Most mediocre years: can any beat 2024?

[Summer8906]

A bit of a follow on from the summer 2023 vs 2024 thread.

I've said this many times before but the mediocrity of 2024 does stand out. My current ratings for the months of 2024 for the south Hampshire area would be:

Jan 5/10

Feb 3/10

Mar 3/10

Apr 4/10

May 4.5/10

June 6/10

July 4/10 (estimate based on second-hand info)

August 5/10 (estimate based on second-hand info)

September 5/10 (based on current model runs, assuming we will get just one deep Atlantic low and the northerly will kick in. Could be between 4/10 - if we get a run of Atlantic lows  - and 6/10 - if the northerly keeps the Atlantic out altogether).

So just one month achieving 6/10 and the rest 5/10 or below.

Thinking back, I'm struggling to find any year back where not one month would achieve at least 7/10. Even the oft-cited for mediocrity 2002 achieved two 8/10s (for April and September) in my area.

So, and I realise it involves thinking back, can anyone recall a year in which they personally wouldn't rate a single month at 7/10 or more?

I also realise we haven't had Oct-Dec, but 7+/10 ratings for Oct-Dec are a distinct rarity, so cynically I'm assuming none of these three months will get more than 6! (Last Oct-Dec month I would give 7/10 or more was October 2018).

Edited September 21 by Summer8906

[Catbrainz]

I've got a year on mind. I would nominate 1998 for being a very poor year overall (2024 is basically 1998 but with climate change moving the jet north for summer). Looking at the summary of 1998 it sounds like a truly dire year (August was decent for the south,Feb had a early springlike spell and May was on the drier side but that's about it). Not shocking that 1998 and 2024 have a lot in common both being post strong Nino years (In fact 2023-2024 has had a lot of similarities to 1997-1998)

 

If anyone is wondering where I got the summary from its here
https://www.trevorharley.com/1998.html

[Harry233]

September 2024 has been a very decent month up here so far, been very sunny, often dry and had spells of cool weather but also some very pleasantly warm weather, so that’s really helped so far. The one word I would use to describe 2024 is unsettled. There has been some good days here and there but they have been very short lived and I’ve never known it to be so showery. Compared to some other years, winter 2024 was actually quite sunny here and we did have a very cold middle of January with some very severe frosts so that helped somewhat.

I would say 2002 was a worse year due to the dull weather in the winter. 2002 here didn’t have a single month with above average sunshine and only April and September were drier than average. 2024 has at least for me had a very sunny winter and July was dry (certainly didn’t feel like it though) September so far has been lovely, still a bit of time left 2024 may still bring a very settled and sunny autumn and December. If I had to rank all years worse to best since 2000 I would go with:

1: 2002

2: 2011

3: 2024 (so far)

4: 2014

5: 2008

6: 2023

7: 2004

8: 2012

9: 2000

10: 2015

11: 2016

12: 2005

13: 2007

14: 2017

15: 2001

16: 2010

17: 2009

18: 2013

19: 2020

20: 2019

21: 2021

22: 2003

23: 2022

24: 2018

 

 

[SummerShower]

I'd say 2002 and 2011 as well.  

2002 had no real redeeming features.  April and August were decent enough.  Interestingly September I remember being very dry but the stats make out it was wetter than I remember.  If you like gales and rain then February and October we're good (but I know most people dont)

2011 had good spells in April and October but that's about it.

Agree with 2024 being up there, only May and September (so far) have been meteorologically interesting.  Locally we've not been bad for storms but I'm trying to see the picture for the whole UK.

[Harry233]

 SummerShower Even May I wouldn’t say was that pleasant. There was some very nice weather in the second and last week but it was generally cloudy and very humid, ridiculously mild at night time. Very bizarre month indeed never seen anything like it

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Catbrainz said:

I've got a year on mind. I would nominate 1998 for being a very poor year overall (2024 is basically 1998 but with climate change moving the jet north for summer). Looking at the summary of 1998 it sounds like a truly dire year (August was decent for the south,Feb had a early springlike spell and May was on the drier side but that's about it). Not shocking that 1998 and 2024 have a lot in common both being post strong Nino years (In fact 2023-2024 has had a lot of similarities to 1997-1998)

Some similarities for 1998 but perhaps more extremes, so some really bad months mixed with good ones. For 1998 I'd go 7/10 for Feb (dry and sunny but very mild - loses some marks for lack of snow/frost), around 7.5/10 for May (very good middle 2 weeks, less good before and after), 8/10 for August (fairly consistently warm and sunny) and around 7/10 for November (lengthy cold dry spell).

There have been no months so far in 2024 which I'd rate as highly as Feb, May, Aug or Nov 1998.

Wasn't the jet further north in Aug 1998 than Aug 2024? The former month had some fairly lengthy true anticyclonic spells, notably around the 4th-11th but also later. Aug 2024 seemed to be mostly flat westerly albeit with moderately high pressure in the south, and had more frontal systems than 1998.

