Winter 24-25 Thoughts, long range model musings

[Catbrainz]

 Summer8906 NAO+ is drier overall for the southern half of the U.K. I would say. NAO+ by definition means high pressure to the south low to the north plus with NAO+ lows are more likely to come from the W,NW or N so the airmass tends to be cleaner more rPm and Pm air masses. Where as with NAO- you can get Tm riddled tropical/Azores/Iberian lows shoved into us.

Octobers 2018 and 2022 were both good examples of NAO+ Octobers I’d say. Both decent overall (2022 was admittedly too Septemberish for my liking but still a decent Oct with above average sunshine and rainfall around average) 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Not the best option, but not the worst either!

Like comparing dog sh*t with horse manure! 

[Don]

Latest Met Office contingency planner.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ond_v1.pdf

[Beanz]

 Don very average then!

[Relativistic]

 Atleastitwillbemild I'm not convinced about this winter being wet, though that's not saying much as I'm not convinced of anything yet.

I don't buy into the idea that the UK climate will forever be extremely wet. It was only two years ago that we had concerning drought conditions. I think we're more likely to swing between extended wet and dry periods, but with an overall trend of gradually increasing rainfall totals.

[Summer8906]

 Beanz At least it's not predicting a continuing deluge, which is something.

I have to say I am amazed they class the equivalent 3-month period in 2019 as near average for both precipitation and temp and calm for wind. I clearly remember the last three months of 2019 as being extremely wet, and often rather windy! If late 2019 was 'near average' I hate to think what an unusually wet and windy end to the year would be like.

Also October 2019 classed as 'near average': it was an extremely wet and dull month, at least here, if I remember right. Dry days on the 6th and around the 27th-29th and that was about it, if I remember right. Wetter than 2021 and 2023 IIRC, which is quite something, and more unsettled than 2020 which featured 10 fairly dry days around mid-month.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Summer8906

[TheOgre]

I’m thinking a front loaded winter this year with a chilly and dryish theme.

I’ll say a cold and dry November leading to a cold and moderately wet December with scattered snow events mostly in the north. January and February both average temperatures and drier than average. Then a cold and wet March.

Edited October 2, 2024 by TheOgre

[Catbrainz]

 Relativistic Yeah the recent wetness has mostly been down to bad luck. For example if the Euro low had been 50-100 miles further south September would have been a widely settled and dry month (the Midlands deluge would have happened over France instead and they’ve had a very wet September too) 

[Chesil View]

Here we are back previewing the roller-coaster that will be the model thread as autumn turns to winter.

All I will say for now is that if it can't be somewhat colder than average with some snow events away from the usual suspects( for those like myself who enjoy that sort of thing) then at least let it be mild and dry for those who are worried about heating bills.

Any but mild and wet. Please.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Chesil View

[Kasim Awan]

Surface condition analogues for this Winter are promising. Cold June & September has a cold winter mean.

[SqueakheartLW]

Personally I think we saw a pattern shift back in June to cooler conditions and it appeared to time with the switch from El Nino to La Nina.

Something tells me that unlike the previous triple dip La Nina which was mostly dominated by above average temps (Except late 2020 into the early part of 2021) there's something about the new La Nina which has ushered in a cooler period.

Whether we are also entering a drier period too or not is still up for grabs. Were June and August dry exceptions in a continuation of the wet pattern or September an exception in the now drier pattern.

A cold and dry winter would be an ideal outcome for winter 2024/25. We are certainly overdue a cold and dry one.

[damianslaw]

 SqueakheartLW A cold dry winter or a near average dry winter I feel would be the best option, after a very wet 18 months or so. Drier weather in winter tends to be associated with cooler sunnier conditions. 

The last cold/near average dry winter was probably 2010-11, overall a cold but not especially so winter despite the freezing December. Winter 05-06 a more consistently dry near average winter.

Ive commented before on the propensity for very wet periods to suddenly change to very dry ones, normally we see a flip from a very wet month to very dry, might Nov or Dec be the flip?..

[WeatherArc]

Ill admit, im often someone who likes milder winters however after the performance of summer, and that milder winters often come with just a little bit of rain, I do find myself craving those cold, crisp and dry winter days. I agree with everyone here that we are overdue a cold winter, when was our last one? 2018 is the last one that really comes to mind for me.

All eyes on the long range models for me right now, cfs has lots of high pressure ridges but does try to bring atleast a cooler airmass down around Christmas. Its pretty much hopeless to look at these things this far out but ill do it anyway and pray 

[SunnyG]

Long range forecasts are near useless, but hopefully it will be dry and not too cold. I hate snow with a passion so I hope I won't see any this winter (or ever actually).

[CharlieBear9]

 SunnyG Not unlike the others then.

[damianslaw]

 WeatherArc Our last consistently cold winter was 09-10. Winter 10-11 was one of two halves, a very cold first half, much milder second half. Winters 12-13, 17-18 and 20-21 fell into the episodic category, decent cold at times but never sustained. 

Edited October 2, 2024 by damianslaw

[Frigid]

Yes we're way overdue a cold, snowy winter. No wonder the forum goes mental whenever the models show a looming cold spell, pretty sure winter is the busiest period. 

[Petorious]

Might be cold, might not be..

[Metwatch]

Colder than summer I reckon.

[Don]

 Metwatch Slightly perhaps.

[northwestsnow]

ECMF seasonal is taking its time ..

Normally 1st of the month but nothing for October,yet.

[SqueakheartLW]

 Metwatch

Do you think it would be possible to have summer colder than winter if we saw raging sub Tropical SW winds all winter and Arctic northerlies all summer

[Metwatch]

 SqueakheartLW

Unlikely as daytime maxes would be much higher in summer with the stronger sunshine, whereas in winter the sun is almost non existent and with constant cloud cover, that would limit temperatures to 11-13C most of the time. However night temps probably wouldn't be overly different, Maybe a few degress cooler in early summer, mainly June when there is slightly more of a cold reserve of air left in the Arctic compared to July - August.

Edited October 3, 2024 by Metwatch

[*Stormforce~beka*]

16c on Christmas day and raining!

[Weatherman_93]

 *Stormforce~beka* perfect conditions!