Hurricane Helene

[matty40s]

 

Edited September 25 by Jo Farrow
name hurricane

[matty40s]

The worrying thing is that this is exactly how Micheal started, , bombing from nothing tons Cat4/5 within 48 hours with catastrophic results as it hit Florida.

[WeatherArc]

I know the GFS can often spit these wild runs out and others like the euro have been tamer, however

This is what's really getting my alarm bells ringing with Helene, look at all that heat content in the Gulf, lots of potential for things to go bang.

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

Now thats a look... HAFS-B coming in hot with an almost sub 900mb Hurricane Helene.

With pressure at 904mb and winds of 161mph Helene would be well into the Cat 5 territory.

This model performed well with Beryl, 

Edited September 23 by WeatherArc

[matty40s]

All the models are showing min Cat4 at present, the NHC is being a bit more conservative...

 

[weatherCharter]

Animation of the track from todays 06z GFS run:

 

[matty40s]

 

[WYorksWeather]

I think too early to be talking about Cat 5 yet - it is possible of course, but model consensus at the moment is around Cat 3. It wouldn't surprise me if it did reach Cat 5 necessarily, but models don't explicitly show it.

A lot depends on how quickly it can form up into a tropical storm. It is a relatively speedy track from here, only about three days, so the key is time to organisation. We saw with Otis last year that a Cat 1 can turn into a Cat 5 literally overnight with the right conditions.

Let's hope it takes a bit of time to get going and impacts are on the lower end.

[WYorksWeather]

Just having a look through the 12z models.

HWRF has the highest winds at 98kt at peak - a low end Cat 3.

HMON is stronger. Winds peak at 123kt, which is in the middle of Cat 4.

GFS is weaker, with a 95kt high end Cat 2.

The HAFS-A is insane. A 162kt monster (minimum threshold for Cat 5 is 137kt!).

HAFS-B is also in the same boat, a ridiculous 159kt peak.

So, overall, the HAFS series of models are out on their own with this insane strength, with most other options a more reasonable Cat 2-4. Hopefully the HAFS-A and HAFS-B have gone a bit bonkers.

[WeatherArc]

HAFS-B really going for it now, i would say likely overdoing things but im also cautious to throw out any run of any model just for making it too intense, we saw what happened with  Beryl earlier this year.

889mb Hurricane Helene, if this came off it would likely tie with Gilbert as the second most intense Atlantic Hurricane on record by peak low pressure (although still way off the records set in the Western Pacific) peak winds here would be around 182mph.
  

Still lots of spread in intensity, although the 18z run is the first time ive seen Cat 5 runs appear.

Its also really worth mentioning that Helene's track will parallel the loop current, an area of particularly warm waters in the Gulf, almost every hurricane that has hit above average SSTs in the loop current has skyrocketed in intensity.

 

Loop Current - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[WYorksWeather]

The NHC cone now calls for a major hurricane (Cat 3). Will be interesting to see where the consensus goes overnight.

[matty40s]

The one thing stopping Helene from Cat5 is affecting the West side of its germination....Hurricane John in the Pacific basin, forecast to landfall soon.

Josh still looking at Cat4 though.. 

 

Edited September 24 by matty40s

[Lauren]

These gulf storms often tend to end up being something special. Often spectacular to watch how rapidly they intensify.

Obviously not for the people who are in the path of it.

 

[karyo]

This thing is taking forever to form! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 karyo Yes! The opposite of the first hurricane of the season!

[karyo]

We now have tropical storm Helene! 

[karyo]

The 12Z ICON has significantly upgraded the strength of Helene!

The NHC is expecting Helene to become a major hurricane in 48 hours!

[Jo Farrow]

Tropical Storm Helene

[Thunder Snow]

We have TS  Helene

[FetchCB]

For the history and comparison of Michael in 2018

Hurricane Michael 2018

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

Edited September 24 by FetchCB
Spelling

[matty40s]

 

[Alderc 2.0]

12Z NAM goes nuts with a 883mb cat 5 west of Tampa in 60hrs

 

[matty40s]

It will not end with landfall on this occasion, with a large trough over the mainland USA, vast amounts of water will fall...

 

[karyo]

 matty40s Yes, Helene is expected to slow down by the time it reaches Georgia, so rainfall amounts will be more significant further inland than usual.