Edited September 21 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Harry233 May wasn't especially great but had some meteorological interest, I guess, in the sense that it was basically cyclonic SE-ly which is at least more interesting than constant SW-lies off the Atlantic which had typified the early months to mid-April.

Some thundery setups but only one produced actual thunder here (night of 1st). But I wouldn't rate it highly due to its generally cloudy and damp character. We got lucky with 2 consecutive fine Saturdays on the 11th and 18th though. Both bank holiday weekends were fairly poor, if I remember right.

Edited September 21 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

2011 had good spells in April and October but that's about it.

I would also rate second half of Jan (cold and dry), almost all of March, and November (mild but unseasonably dry and sunny) highly as well.

May 2011 was inoffensive but unseasonably zonal and thus rather meteorologically boring. Sounds like Aug 2024 was perhaps rather similar to May 2011, fairly dry, but zonal and uninteresting without much sunshine.

Edited September 21 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

2002 had no real redeeming features.  April and August were decent enough.  Interestingly September I remember being very dry but the stats make out it was wetter than I remember. 

I'd say April was particularly good with prolonged sunshine. Agree that August was pleasant but not exceptional, a lack of sunshine prevented it being really good though it was often warm and dry.

September's stats were distorted by one extremely wet day on the 9th. A very bizarre setup: the 7th/8th had been a standard westerly (an early fine spell breaking down around the 4th) then a low moved in from the SE producing prolonged and heavy rain with flooding on the 9th. The low seemed to develop in situ: it's not evident on the charts for the 8th. The usual progression from there is more unsettled weather, but the low disappeared as quickly as it had formed (not present on the charts of the 10th) and pressure suddenly built on the 10th immediately behind the low and for the rest of the month it barely rained at all. The days immediately following the 9th were particularly sunny.

That low must presumably be the subject of meteorological discussion somewhere as it was certainly a bizarre event. It formed suddenly, dumped huge amounts of rain, and then dissipated again.

Edited September 21 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow]

 Summer8906 I think May 2011 is the most south-westerly May on record. There was a large gap in rainfall totals between a very dry south-east and a very wet north-west. Parts of Kent had under 10mm that month. A proper spring drought. Maps show in East Anglia it was basically an extension of the extremely dry and warm April.

 

[Weather-history]

2002 as I posted this in this thread

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/76278-forgettable-years-weatherwise/

[Catbrainz]

 Summer8906 I was thinking more the summer overall for the jet being further north. August 1998 does seem a slightly improved version of August 2024 I presume from higher AAM meaning more ridging. June and July 1998 more so the jet being further south than in 2024. It would be a hard choice between 1998 and 2024 1998 does have some good months but also quite a few trully dire months while 2024 is more consistent aside from Feb-Mar 2024. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Since I started observing the weather closely, I can't remember any year that had no months that I'd rate at 7 or higher, but 2002 was a near approach with just one such month (April), as September 2002 was a SW-NE split month sunshine wise and I was on the wrong side of the split. 1998 was the other near approach, just about scraping two or three 7s.

As for 2024, it's been another near approach so far, I'd probably give August a 7 where I live, and perhaps January, but not a lot. However the way September is shaping up it could well be higher than a 7.

Regarding Augusts 2024 and 1998, I think they were pretty similar months in the north, though 2024 was wetter in western Scotland. However August 1998 was considerably sunnier than August 2024 in the south of England, London had over 260 hours.

 

[Summer8906]

 Weather-history Ah but 2002 had two distinctly good months - April and September.

[Harry233]

 Summer8906 probably depending on location but even those two months weren’t that great imo. April 2002 was still dull and September wasn’t much better. However April 2002 was only dull in the central belt of Scotland so I was just unlucky.

[Summer8906]

 

 Harry233 I do remember both April and September 2002 had a lot of NE-lies, which would favour here but perhaps not favour the Central Belt of Scotland.

By contrast 2024 has been very W-ly or SW-ly, which generally does not favour this location: such wind directions are invariably cloudy. We need winds in the northeasterly half of the compass (NW to SE via NE) or anticyclonic conditions to get decent sunshine here. May gave SE-lies which are often sunny but it was also very cyclonic, hence the cloud continued.

Edited September 22 by Summer8906

[Harry233]

 Summer8906 that was exactly it. 2002 only recorded just over 1,000 hours of sunshine which here is absolutely pitiful. Even a year with less than 1,400 hours for my part I would say is now dull.  2014 followed a similar pattern particularly in the autumn. 2018 and 2022 recorded just under 1,700 hours here which was insane. Would love to recorded sunshine levels like that all the time

[philglossop]

2002 in a heartbeat. It was a real beige year here, even the December rains were just annoying here rather than notable.