Hurricane KIRK

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 minus10 That's beautiful!

[Metwatch]

13 hours ago, cheese said:

That looks quite a bit different to the track of Ginny on the wikipedia page:

 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update on KIRK

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 48.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.9 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and 
north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and 
continue through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Latest IR satellite view

Latest suggested track

 

Edited October 4 by Dorsetbred

[matty40s]

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Beauty. Would like to be in the eye of that one!

[cheese]

 Metwatch the track I posted is for Hurricane Ella in 1978

Edited October 4 by cheese

[Metwatch]

 cheese

Ah my bad, didn't read properly!

[Thunder Snow]

Wonder if he'll make cat 5

[cheese]

 Metwatch not a problem, probably could have made it clearer!

[Fen Wolf]

Need to fly through that eye like the vids on YouTube

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Fen Wolf How is it even safe enough to do that?

[Thunder Snow]

Kirk continues to weaken 

[Fen Wolf]

 *Stormforce~beka* it probably isn’t but I would definitely be up for it!  Might look into it to see if it’s possible from the UK? 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest Update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 50.2 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is 
expected today, followed by a faster north-eastward motion on Sunday 
and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, 
but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to
spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores
on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Latest forecasted track

latest satellite image

Latest IR satellite image

Edited October 5 by Dorsetbred

[matty40s]

There is another thread running on the Storms/Severe Weather section, and Nick has done a short article here...

Ex-Hurricane Kirk threatens southern UK next week, but how common are ex-Hurricanes?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Hurricane Kirk, currently a major cat.4 hurricane, looks to track northeast to arrive across NW Europe as a deep ex-tropical low mid-week. But how common are ex-hurricanes in the UK?

 

[Thunder Snow]

Kirk weakens some more 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK TURNING MORE NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BYSUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 50.3W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 50.3 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to 
continue through tonight. A faster north-eastward motion is expected 
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, 
but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to
spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores
on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Latest satellite IR image

Latest track forecast

Latest satellite image

 

[Fen Wolf]

Love how the SW is bang in the centre of the storms forecasted path

 

come onnnn! 

[matty40s]

 

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Centre Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 49.0W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). An acceleration toward 
the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days 
while Kirk moves across the north-eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will 
remain a large hurricane for the next day or so before 
transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of
the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward
along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today,
and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Latest forecasted track

Latest satellite IR image

Latest satellite image

[wimblettben]

No fun wind event happening for us here in the UK next week then going by the latest model predictions.

 

[Wetterfrosch]

 wimblettben GOOD!!! Even the aftermath of a major hurricane is not what I call fun. No doubt you'll get your share of fun in the coming month while I put my tin hat on and hide under the bed!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 wimblettben I wanted it I'm sad

[Dorsetbred]

Latest update

Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the centre of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 47.7 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An acceleration toward the 
northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days
while Kirk moves across the north-eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will
remain a large hurricane for the next day or so before
transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290
miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of
the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward
along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today,
and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Latest forecasted track

Latest satellite image

[matty40s]