miracle these days to get anything severely cold or snowy in the south. As for November . ..

It’s the usual story - a carrot gets dangled in FI then it’s downgraded. Hence why folk shouldn’t get too excited.

[CoventryWeather]

ECM AI still suggesting a wedge to the north - quite a few sliders. 

Delays the cold but has it longer. Sort of. 

[That ECM]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

As for November . ..

It’s the usual story - a carrot gets dangled in FI then it’s downgraded. Hence why folk shouldn’t get too excited.

Location will determine who is excited or not but when high areas in north are at risk of seeing snow according to the mets updated outlook and it’s November, I think that’s a result. I’m enjoying the nhp viewing instead of just flat.

Edited November 10, 2024 by That ECM

[IanT]

2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Without sufficient background forcing though it’s very, very difficult to get anything sustained or notable without getting very lucky.

Fortunate then that no posters here appear over-invested in “…anything sustained or notable”..!

After an extended period with (frankly) little to interest model watchers and weather enthusiasts, it’s great to see seasonal possibilities starting to appear in the NWP models.

Edited November 10, 2024 by IanT

[RJBingham]

A chilly week, before drifting back to average 

Edited November 10, 2024 by RJBingham

[Frosty.]

I preferred yesterdays 6z although that was an extreme solution but at least it looks like a more interesting period around mid month, certainly compared to the mostly dull anticyclonic conditions during the last 7-10 days…and, it’s still 3 weeks until the meteorological winter begins..plenty of time for wintery weather then!  

Edited November 10, 2024 by Frosty.

[BlueHedgehog074]

That is true. Even April can deliver sone wintry delights. Northerlies by then can  still provide a good bite. 

Not much expectations with the 12Z runs, but is fun seeing the scenarios all these models produce. Certainly can’t completely rule out anything yet. 

[Jackski4]

Are the 12zs not out yet or is everyone just crying?