Model Output Discussion Autumn 2024

[Dark Horse]

 northwestsnow you'll have to get on your roof then nws

[Lukesluckybunch]

Icon 12z looking fine,sypnotically good..uppers are a bit down but can work on that 

[mulzy]

Way, way too early to be thinking about wintry nirvana (unless you live on Northern hills).  The longer the delay, the better.  Hopefully by 4-5 weeks!

[Jacob]

 Lukesluckybunch Icon can still get very good uppers further out, it shows Scandinavia developing more severe cold, and the Greenland block stays strong

The GFS 12z isn't looking any better right now, Greenland is even more messy and it's less amplified

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO 144

[WYorksWeather]

 AO- Wasn't trying to say it has, merely saying that at the moment, the mean isn't quite getting there. That can definitely still change, if the ensemble resolves towards the colder options.

[TSNWK]

12z so far at day 6.5 very similar to 06z.. maybe a smidge flatter that might increase further as run progresses is my current view.

 

[Kasim Awan]

Odd to say this potential cold spell will be the last one for a while when it hasn't even verified yet. Also our understanding of telleconnection drivers is not definitively accurate meaning the outcome for 2-8weeks away is not definitive. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs has some catching up to do if the UKMO and ICON are right

all 4 at 144.

or is the gfs going to be right,...i hope not.

Edited November 10, 2024 by Allseasons-Si
Added chart

[Mcconnor8]

Big variations at Day 6 across the 12z models, fair to say a lot of uncertainty still.

GFS is getting its act together further on in the run.

Edited November 10, 2024 by Mcconnor8

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

The gfs has some catching up to do if the UKMO and ICON are right

You can add the gem to that,also looking very good!

[Jacob]

the 12z ends up looking better with Greenland high forming faster, and colder uppers arriving 12z: and heres the 6z: 

 

Edited November 10, 2024 by Jacob

[TSNWK]

Much cleaner

[Allseasons-Si]

 Lukesluckybunch Yes the GEM slipped my mind as i am a tad busy ATM but thanks,i have added it to my post

the gfs does have a second bite though from day 8...

the GEM a bit sooner

i suspect the timing is yet to be nailed on with this cold plundge,...if it happen's.

Edited November 10, 2024 by Allseasons-Si

[That ECM]

 Allseasons-Si The fact that they all develop a block is a real positive. 
 

Considering T216 fairly consistent, again I see this as a positive.

 

Edited November 10, 2024 by That ECM

[Geordiesnow]

For me there is very little differences between the runs and the trend has been to potentially bring any colder weather further forward. 

Whilst the UKMO has it better upstream, it's not showing a Greenland high but we should see a bit more cold air into the mix with the stronger looking northerly flow. 

Still whichever model your looking at, the high pressure spell is coming to an end and cooler/colder snap/spell is on the way. Nothing extreme but the potential is there for sure.

[That ECM]

What time does @sheikhy heads up come out?

[Cheshire Freeze]

The positive take away from me this evening is that pressure is now shown to rise over Greenland proper, even if core heights remain S of there.

[MJB]

 Lukesluckybunch @168

 

[Allseasons-Si]

 That ECM I wouldn't say they develop a block,the block looks nailed on,...it's how amplified we can get this pattern

the 12z is an upgrade to me across the suit's.

[Jacob]

This pesky low in America stops this from being excellent, but its still a great run 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs and GEM are very clean indeed,...cold spell back on with no shortwave drama's...

[tight isobar]

Txt book “ synoptic northerly incursión”. And any mlb- lower HLB would aid massively  a reload type scenario ( and scupper shortwaing in later outputs/ suites, as momentum and a rapidly drope zone freeze in the upper latitudes could see an- unusually noticeable’spell of cold’ rather than ya cold snap… we’ ll see ?!…

Edited November 10, 2024 by tight isobar

[Cheshire Freeze]

 Allseasons-Si get the -6 to -8 uppers in and most places have a chance at seeing snow fall, not just the hills as someone said earlier.

Edited November 10, 2024 by Cheshire Freeze

[Geordiesnow]

 Allseasons-Si That's the crucial question in all this and we will see variation on that between the runs. My gut instinct will say an attempted ridge with some chilly air moving down but perhaps a struggle to get the coldest air down. Just got to hope the upstream pattern can hold on in all this.