Hurricane KIRK

[Dorsetbred]

All set off we go:

Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.8W
ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.8 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general 
westward to west-north-westward motion is expected to continue 
through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by 
Wednesday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have 
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Kirk is 
likely to become a hurricane by tomorrow and could become a major 
hurricane by midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the centre.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 

Forecasted track

Edited October 2 by Jo Farrow
update title

[Dorsetbred]

This mornings update

Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 38.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the centre of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 38.0 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A gradual 
turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and 
could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the centre.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Satellite view this morning

Satellite Infrared view

Forecasted path

Edited October 1 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024

...NEARBY BUOY FINDS A STRONGER KIRK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 39.2W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Tropical Storm Kirk was 
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 39.2 West. Kirk is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more 
north-westward over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is anticipated and 
Kirk should become a hurricane by tonight, and a major hurricane in 
a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) 
from the centre. A PIRATA Buoy (13008) earlier this morning 
measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a gust to 51 mph 
(83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). A 
PIRATA Buoy 13008 earlier reported a minimum pressure of 990.2 mb 
(29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Latest Satellite IR image

Latest forecast path

Edited October 1 by Dorsetbred

[Thunder Snow]

Kirk becomes a cat 1 hurricane 

[Fen Wolf]

Strong season so far isn’t it

[Jo Farrow]

Could be interesting for the UK weather mid/later next week.

[Lauren]

Great. More rain, just what we need

[Dorsetbred]

This morning's update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO GROW LARGER...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 42.1W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.1 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Latest forecasted track

Latest IR satellite view 

Edited October 2 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update:

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 43.0W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 43.0 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected 
over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the 
north-northwest by the end of the week. 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Kirk 
is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are beginning to spread outward and
could affect portions of Leeward Islands and Bermuda by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Latest satellite image

Forecasted path

 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 45.0W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1645 MI...2645 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 45.0 West.  Kirk is moving 
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue through early Friday.  A turn toward the 
north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast 
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast
of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 

Satellite view

KIRK & LESLIE playing "Chase me...."

Forecasted track

 

[matty40s]

 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 45.9W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 45.9 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north 
and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast 
the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast
of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 

Latest satellite image

Latest satellite IR image

 

Latest forecasted track

Edited October 3 by Dorsetbred

[matty40s]

 

[Lauren]

Does anyone know the closest a Hurricane has come to hitting the UK? 

I really wouldn't be surprised if in a few years they become a thing here

[Daydream Boy]

 Lauren The waters around the UK would need to be a minimum of 80F to sustain a hurricane and the waters around the UK rarely get above 68F. 

[Robert1981]

 Daydream Boy that's only 12 more degrees farient then it could reach the uk with global warming never know in the future.  

[StingJet]

 Lauren Interesting .. Hurricane Debbie 1961 

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/55th-anniversary-of-hurricane-debbie-striking-ireland/
 

Further reading from Wiki, again an interesting read 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_tropical_cyclones

Edited October 3 by StingJet

[Lauren]

 Daydream Boy oh I know that, but with climate change you have have to wonder! 

[Snowspout]

Panic in Jersey/Channel Islands online groups that they'll get a direct hit fron ex-Kirk like some models, notably ICON are suggesting. I've had enough of deep lows and windstorms. I'll be in the UK mainland during whatever happens with Kirk, but after what happened last November I suspect a lot of locals were left traumatised. Hopefully it veers off south to Portugal.

[matty40s]

Ophelia in 2017 was still a hurricane early on 15th October, it hit Ireland and then Scotland on 16th, with record winds strength and damage as an extratropical low.

[WeatherArc]

 Lauren Ive always wondered about it, imo its well within the realm of possibility. Say you have a combination of above average SSTs and then a very favorable interaction with the jetstream that helps the low deepen, give ventilation and outflow even as the waters cool. The hurricane would eventually weaken but if a strong jet can help outflow and give it enough oomph i could see the possibilities of a Cat 1 or atleast tropical storm/depression. Its a rare combo but not out of this world.

Off the top of my head I think I believe the Iberian peninsular has had a couple of close encounters. 

 StingJet thanks for this , will be very interesting to look through.

 

Havent checked in on Kirk in a few days, safe to say my jaw dropped tonight. Look at this beast, mid range Cat 4 and could well make the Cat 5 run before it hits the cooler waters and begins to transition to an extratropical storm before possible impact around UK/Ireland.

Just before we lost visible satellite Kirk was looking absolutely stunning, pronounced Stadium effect with Vortical Hot Towers/CDO constantly at -70c or colder, rotating around a well defined and warm/dry eye. This is a textbook major hurricane. Nice ventilation of outflow east aswell. Could well be 150+mph winds in it already.

 

 

 

[cheese]

 Daydream Boy storms can retain hurricane status over cooler waters though. Hurricane Ella in 1978 was still at Category 4 strength south of Nova Scotia, and Category 3 not far from St John’s in Newfoundland.

 

Hurricane Ginny in 1963 made landfall in Nova Scotia as a fully-fledged Category 2 hurricane

Hurricane Ginny - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Atlantic Canada is closer to the source of hurricanes though, so there’s more chance for hurricanes to speed their way up there before losing tropical characteristics.
 

Edited October 3 by cheese

[FetchCB]

 WeatherArc

My understanding is that as soon as a hurricane interacts with the jet it ceases to be a hurricane. 

By definition hurricanes are self fuelling from the heat of the ocean. 

As soon as it interacts with the jet stream then it transitions into an extratropical system where it's primary fuel is derived from baroclinic sources (which is what drives the Jetstream) 

 

[minus10]

Kirk showing a clear and clean eye now...

 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 48.1W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near 
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the 
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected 
to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a 
faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible 
today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue 
through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Latest satellite image

Latest satellite IR image

Latest forecasted track