Hurricane Helene

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[lottiekent]

Which channel is best to keep an eye on while this is on for coverage? The Weather Channel? 
 

Might have it on as a side to my work screen today.

[karyo]

I am surprised to see Helene hasn't really strengthened overnight. 

She should start to intensify rapidly this morning but she has limited time till landfall.

[Alderc 2.0]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

 

I am surprised to see Helene hasn't really strengthened overnight. 

She should start to intensify rapidly this morning but she has limited time till landfall.

 

Yes. I expected to wake up to at least a 100mph storm this morning. A little more dry air was pulled in but the inner core has struggled to organise, on the IR imagery it looks like Helene is now again attempting to form an eye but again it looks elliptical to some degree.

[karyo]

 Alderc 2.0 The 4am NHC update is out and Helene has strengthened slightly.

Maximum sustained winds 90mph

Pressure 966mb

[FetchCB]

Recon reported Central pressure of 965mb with a closed Eye of 32nm and Maximum Flight Level winds of 99mph

 

[FetchCB]

Tampa preparing for major Flooding Live coverage 

 

Live News Stream: Watch FOX 13 Tampa Bay (fox13news.com)

[karyo]

In a way, Florida is lucky because Helene is going to make landfall in a part of the state that is not highly populated. 

If the track was further south and east then there would be much bigger flooding problem for Tampa.

[lottiekent]

This link is covering it extensively at the moment

 

[FetchCB]

Now a Category 2 wit significant strengthening forecast

[WeatherArc]

Perhaps  the dry air did more damage than i initially thought it would do, regardless whether Helene arrives as a Cat 3 or a Cat 4, she will bring a massive storm surge, this is not due to her strength in winds but her massive size, and the fact shes a quick mover. 

Shes also deviating from her path, going a little more east. 

 

Edited September 26 by WeatherArc

[Alderc 2.0]

Starting to look ominous on IR imagery now. Would expect a bigger intensification in the next 12hrs. 

[PottersGreenSW92]

I am currently staying in Clearwater beach and winds are getting up. My well wishes to those on the big bend as it is going to be devastating when it hits

[karyo]

The GFS likes the idea of a new GOM hurricane is 9/10 days time! This has appeared in a few runs and it is there again in the 12z.

October is the perfect time for GOM hurricanes normally. Last year the season died early because of El Nino but now we are close to La Nina.

Edited September 26 by karyo

[matty40s]

Looks rather pretty now.

 

 

[AderynCoch]

Category 3.

Already tropical storm-force conditions in parts of Florida thanks to the large wind field.

Edited September 26 by AderynCoch

[Metwatch]

Surge starting to overtop a beach in west florida.

Webcam livestream - Cedar Key › West

WEBCAMS.WINDY.COM

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Webcam livestream - Cedar Key › West, provided by Windy.com

Few other webcams looking through the Windy website

https://deanlebaron.roundshot.com/caseykeygulf/#/

[WYorksWeather]

 AderynCoch Yep, an interim update from NHC makes it official.

Quote

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W

ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Another few more hours of strengthening - would not be surprised to see high Cat 3 or low Cat 4 status by landfall.

[WillinGlossop]

Looking at the radar Helene has a wobbly eye… eye replacement cycle? 

[WeatherArc]

Approx 6 hours till landfall, Helene's eyewall has completely closed and she is free to undergo rapid intensification. 

A tropical tornado threat will also materialise this evening when Helene's outer bands make landfall.

Storm surge beginning to make landfall.

 

[Thunder Snow]

Wonder if she'll make cat 4

[AderynCoch]

I'd be surprised if it didn't reach four before landfall. Atmospheric conditions for strengthening are perfect and it's crossing the Loop Current.

[matty40s]

2 hours earlier..