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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

EC det is BITTER.

Certainly my locale temps of -5 Tues night onwards and not much above zero through the day.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Just taken a look at the ecm 00z charts from yesterday morning and compared them to this mornings 00z and theres a defo shift to gfs and ukmo with a cleaner northerly flow incoming from the north and a bit earlier as well!!infact its quite shocking from ecm cos after taken a look it looks like it was wrong very as early as 96 hours!!!!

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

I’m liking all the kinks and the mess over the UK, some snow events for sure.

IMG_1110.png

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.51e78fe2717b3021f6afe2af6f7ced11.png

 

Still a lot of scatter looking at the 00z nothing to get excited about the further south you are, Cold rain/Hail coastal areas the higher the elevation and the further North more chances of snow. 

Just a bog stranded set up North/ South split, And with the scatter i would throw caution to the wind not really clean cut for the south.  

Edited by Nick2373
  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Messy and slack cold pool forming over us.. so much better than last night..

uppers not particularly cold.. but with this slack pressure not so important and with increasing low solar input it will only get colder for as long as we can keep the pattern.

image.thumb.png.645c80dd8951e2d364886a8de78f6d75.png

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Hi all, been quietly watching the models over the past week, severe weather is my main interest so i dont know lots about winter synoptics but im liking a lot of the runs and discussions posted on here.

Have been trying to manage my expectations but some of the things said by others in this topic have got me a little excited, honestly ill take anything over the weeks of gloom weve had to suffer through 😄

image.thumb.png.1483bd56c7aba9bde820f0ef097c1ff2.png

For any snow fans, the 00z gfs has a great solution, a low pressure system slides through the channel with lots of cold air and a dumping of snow on the north/backside, goes with 43 cm of snow falling for some areas in 24 hours!

image.thumb.png.f9b1bff9f66ffda33ef5f5916950a5bd.pngimage.thumb.png.118ea0ae80dd19452a37515dadb108b1.pngimage.thumb.png.ce25e4ba5fea71f4125f757acaab44a7.pngimage.thumb.png.ff53f63dbca3d7ff6e54d275d434d4c4.pngimage.thumb.png.a80a834b49a1740dcdce01f97726725b.png 

00z Total snowfall charts

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Lets hope the first winter chase of the season results in a bountiful reward😄

Interestingly, the pattern upstream of us in the United States is looking very favorable for snow and cold weather across the lower US, with the 12z GFS having freezing temps reaching the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle, wonder how this might impact us and the jetstream later on in November. 

image.thumb.png.b11ee02807e2e194427aea6deab379f5.png

Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

animuim9.gifOne thing of slight concern though is the height flush away over Greenland and maybe we see start of vortex reforming days 7 to 10 ?

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

I’ve not followed the models over the summer, so can’t comment on how they performed. But last winter ECM was always playing catch up to GFS. Looks to be that way again currently.

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted (edited)

The key for me is that heights remain as high as possible over Greenland. I don't see that right now, rather a messy affair with lows bumping into cold stagnant air. I see a lot of cold rain at times with Northern hills obviously doing much better.

Overall though for not even mid November we certainly are doing well!! Also it wouldn't take much of an upgrade to launch us into a 2010 scenario 

Edited by January Snowstorm
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 bluearmy brilliant 00z runs.

The minima are truly frigid esp on EC,probably easily 8-10 degrees below average !

 

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posted

 Nick2373 I don't think you can call this usual. Yes there is such thing as a north south split but the models aren't showing that usual affair. They're showing a lot colder weather than you'd expect at this stage in November 

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow alot of snow
  • Location: Utrecht, the Netherlands
Posted

 northwestsnow first look in here for today, and i see this🧎‍♀️

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted

 Nick123 I've been watching these set ups for years and can insure you that the higher the elevation the greater the chance of snow this time of the year. The closer you are to the coast or further south you will be lucky to see sleet mixed with cold rain, yes its cold for November but its nothing special i.e a 2010 redux. 

  • Like 2
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